The Nominees: Album Of The Year
The last general category up in our pre-Grammys preview is also the biggest award of the night: Album of the Year.
As has been discussed on this blog the last two years, this is the closest equivalent to a Best Picture for the Grammys. Album of the Year recognizes a full catalog of musicianship, and historically, this is the one category the Grammys have actually done a fairly good job of nominating the best in addition to the biggest. That being said, that has not always (or even often) translated to the best body of work actually winning the prize. The last several years have proven that point: Beyoncé twice losing despite having the biggest AND best album, Frank Ocean losing to Mumford And Sons, and in what should actually be considered a crime against humanity, Kendrick Lamar's To Pimp A Butterfly losing to Taylor Swift. Fortunately, though I will be angered if Lamar is once again the victim of a robbery, there really is not a weak nominee in this year's field. So, here are the nominees for Album of the Year, in order from least to most likely to win, according to odds from GoldDerby.com.
"Awaken, My Love" // Childish Gambino
Odds: 100-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 5th (in 2016)
Strongest Song: "Redbone"
Weakest Song: "California"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 6.5/10
Quick take:
This is the only nominee I really can't see winning, and oddsmakers agree. It was fairly stunning it was even nominated, given Childish Gambino isn't yet a huge name in the music scene, AND this album wasn't a huge critical darling. I think Donald Glover might be the most talented person on the planet, and I meant that honestly. He's a brilliant comedic writer AND comedic actor. He's a compelling dramatic actor and an award-winning director. And of course, a ridiculously talented rapper and now he does psychedelic funk/soul? He may genuinely rule the world some day. All of this is why it pains me to say this: "Awaken, My Love" is easily the worst of the nominees here. It's not a bad album by any means, and "Redbone" was one of the best songs of the entire year. But the experimental nature of the whole album means that for every high like "Redbone", there are weird clunkers like "California" and "Boogieman." I love Glover, but hope he doesn't snag this one over more deserving nominees.
4:44 //Jay-Z
Odds: 66-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Strongest Song: "4:44"
Weakest Song: "Moonlight"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 9/10
Quick take:
Jay-Z's best work in years recently came in at #2 on my list of 2017's best albums. It's a marvelous work, with no real weaknesses (though I wasn't overly fond of the not-exactly-subtle "Moonlight"). The titular track was, in my opinion, truly one of the best songs of 2017, and what's more, I don't think it's all that unlikely 4:44 takes this award. It's a long-ish shot, to be sure. After all, the Grammys have almost never awarded Rap with the highest honor, and if they're going to this year, won't it be to Kendrick Lamar, who had the bigger and more acclaimed album? On the flip side, though, consider this: Jay-Z did earn more nominations overall than Lamar. And, if we're going to delve into voters' mentalities, there are a couple considerations here: for one, Jay might earn a win as remuneration for his wife's snub last year (stupid reasoning, but it's not my reasoning we're talking about here), and if the thought is, "let's finally give it to a Rap album", isn't it possible they find 4:44 more palatable than DAMN., and Jay-Z's career more deserving of this crowning achievement? I think so.
Melodrama // Lorde
Odds: 3-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Strongest Song: "Writer In The Dark"
Weakest Song: "Hard Feelings/Loveless"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8/10
Quick take:
Oddsmakers see this award as a 3-horse race, evidently, and Lorde's odds have only increased in recent weeks. I'm surprised she didn't have more hype originally; after all, Melodrama was the co-critical darling of 2017 (along with DAMN.), and as we've seen the last two years, young female pop artists are certainly capable of winning this award. I actually foresee a scenario playing out where Melodrama does in fact win, but I'll save that for my official predictions. Anyways, win or not, Lorde's work here is quite good. I personally preferred the production and artistry on her debut album, but Melodrama is captivatingly (and refreshingly) vulnerable, and her vocals as enthralling as ever. I agree with the consensus that Lorde is quite possibly the best young pop talent out there.
24K Magic // Bruno Mars
Odds: 3-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 2nd (in 2016)
Strongest Song: "Calling All My Lovelies"
Weakest Song: "Straight Up And Down"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 7.5/10
Quick take:
I re-listened to Bruno's album for the first time in many moons this past week, and liked it a lot more than I remembered. Look, there's no denying Bruno Mars is a one-trick pony when it comes to songwriting. But it's a trick he almost always pulls off well, putting his extreme vocal prowess to good use, crooning sexy love songs to women. Despite all the addictive, energetic singles that came from 24K Magic, my personal favorite was "Calling All My Lovelies", an extremely catchy and sneakily heartfelt track. The boppy come-ons don't work quite as well in "Perm" or "Straight Up And Down", but he still pulls it off with a smile on his face. If the Grammys go the traditional route, this album should absolutely be the favorite to win. Not only was it one of the biggest in late 2016 and early-mid 2017, it's the kind of generationally-crossing crowd-pleaser that make it appeal to all types of voters.
DAMN. // Kendrick Lamar
Odds: 11-10
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Strongest Song: "DNA."
Weakest Song: "GOD."
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 9.5/10
Quick take:
Much like Beyoncé's self-titled album in 2014, DAMN. was both the biggest AND the best-reviewed album of the nominees. Thus, no surprise at all that it's the heavy favorite to win here. Don't be surprised in the least, though, if like that Beyoncé album before it, DAMN. gets upset for this award, for reasons touched on briefly and which will be expounded upon in the full-blown predictions (coming tomorrow). At any rate, whether Lamar wins this award or not, he and his fans can rest assured his legacy is intact. This is the 3rd consecutive album of his (out of just 4) that has been reviewed as the best album of the year by critics, and for the first time, the rapper had both a #1 song and THE #1 album in a year. DAMN. isn't quite the heavy-hitting tracklist good kid, m.A.A.d city was, nor the literary masterpiece To Pimp A Butterfly, but is another example of mind-blowing production and hard-hitting material. And who knows? Maybe this will in fact be the year he gets his Album Of The Year Grammy.
Not only is this always the biggest and most-anticipated award nearly every year anyway, this year's race for Album Of The Year is absolutely thrilling. There are 5 solid-to-spectacular nominees, and 4 of them legitimately could win. It all depends on the way the voting body decides. Will the bad optics of shutting out black artists yet again lead the otherwise traditionalists to this time cast a vote for 4:44 or DAMN.? Will the safe pop choice once again win out, in 24K Magic? Will Melodrama split the difference and take it? Any of those scenarios could play out, and I wouldn't be surprised. In just over 24 hours, we'll know!