2017 Grammy Predictions
Tonight, the 59th Grammys Ceremony will take place in L.A. Though the awards have often been besotted by criticisms of valuing commercial success over critically acclaimed music (criticisms I find valid, for what it’s worth), the show remains the premier music awards show. And, though they often evade glory, many wonderful and deserving artists and bands are typically nominees, and that is no different this year. If you want to read a full preview, I basically already did that, so read that here!
In addition, if you’re curious about all the nominees, you can find them listed nicely here. But this is devoted to my best guess as to what will win. I’m not guaranteeing a high success rate because, let’s be honest, who knows what will win? Just when you think you have the Grammys figured out, they award Beck over Beyoncé one year, and then Taylor Swift over Kendrick Lamar the next year. But I can try! Here goes:
Best Music Video
“Formation” - Beyoncé
“Gosh” - Jamie xx
“River” - Leon Bridges
“Up & Up” - Coldplay
“Upside Down & Inside Out” - OK Go
Will Win: “Formation”
Could Win: “Upside Down & Inside Out”
Should Win: “Formation”
Anything BUT: “Gosh”
One of the many iconic images from the "Formation" video
This is a category with some quality nominees: I love the recognition of Coldplay, Leon Bridges' video is beautiful, OK Go are the champions/original gamechangers of music videos; even "Gosh" has a pretty sweet video, though I'm neither wild about the song nor familiar with the artist. Yet, anything other than a Beyoncé victory would qualify as a major upset. The "Formation" video, which announced the forthcoming Lemonade, arguably made more waves than the track itself. The stunning cinematography, depicting Beyoncé amidst different themes of black America, set the tone for the entire album, easily the artist's most political work thus far.
Best Country Album
Big Day In A Small Town - Brandy Clark
Full Circle - Loretta Lynn
Hero - Maren Morris
A Sailor’s Guide To Earth - Sturgill Simpson
Ripcord - Keith Urban
Will Win: A Sailor’s Guide To Earth
Could Win: Hero
Should Win: Hero
Anything BUT: Ripcord
I will confess I am not a country fan, and never have been. But two artists actually made me sit down and listen to an entire country album, and what's crazy is I liked both enough to listen to them multiple times: those two were Sturgill Simpson and Maren Morris, both of whom are multiple nominees tonight. Simpson is likely to take this award, considering he's also nominated for Album of the Year. He is clearly the superior musician of these nominees, and his backing band is a treasure. I'm partial to Morris, however; whereas Simpson's music is so experimental it's hard to even qualify it as Country at times, Morris makes no mistake about her genre while still adding enough crossover appeal for haters like myself. As long as Keith Urban's futile pop-country attempt doesn't score an upset trophy, all will be good.
Best Rap Album
and the Anonymous Nobody. . . - De La Soul
Blank Face LP - Schoolboy Q
Coloring Book - Chance The Rapper
Major Key - DJ Khaled
The Life Of Pablo - Kanye West
Views - Drake
Will Win: Views
Could Win: Coloring Book
Should Win: Coloring Book
Anything BUT: Major Key
I've already accepted that Drake will take this award, considering he pretty much won the 2016 Rap Crown. Doesn't mean I have to like it. I was actually tempted to vote Views as my Anything BUT, but ultimately the Grammys recognizing DJ Khaled would probably be a little more embarrassing. I will admit I haven't listened to all of each nominated album, but there's no question in my mind this award should go to Chance The Rapper. Coloring Book, created independent of any major label effortlessly blends rap and gospel in a way that appealed to both bases without feeling phony.
Drake will get himself some Grammys...but will he ever find love?
Best Urban Contemporary Album
Anti - Rihanna
Lemonade - Beyoncé
Malibu - Anderson .Paak
Ology - Gallant
We Are King - KING
Will Win: Lemonade
Could Win: Anti
Should Win: Lemonade
Anything BUT: Anti
This should, if all goes according to plan, largely be Beyoncé's night, even if she does lose out to Adele on some of the general awards (see: later in this article). Deservedly so; Lemonade was the rare commercial smash/critical darling tour de force. The only thing that might unseat it in some of the genre-specific awards is Rihanna's album. Anti was also the best critically received album the latter starlet had released, largely forgoing traditional radio singles in favor of a more complete record. Still, it'd be a shame if it took the prize; not because Anti isn't good, but rather because Beyoncé has essentially paved the way for artists like Rihanna, and for the former's greatest work to not be recognized would be borderline criminal.
Best Alternative Album
22, A Million - Bon Iver
Blackstar - David Bowie
The Hope Six Demolition Project - PJ Harvey
A Moon Shaped Pool - Radiohead
Post Pop Depression - Iggy Pop
Will Win: Blackstar
Could Win: 22, A Million OR A Moon Shaped Pool
Should Win: 22, A Million
Anything BUT: The Hope Six Demolition Project
This is a LOADED category, with three albums that could have easily been contenders for Album of the Year. Between those big 3, you've got to imagine the award will fall to the late David Bowie. Critics and columnists alike have assured readers "it's not just a posthumous honor," but let's be real: this boils down to the death of a music legend, and the fact that this is the Grammys' last chance to reward an icon they hardly ever have. Personally, I think 22, A Million is the only work of the nominees that is actually a high-quality work and isn't riding the wave of nostalgia/name recognition. I would love to see Bon Iver get the trophy, even though it would mean denying Bowie.
Expect a posthumous Grammy for Sir David Bowie
Best Pop Vocal Album
25 - Adele
Confident - Demi Lovato
Dangerous Woman - Ariana Grande
Purpose - Justin Bieber
This Is Acting - Sia
Will Win: 25
Could Win: Purpose
Should Win: Dangerous Woman
Anything BUT: Purpose
This is another Grammy chock-full of big name nominees. Anything but 25 would be a massive upset, obviously, though considering the enormous success of Bieber's album, and the fact that Purpose is also up for Album of the Year, I suppose it's not out of the question. I am more than okay with Adele winning anything and everything, but the phrase "Pop Vocal" does render me in favor of an Ariana Grande surprise victory. Love the petite pop star or hate her, there's no track on Dangerous Woman that doesn't fully show off her unbelievable vocal range and musical variety.
Best New Artist
Anderson .Paak
The Chainsmokers
Chance The Rapper
Kelsea Ballerini
Maren Morris
Will Win: The Chainsmokers
Could Win: Chance The Rapper
Should Win: Chance The Rapper
Anything BUT: The Chainsmokers
It pains me to think that the fun time frat bros that seem to have accidentally stumbled upon success might beat out two artists changing the Rap game and two young women influencing the Country genre. Yet, The Chainsmokers have two major things going for them: the smash radio hits "Closer" and "Don't Let Me Down," and the fact that they don't run the risk of having votes cancelled out like Anderson v. Chance, or Kelsea v. Maren.
"It's just, like, so sick that we won, guys. (Belch.) Heh heh heh."
-The Chainsmokers' acceptance speech, probably.
Song Of The Year
“7 Years” - Lukas Graham
“Formation” - Beyoncé
“Hello” - Adele
“I Took A Pill In Ibiza” - Mike Posner
“Love Yourself” - Justin Bieber
Will Win: “Hello”
Could Win: “Formation”
Should Win: “Love Yourself”
Anything BUT: “7 Years”
The annual question: what is the difference between Song and Record of the Year? Apparently, the former is more about the actual sung vocal melody, whereas the latter award recognizes the full production of a track. In this regard, expect another easy Adele victory, but hey, how about some love for Justin Bieber? He had one of the most radio-played albums of the year, which of course doesn't equate high quality, but "Love Yourself" is both a pleasantly melodious tune and a clever "Go F*** Yourself" kissoff track. I wouldn't mind Bieber snatching this one at least.
Record Of The Year
“7 Years” - Lukas Graham
“Formation” - Beyoncé
“Hello” - Adele
“Stressed Out” - TWENTY ØNE PILØTS
“Work” - Rihanna feat. Drake
Will Win: “Formation”
Could Win: “Hello”
Should Win: “Formation”
Anything BUT: “7 Years”
Though either "Hello" or "Formation" could easily sweep these awards, I would expect them to split, with the impressive audio production of Beyoncé's track giving it the edge in this case. Also, let's get one thing clear: if you've read any of my previous entries regarding music, you know my undying hatred for "7 Years." But, I rest easy knowing that vomit-fest of an attempt at sentimentality is going head-to-head with the two titans of these awards.
Album Of The Year
25 - Adele
Lemonade - Beyoncé
Purpose - Justin Bieber
A Sailor’s Guide To The Earth - Sturgill Simpson
Views - Drake
Will Win: 25
Could Win: Lemonade
Should Win: Lemonade
Anything BUT: Views
Just to be clear, there is no way in Hades that anyone but Adele or Beyoncé wins this award. But still, if by any chance the Grammys finally recognize a Rap album for Album of the Year, and do so by rewarding DRAKE?!? I will lose it.
That being said, tonight is about the two superstar women. Adele and Beyoncé is one of the best awards show head-to-heads since....I don't know...Birdman and Boyhood? This is an incredible clash, and it will be fascinating to see which direction the Grammy voters take. Under normal circumstances, Lemonade would be a shoo-in. It sold nearly as well as 25 (and far more than last year's winner from Taylor Swift), and was far better critically received (than both 25 and last year's winner from Taylor Swift....yes, I'm a little bitter). However, the Grammys have this thing where they, er, tend to not give general awards to Black artists. If Beyoncé couldn't beat out Beck and co. two years ago, it's hard to imagine she'll beat out universally-loved Adele, who has already conquered the Grammys twice before. Maybe the Grammys will try to reverse course this year, but I have to imagine voters will find Adele's work a little more, shall we say, palatable.
Yep. Likely a picture that will be repeated tonight.