Couch Power 10 + Conference Predictions
A friend/loyal fan/avid reader (AND NO IT WASN'T ME OR ANYONE RELATED TO ME, BACK OFF) asked me the other day why I hadn't been doing Power Rankings for College Basketball like I had for College Football. I don't really have an answer other than: Whoops. I totally meant to, especially as February and March come around, and my emotional investment in College Basketball reaches the same level that it's always at for College Football. However, my mind went from being all football all the time to all music/movies/awards show all the time, and before I knew it, the regular season was ending with UNC pummeling Duke (you knew I had to bring it up). So, here's my much belated first, and quite possibly last, Power Rankings for College Basketball before the Madness commences next week.
1. Gonzaga (32-1)
Yeah, I said it. Do I actually think Gonzaga is the best team in the nation? Probably not. Do I think they're going to win the Championship? Definitely not. But I do think they've earned a top ranking in a year with no real standout teams. Here's the justification: when they looked to be on pace to finish 34-0, nobody was questioning their #1 ranking. Now, with an 8-point loss to a decent team, they're suddenly overrated? Give me a break. This team has wins over Tennessee, Iowa State, Florida, and Arizona and just clinched the WCC title with a double-digit win over Top 20 St Mary's for the 3rd time this season. Ignore the Zags at your own risk.
2. UCLA (28-3)
It seems like every year there's a top-ranked team that the Committee inexplicably undervalues (last year it was Michigan State). This year, it appears to be UCLA. Even with just 3 losses, most projections have the Bruins at a 3 seed at most. Absurd. UCLA might not play much defense, but they have the best offense in the country, a bona fide star in Lonzo Ball, and own wins over Kentucky, Michigan, Oregon and Arizona. Oh, and by the way their 3 losses were all competitive losses to tournament teams. What am I missing?
3. Villanova (28-3)
Here's the thing: I don't think the defending champions are as good as they were last year-- and no, that's not just my heartached bias speaking. Here's the other thing: I'm not sure that matters, because a. They're still really good, and b. The field isn't as good as last year. They aren't indestructible, as Butler has shown us, but wins over Purdue, Notre Dame, Virginia and the Big East gamut prove that the talks of a repeat championship are completely justified.
4. Kansas (28-3)
Overrated. Next?
Okay, okay. I'll elaborate: Kansas is very good. They'll probably be the top seed. But once again, they have a clear deficiency (in this case, their post game) that people are overlooking because they're tearing through the big 12 as they always do. Once again, they're going to bow out of the tournament earlier than they should. It's the same story year after year after year. I mean, what they're doing is impressive but their only notable non-conference win was a buzzer beater victory over a half-strength Duke team? DON'T BUY, SELL.
5. Oregon (27-4)
The Pac-12 teams are nearly dead even in my book. Though they have slightly inferior wins and worse losses than their cohorts, Oregon is probably-- scratch that, definitely the best tournament team of the 3; a rare blend of exhilarating talent and veteran leadership.
6. Arizona (27-4)
Arizona ranks the lowest of the 3 Pac-12 teams because they lack the win pedigree of UCLA and got curbstomped in their one meeting with Oregon. But make no mistake, they are a solid, talented side.
7a. Kentucky (26-5)
This isn't John Calipari's best team by any stretch of the imagination, and they're not going to win it all. But this is far from a failed season. Kentucky cleaned up the SEC by holding off an extremely hot Florida team, and enter Conference Tourney time as the clear conference favorite.
7b. North Carolina (26-6)
I actually think my Tar Heels are better than a few of the teams ranked ahead of us at this point, but I can't really justify putting us ahead of Kentucky when they have the superior record and the head-to-head result. Look, I think we're going to make a run at the National Championship, I truly do. But I kind of don't like the hype that's begun to be generated for this side, because I worry it drowns out some deficiencies this team has. We got 0 quality wins on the road this season, and defense and point guard play (two crucial tournament aspects) are wildly inconsistent, phenomenal one game and absent the next. The ACC Tournament might be a good barometer of where we actually stand.
9. Baylor (25-6)
Given the way the Bears played down the stretch, it's easy to forget they were the #1 team in the country just several weeks back. Yes, Baylor enters the postseason with very little momentum, but one look at their wins (Oregon, Louisville, Michigan State, Xavier, West Virginia) tells you this team has talent out the tail.
10. Louisville (24-7)
This iteration of Rick Pitino's Cardinals is nothing flashy, but they're a typical tough matchup: physical, big and couples smothering defense with at least one lights-out guard. They don't have a single bad loss on their resumé, and own wins over Purdue, Kentucky, Wichita State, Duke and Notre Dame. Look out for them.
Close behind: West Virginia, SMU, Purdue, Butler, Florida
Bonus: Conference Tournament Predictions!
ACC
Will Win: Louisville
Could Win: North Carolina
Plays Themselves Into Tournament: Wake Forest
Big 12
Will Win: Kansas
Could Win: West Virginia
Plays Themselves Into Tournament: Kansas State
Big East
Will Win: Villanova
Could Win: Butler
Plays Themselves Into Tournament: Seton Hall
Big Ten
Will Win: Wisconsin
Could Win: Purdue
Plays Themselves Into Tournament: Iowa
Pac-12
Will Win: Oregon
Could Win: UCLA
Plays Themselves Into Tournament: USC
SEC
Will Win: Kentucky
Could Win: Florida
Plays Themselves Into Tournament: Arkansas