If The World Cup Draw Were Held Today (Oct. 2017)
Well. There is a whole lot to talk about, from FIFA rulings on proceedings (more on that later) to actual match proceedings, all of which affect this final installment of the World Cup Draw Preview.
Indeed, we are just about a month and a half away from the real thing, and in fact, all but 8 of the 32 places have been booked. In case you live under a rock, or still believe that soccer is only a. for the effeminate, b. for Socialists , c. all of the above: just a heads up that, defying 93% statistical chances, the United States failed to qualify for the World Cup. It's stunning, shocking, disappointing....all emotions I will unpack in a more thorough piece. But while you may not have thought it from the domestic news coverage, this actually wasn't even the most shocking exclusion. Chile, 2-time defending South American champions will also miss a flight to Russia, as will the Netherlands, who have appeared in the last two World Cup semifinals. There was a chance for the entire United Kingdom to remain in contention, which would have been wild, but Wales and Scotland fluffed their lines with disappointing results in the final match. Anyways, clearing through all the dust, here's how the draw could play out:
The Qualified Teams
To determine the 31 squads (in addition to hosts Russia) who would qualify, I went by their current/final standings in their qualifying groups.
In cases of tiebreakers within groups, or to determine playoff results, I relied on the September FIFA Rankings, which are far from a perfect determination of quality, but hey, it's what they use, so what else can I do?
Most teams have officially qualified at this point. Those teams have been italicized throughout the draw.
The Seeding
For Pot 1, Russia was seeded first (per tradition), and the next 7 spots were allocated in order based on the FIFA Rankings of the qualified teams
HERE'S WHERE FIFA'S RECENT RULING CHANGED THINGS: typically, World Cups have seeded the pots by Confederations-- the previous installments of this exercise have done the same thing. However, FIFA recently decided to instead seed all 4 pots by FIFA ranking. Thus, all 4 pots pictured were listed from top to bottom by their September rankings.
It was still important, though, to ensure that there wouldn't be confederation overload in a single group-- which would be against FIFA rules, so to avoid having more than 1 of any confederation in a group (or in Europe's case, more than 2), I would occasionally have to re-draw a team until they found a group they could legally be in.
With ALL that in mind, here were the spots for the final draw:
The Draw
To simulate the draw process, I used a number generator from www.random.org
With Pot A, I generated a random integer 1-8 to distribute the seeded teams to the tops of their respective groups
For the remaining Pots, I used the 1-8 range to randomly generate the teams' group, and a 2-4 range to determine their position in said group-- with the aforementioned exception of needing to re-draw for confederations' sake.
Here was how the final draw played out:
The Ramifications
I don't know if it was the new seeding format, but this draw didn't render quite as many juicy storylines as the last one's did.
There are a lot of tough groups, and therefore, it would make for a very entertaining Group Stage, but the closest thing we'd have to a bona fide Group of Death would have to be Group F. Serbia and South Korea have name recognition, if not recent tournament success, and Brazil and France in the same group?? Ouch. Blame FIFA's nonsensical rankings.
Two noteworthy teams that get a fairly favorable draw: one, hosts Russia. After their lackluster showing in the Confederations Cup this summer, they didn't exactly inspire hope in their fans of a run in the World Cup. But, though Uruguay would be favored to top the group, and Senegal's attack and Northern Ireland's defense could both prove tricky matchups, Russia would be favored to progress from the group as well. Secondly, Mexico, who got absolutely brutalized in our last two mock draws, breathes a little easier in this one. Messi and Argentina are their bogey team, but they should and would best Australia and Tunisia.
Anyways, here's how I see this draw going down-- note that this would see a Germany-France matchup in the Round of 16....woof:
Quarterfinals
Uruguay vs. Belgium
Germany vs. Poland
Portugal vs. Argentina
Brazil vs. Spain
Semifinals
Belgium vs. Germany
Argentina vs. Brazil
Final
Germany vs. Brazil
(If possible, all roads would lead to Brazil vs. France for yours truly. Sadly, in this scenario, the double-whammy of being in the same group and that group's loser facing Germany would be a hill too steep to overcome.)