2017 Couch Power 10 + Bowl Simulation, Week 11
This past weekend may turn out to be the defining weekend of the college football regular season. And no, I'm not referring to North Carolina's first conference victory in over 365 days, though it was marvelous. I'm referring to the fact that Week 11 featured a record-breaking 8 matchups between ranked teams. It was a slate so packed I had a hard time deciding which game to use as the lead image.
Yet, as dramatic as the stakes were, Week 11 turned out to be notable for how undramatic most of the games were. Out of all of those ranked matchups, only two (Oklahoma State-Iowa State and Alabama-Mississippi State) were decided in the final minutes. Most were essentially over by the start of the 4th quarter, if not halftime. What happens when so many ranked teams win/lose by so much in one week? Ranking chaos. Here's my stab at it for this week:
1. Alabama (10-0)
Georgia's shellacking left a void at #1 that everyone assumed should go to Bama, provided they avoided upset. And indeed, the Tide come in as my top team, for no other reason than in terms of talent and coaching, they're the best team in the country, period. However, I'd be lying if I told you I thought Alabama had really earned the #1 spot to this point. They've still faced an easy gamut of opponents this year, and in their sole games against decent/good teams, they've a. had to hold off Texas A&M, b. struggled to close out overmatched LSU at home, and now c. needed a thrilling 4th-quarter rally to beat Mississippi State. Still, credit where credit is due: Bama avoided the upset bug and pulled out a gutsy road win despite some key injuries, and as usual, are the team to beat.
2. Miami (9-0)
For the last several weeks, I considered the media to be underrating Miami's abilities- now I'm worried the pendulum might swing in the other direction. This is, after all, the team that is a few freak plays away from losing to Florida State, Georgia Tech, and my Tar Heels. That being said, one can't have watched the shellackings the Canes have put on Virginia Tech and Notre Dame the last two weeks and still assume that this team can't hang with the big boys. Miami's unbeaten, they have two quality wins under their belt, and are clicking on both sides of the ball...what's not to like?
3. Oklahoma (9-1)
I'm tempted to throw in the other unbeaten teams at the 3 and 4 spot out of mini-protest to the inherent biases that keep the 'little guys' out, but I do agree with the committee's central goal to genuinely get the best 4 teams in the playoff. And, blemished record and all, Oklahoma is one of the best teams there is, presently. I'm two weeks removed from chastising this team for a run of unimpressive performances against inferior teams, and a week removed from chiding their lack of defense in a win over Ok State. But the Sooners have responded to the criticism, with 2 consecutive wins over Top 10 teams, and in last week's 38-20 win over #6 TCU, both defense and Baker Mayfield's offense showed up in full force. Nobody wants to play this team right now.
4. Clemson (9-1)
Clemson's impressive overall body of work hasn't gone away. Nor has the fact that they are the defending champions. Nor has the fact that they are the favorite to win the ACC. What has changed, though, is the quality of play: ever since the loss at Syracuse, the defense has been exposed far too often. On the other side of things, Kelly Bryant has been less confident at QB, and the effect has trickled down to the whole offense. The Tigers, at their best, are still as much a contender as anyone else, but they'll have to pick up the play on both sides of the ball if they want to beat Miami or even (gasp!) avoid being upset vs. a suddenly plucky South Carolina team.
5. Wisconsin (10-0)
While a home win over now-4-loss Iowa team isn't the kind of victory you want to hang your season on, Saturday was very important for the Badgers. Playing a ranked team fresh off a 30-point demolition of Ohio State, Wisconsin had the chance to prove themselves against a solid opponent for perhaps the first time this year. And, despite 4 turnovers (3 of them INTs, because, #JoshuaJacksonForHeisman), they were thoroughly up to the test, going to the well of Wisconsin football: gashing runs by their stud running back, and staunch defense.
6. Auburn (8-2)
Uhhhhh, wow. When I said last week that Auburn controlled their playoff destiny, I meant it somewhat half-heartedly. Surely they wouldn't beat Georgia-Alabama-Georgia (in the SEC Championship) back-to-back-to-back, right? Well, given how easily Auburn dominated the #1 team in every aspect of the game, it's not hard to imagine that exact scenario playing out. Especially when you consider how vulnerable Alabama looked last weekend. Buckle up, because that Malzahn spread offense is flying, and that Tiger defense is tough. How did these team lose twice??
7. Georgia (9-1)
I'll admit, I was very surprised, not even by the 40-17 result but by the loss in general. I knew Georgia were in for a tough rivalry road matchup, but the Bulldogs I had seen were punishing on D, and had the most lethal rushing attack in the country. The Georgia I saw on Saturday were #NotMyDawgs. It was the sort of blowout that could break a promising season, but I still think this team has proven too much and is too good of a team to let that happen. They still can win their way back in to the playoff, and may even have a chance to do it by exacting revenge in the SEC Championship game.
8. Central Florida (9-0)
UCF, you did nothing to deserve this one-spot drop in my rankings. You took care of business, beating an inferior team by nearly 30 points. But I just couldn't justify keeping you guys ahead of both Georgia and Auburn. You understand, right? You're still my favorites to crash the New Year's Six party!
9. Ohio State (8-2)
The Buckeyes have officially established themselves as the most maddening team in the country. So much talent on both sides of the ball, and yet they lose to Oklahoma and Iowa by a combined 46 points. So much lackadaisical play on both sides of the ball in those losses (and in the first half against Penn State) and yet they respond with a 4th-quarter rally for the ages against then-#2 Penn State, and this past weekend, a 48-3 obliteration of then-#12 Michigan State. Here's what's even crazier, yet perhaps fitting: they're not actually out of the playoff race. I know, there's no way a team with two blowout losses should sniff the playoff, but imagine Ohio State wins the Big Ten, Bama wins the SEC, and Oklahoma wins the Big 12...one of Clemson and Miami has to lose, right? Thanks to Notre Dame's loss, the committee would be forced to choose between a 2-loss Ohio State and a non-champion (Georgia, Miami, or Wisconsin, probably), and I think we all know how much the committee will want to shoehorn the Buckeyes in there.
10. Notre Dame (8-2)
The Fighting Irish fans weren't the only ones cursing their team's capitulation at Miami last weekend. The Convicts' big win over the Catholics also weakened the impact of Georgia's signature win, adding to a miserable day for Bulldog fans. If Notre Dame can rally for two victories over a decent Navy and a tough Stanford, however, they'll still find themselves in the New Year's Six.
Just missed: Penn State, USC, TCU, Oklahoma State, Memphis, Anthony Ratliff-Williams (but actually, watch this)
Bonus: New Year's Six Bowl Simulation
Cotton Bowl
Auburn vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta Bowl
USC vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl
Clemson vs. Georgia
Peach Bowl
Central Florida vs. Penn State
ROSE BOWL (Semifinal)
Miami vs. Oklahoma
SUGAR BOWL (Semifinal)
Alabama vs. Wisconsin