2016-17 NBA Season Preview
A story of controversy, lawsuits, revenge, betrayal, and coming of age. No, this isn’t a preview for the newest soap opera. It’s a preview of the 2016-2017 NBA season. I probably say this every year, but I am so excited for this year’s NBA season. The offseason brought craziness partially due to free agency, partially due to the Olympics, and partially due to other headlines surrounding players’ personal lives. Things could play out in so many different ways. I wanted to offer what I think to be the top five most exciting things to follow this season, as well as a couple other notes about the upcoming season.
I’ll start with probably the most glaring of the storylines: Durant to the Warriors. How does this all play out? By now you probably know about much of the drama, but here’s a brief recap. Durant left OKC. He chose the Warriors over OKC, Boston, and San Antonio. The Warriors defeated the Thunder last year in the Western Conference Finals 4-3, after being down 3-1. Warriors were 73-9 last year. Steph Curry of the Warriors is the 2-time reigning MVP. Russell Westbrook was not very happy about Durant’s decision, nor were fans of OKC. Now that we’ve covered the highlights from the past, let’s talk about what this means for the future. At 73-9, and having been to the finals in two consecutive years, there is not much room for improvement with regard to the Warriors. This is my opinion obviously, but this statement is almost literal if you think about it. Best player in the league, best regular season EVER, and one game away from two consecutive titles. Of course, they would have liked to have won that second title, but other than that, they have been pretty damn good.
(Warriors new core: Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, Steph Curry, KD, Klay Thompson)
So what does adding KD to this mix do? I’m a firm believer in the phrase “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” I think it’s safe to say that the Warriors were not “broke.” One of the quintessential mistakes made in the NBA is getting greedy (and slightly paranoid) and deviating from a strategy that has gotten to where you are. The Warriors had 3 All-stars and their top three scorers averaged 30, 22, and 14 respectively this year. As you can see, Klay Thompson (22.1ppg) and Draymond Green (14ppg) had to be okay with scoring significantly less than the leading scorer Curry (30.1ppg). Over his career KD has never scored less than 25 points per game except in his Rookie season where he scored 20.3. KD is also not too far removed from his MVP season in 2013-2014. Something has got to give here. These guys are fierce competitors and aren’t simply going to move out of the way for Durant to come in and average 25, but KD will not stand back and be the 3rd or 4th top scorer on the team either. They will have a few extra shots free up because of the Harrison Barnes departure, but will it be enough? Thompson has already been clear that he won’t be giving up his shots, Curry is only good when he’s taking a ton of shots, and Draymond was already on a short leash for his shot selection as it is. I’m interested to see how the scoring plays out. Additionally, the Warriors had to give up a substantial amount of bench talent to make room for KD. They are now relying on washed up, underachieving big men to fill the roles of Bogut, Ezeli, Barnes, and Mo Speights who all filled niche roles for this system. On top of some offcourt issues with Draymond, I’m wondering whether or not the Warriors have what it takes mentally to handle these distractions and transitions. I’m not saying KD will ruin the team or that the Warriors won’t be the best in the West again. What I am saying is that I’m not sure it was worth the risk. I know that I am in the minority here, but I hold the belief that both player and organization could regret this move at some point. God forbid they lose Curry to free agency if this doesn’t pan out. That being said their preseason rout of the LA Clippers was quite impressive, let's see if it continues.
With all this talk about MVPs, I’m curious, who is the frontrunner for this year? As far as I’m concerned, Durant and Curry have taken themselves out of the race by compromising and teaming up. I would almost be more inclined to bet on a breakout year from Klay than either of those two. So who does that leave us with? LeBron is the obvious answer here, but it’s become clear that as much as he doesn’t want to be written off in the conversation, he’s not aiming for this achievement quite so much anymore. He wants rings. Therefore, I think he will stay right where he has been. Not written out of the conversation, but not the winner either. I think we have a few that jump to the top of the list here. Having the team to himself and a little more motivation over the betrayal he experienced at the hands of Durant, I think we can expect to see Russell Westbrook make a strong push to make this his year. It’s been a long time coming. But I think this will depend a lot on how the Thunder actually perform as a team. Russell has shown his ability to lead this team, and I believe he has earned the confidence of his team as he has worked hard to improve his facilitation skills as a point guard. He was incredible last year, and we also have to look back to his 2014-2015 season when he held the scoring load for most of the season with KD out with injury and did very well (whether or not it was good for the team was up for debate, though). Another name that quickly comes to mind is Kawhi Leonard. With the reigns having been very clearly handed over to him as the Spurs’ Big Three slowly fade in existence, Kawhi has flourished in his new role. The Spurs have made key roster changes, seemingly to give Kawhi the support he needs to keep the Spurs relevant. He plays both sides of the ball and is quietly one of the hardest workers in the league. I think his MVP prospects rest quite a bit on how well the Spurs do this year and whether or not he can handle the “all-eyes-on-Kawhi” scouting reports that will definitely be out there this year. Two candidates that are less likely than the first two, but quite possibly could earn the award, are two of my favorite players in the league: Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard. With regard to Kyrie, I think we saw the preliminary steps of him taking over some of the statistical/play-by-play leadership roles for the Cavaliers during this year’s playoffs. He took and made big shots, and competed with LeBron, Steph, and others as the most prolific scorer in the playoffs. LeBron still is and will continue to be the team’s emotional leader and strategist but as far as statistical output goes, I can see him pulling back a bit and allowing Kyrie to shine. This might even be in the team's best interest. LeBron has nothing else to prove individually as a player. Now all he needs is to earn as many rings as possible before he retires. I think allowing Kyrie to take over will allow LeBron to preserve his energy and maintain his health, while giving him an as good or better chance at a title. With Lillard, it will all depend how good his team is. And at this point, I’m not sure. The Blazers don’t have a lot of star power after Lillard and McCollum, but somehow they have managed to stay more than relevant. If another player or two can step up and take some pressure off of Lillard and allow him to get some one-on-one matchups, he could be dangerous. He has always played with a chip on his shoulder, and I can just about guarantee you that he is entering this year with MVP goals. Finally, a few dark horse picks that I don’t think are outside the realm of possibility: -Anthony Davis has a huge comeback year and wins. -Jimmy Butler meshes extremely well with his new teammates and takes home the trophy. -Isaiah Thomas thrives next to a solid big man, leads Boston to the top of the East, and earns the MVP. Let’s be honest it will probably be none of these, but the possibility is what makes the NBA great!
Arguably the next biggest headline from the offseason is the Knicks’ next attempt at forming a “superteam”. The most recent rendition of this attempt includes Carmelo Anthony returning as the team’s leader, Kristaps Porzingis continuing to blossom into an NBA anomaly, and their new acquirees Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, and Courtney Lee. Rose and Noah come looking to redeem their names as they bring extreme controversy and baggage from Chicago, while Lee looks to enter into a large market where he can hold on to relevance. These five, presumed starters all have a history; and these histories are largely negative. I will start with the least controversial and move toward the most. The least controversial is probably Courtney Lee. He has stayed out of the headlines and has quietly made a nice career for himself. That being said he has chronically found himself on teams that are just outside of being REALLY good. Teams that are making the playoffs, but not making it to the top of their conference. Additionally, he has always been a solid piece to these teams, but it’s not often that we’ve seen him given much credit for the success of these teams. I think he’s ready to play a significant role on a significant team. We’ll see if it happens. Next up is Kristaps Porzingis; there was a huge outcry over his selection by the Knicks as the 4th overall pick in the 2015 draft. There was a pretty clear understanding that after the first three picks of this draft (Karl Anthony-Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Jahlil Okafor) the best strategy for most teams would be to take the next best talent, polished or unpolished. This is what Phil Jackson and company did to the chagrin of many. And yet months, maybe even just weeks into his residence in New York, Porzingis began to develop loyalty and a strong fan base. During his 2015-2016 season, he raised eyebrows on multiple occasion based on big plays or big stats. That being said, it’s not easy to be booed on draft day, nor is it easy to bounce back from that and place second in Rookie of the Year voting. I think he’s got something to prove, and this could be a good core of guys to help him do so. Moving on to Joakim Noah. For some time, we thought that Joakim Noah was the only thing lending hope in Chicago. He continually showed passion and loyalty to the Bulls organization. He stood in solidarity with Tom Thibodeau and Derrick Rose through multiple controversies. He played his heart out in the playoffs when the Bulls, in all reality, didn’t belong there without Rose. At one point, I would have considered him one of the most impressive big men in the league because of his passing abilities and defensive prowess. Boy, did that change quickly. A coaching change, and all of a sudden Noah no longer fit the Bulls system. Fred Hoiberg seemingly had no use for him, and that was quite clear as he was buried on the bench for most of Hoiberg’s tenure. Now it’s up to Noah to reestablish himself, and perhaps step up to be the emotional leader for this group of ‘forgettables.’ Captain America (Melo) established himself in history as he broke many records this year during his participation in the Rio Olympics for Team USA. Unfortunately, his critics will overlook his international success and point to his NBA career. Unable to win in Denver. Involved in a Brawl in Denver. Ironically, traded to New York. Unable to coexist and succeed with his “Big Three”. Outlasts multiple coaches in New York. Called a selfish ball hog when he wins his scoring title in 2012-2013 season. Humiliated for not making the playoffs with the Knicks on multiple occasions and holding heinous records. Finally, present day, told he can never be a great because he has never, and will never win a championship. Melo is obviously the key to all of this. It will be interesting to see if he can ride his summer momentum and put together another stellar season to lead this team to some success this year. I truly like Melo, especially in light of his recent attention to social activism. I think given the right attitude and surrounding circumstances, this could be a special year for him. And an opportunity to silence the critics. Finally, on to the most controversial of them all: Derrick Rose. Rose entered the league under controversy as it became clear that he had dishonestly gone through testing in order to gain admission to his alma mater, the University of Memphis. After this controversy was essentially swept under the rug by the NBA and Rose, he became a hometown hero and a fan favorite as he became an all-star in his second year and the league MVP in his third year. Although he had some trouble beating LeBron, he seemingly could do no wrong. And then the injury happened. And then it happened again. And again. And again. After Rose’s initial injury, he had a hell of a time getting his body to respond to full-speed, full-contact play again. Unfortunately, during this time the Derrick Rose story went from a story of redemption to old news. Upon returning to play, there was a new sheriff in town in Chicago, and rumors circulated whether or not Rose fit in with Jimmy Butler and company. Some suggested that he try the D-League, others screamed for a trade, and yet Rose still showed glimpses here and there of his old self. Well eventually, the critics got what they wanted. Chicago bit the bullet and brought an end to the Derrick Rose era and traded him to the New York Knicks. After which, Rose commented, “I don’t know why I was traded, but I would like to tell them (the Bulls) thank you. For real.” Clearly there is no love lost there. To make matters worse—and I mean way worse— Rose now finds himself in the midst of rape allegations that have been ongoing for the last few months. And it is bad (details here). To me, the result of this case, may singlehandedly make or break this team. Melo may be the cornerstone to this group, but if Rose goes down due to this issue, they have no shot. I’m hoping that stuff gets turned around for the guy. I mean he’s only 27! He should still have plenty of basketball to play. But he can’t afford to be in the midst of this sort of controversy if he wants to turn things around. And in the case that he is found guilty, I believe that will understandably be an unrecoverable hit to his career.
(New look Knicks: Melo, Joakim Noah, Kristaps Porzingis, Courtney Lee, D Rose, Brandon Jennings) In summary, all of these guys have something to prove. They all have a chip on their shoulder, and they are all quite talented. All of these things may serve to make this unusual combination work surprisingly well. One thing that also must be mentioned is the fact that the Knicks also slid Brandon Jennings onto this roster last minute. If he’s got anything left in the tank, he will be an above average backup point guard for them. He also fits the mold of guys who have something to prove. He had a stellar start to his career, but has been looked over since that point. With all of this being said, I will not be surprised if this team crashes and burns. We’ve seen it happen plenty of times before. But for some strange reason, I think that the Eastern Conference should be a little nervous (JVG thinks so too).
I think that the 2016-2017 season could be a particularly fun year to pay attention to the young bloods in the league. As I think of the highlights from both the Rookie and Sophomore classes, I think they could do some major damage in the league this year. It would be wise to keep an eye on them. My rookies to watch for: I think that Ben Simmons will likely end up the rookie of the year. OH WAIT. HE’S INJURED (Insert eye roll). His team is bad, but improving, therefore he would have had an opportunity to make some noise for them. I know that he has received a fair amount of criticism for his college tenure, but most pros who have seen him play are impressed, and I tend to take their opinion highest of anyone’s. But alas, it wasn’t meant to be. Brandon Ingram is the best talent in this draft, in my opinion. Whether or not he ever realizes this talent will largely depend on the Lakers’ organization. But if he does, he could be scary good; closest thing to KD that we’ve seen. I appreciated watching Dragan Bender play this summer. The international players are always a wild card, but after watching him a bit. I think he was much less of a risk than say Kristaps Porzingis or Mario Hezonja. He has a solid body and solid skillset, which at the very least will be an asset to the Suns. If they’re lucky though, he becomes the quintessential NBA stretch 4. He also hails from Croatia who, as a country, have proven to be a factor in international basketball. Another international player that I am intrigued by is Juan Hernangómez. He had himself a pretty good summer league. He’s liable to fade to nothingness if the Nuggets can’t become relevant in the West again. But If they can put some pieces together, I can see him being a very solid role player in that scenario. Guys, two years later, we may actually have a chance to see Joel Embiid make his NBA debut! Although the Sixers may have lost one stud, I think they are finally gaining another. It’s hard for me to make any predictions about this one because I literally have no idea what he’s been doing basketball-wise for the last two years. But I do know a few things: There was A LOT of hype surrounding him out of college, what I have seen of his workouts have been impressive, and he’s hilarious on Twitter. I’m halfway joking on the last one, but also halfway not joking. He has a good personality and has managed to stay light-hearted through his adversity which I think is a testament to the way that he will be able to manage the ups and downs of an NBA season, and career. Finally, my dark horse rookie to look out for is Malachi Richardson. He thrived in the NCAA tournament when Syracuse was overlooked. He's got the length, the athleticism, and the scoring ability to help out the Hornets early on. Maybe he’ll develop this year, maybe not. But either way, I’m putting my bid in on this guy early because I think he will end up being a tough competitor in the league. This is one of the harder years in a long time to try to predict RoY. We’ll see. Now on to the sophomores. What a weird class this has been. Between legal controversy (Jahlil Okafor) and social controversy (D’angelo Russell) the class has made headlines for all of the wrong reasons. But there were definitely some positive highlights, and I still have hope for the class: Karl Anthony-Towns has established himself as easily the best player in this class, and a clear centerpiece for the Timberwolves. I think that KAT has all of the pieces to land himself in stardom. He doesn’t really have a weak point in his game. He’s a physical specimen. But most importantly in my opinion is his mentality and personality. He’s handled the fame of the NBA quite well, competed hard, stayed humble, and actively sought out learning opportunities. I’m hoping that Thibodeau can put him in a position to be successful offensively, as well as defensively, because he can be dominant on both sides of the ball. I mean the guy went 14 straight games with a double-double last season, and 51 on the year. Stay tuned. Look out for the shooting guard out of Grand Rapids, Michigan. The youngest player in the 2015 draft, Devin Booker, is pretty clearly the second most impressive player from this class to this point. He’s put up certain statistics that only LeBron and Durant have been able to do in the history of the game. It took him some time to develop his rhythm and recover from some minor injuries, but once he was healthy and consistently on the court, he was very impressive. It’s not just because he’s from my hometown (and played for the same travel team I did, same time I did), many vets echo this praise. He just recently scored 34 points in 30 minutes in a Suns preseason game. The Suns should be very excited. Booker is another player that I consider to have the right mindset and demeanor to handle this new lifestyle (He's a lot of fun too). He has a great upside.
(Drake wearing a Devin Booker jersey at one of his Summer Sixteen concerts)
As a die-hard Pistons fan, I’ve been at the edge of my seat waiting for the moment that Stanley Johnson breaks out of his shell. He was one of the most impressive rookies during the Summer League the year they were drafted, but struggled to find consistency in the regular season. This is understandable as Stanley continues to cope with the loss of his mother amidst the excitement of beginning an NBA career. I think Pistons fans should be excited though. Johnson has a great motor, and showed some grit and toughness last postseason as he stood up to LeBron during the Pistons’ valiant attempt to win a game in their 8 vs 1 matchup. Stay tuned.
Many were surprised when D’Angelo Russell was taken by the LA Lakers as the number 2 overall pick in 2015. He was not. Russell’s confidence has been unwavering, and throughout controversy and criticism, he has done well to keep his composure. He had some tough interaction with teammates as he seemingly lost their trust due to some offcourt antics. But in the aftermath, Russell put together a quality end of the season, and most of what I have seen in this offseason and preseason has been quite encouraging. The young man has unwavering confidence in himself, and although that can hurt in some circumstances, I think it will bode well for his survival in this league. I have just a few more names to mention. Porzingis is easily one of the best players in this draft class, and has impressed thus far. His continued success will be based around the success of his team and what kind of role he has to play for them. I think he could end up being one of the best international players we’ve see in a while, but his future is still very much uncertain. Jahlil Okafor is one that I feel some type of way about. I was a huge supporter of his coming out of college, but he didn’t seem to respond well to being drafted by the 76ers, nor to the overall transition to being a pro. I’d like to think that he will turn things around, because it would be a shame to waste such a talent. It’s not that he has played poorly, but he obviously wasn’t as good as KAT or Porzingis, or arguably even Russell or Booker. I hope he can put the Sixers woes to the side, and just focus on improving his game.
I’m not going to go into major details here, but I am going to offer a few thoughts on the change of power in the league.
Young teams to watch out for-
Pistons: This team is gritty; like the city they represent. They hang their hat on toughness and competitiveness. The problem is that the organization hasn’t had the talent nor the front office leadership to get there for a while, but now with a core of Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson, surrounded by a great supporting cast, they could be dangerous. They fought their asses off against the Cavs in the playoffs and I think offered a great deal of hope to their fanbase by not only making the playoffs, but competing hard. Stan Van Gundy is a basketball juggernaut and is a perfect fit for this team. Get ready to see more DETROIT BASKETBALL.
Timberwolves: Among one of the youngest teams in the league, similar to the Pistons. They have done well in the draft in recent years and their picks have panned out pretty well for the most part. They now have Karl Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Kris Dunn, Zach Lavine, Adriene Payne, Gorgui Deng, and Shabazz Muhammad learning under the leadership of Tom Thibodeau another coach and front office mastermind held in very high esteem. This is some pretty incredible young talent. Their roster doesn’t end here either. They have a few other pieces that will be key in leadership and consistency as these players come into their own. I was really rooting for them to pick up Jimmy Butler in the offseason, but alas it wasn’t meant to be. I’m excited to see this team develop. They showed some fight and competitiveness late last season when they beat the Warrior in a game that didn’t matter for the T-Wolves, but had some implications for the Warriors. Stay tuned for this team.
Old teams on their way out-
Mavericks: As the momentum shifts across the league, unfortunately I see the Dallas Mavericks heading in the wrong direction. Every year that they fail to make a big offseason move, their players get older and they lose little pieces of their core that end up hurting their ability to compete. I think this might be a year that we see the demise of Mark Cuban, Rick Carlisle, and (sigh) Dirk Nowitzki.
Heat: I’m not sure what Pat Riley is doing. Perhaps he is trying to quietly tank and rebuild. That would make the most sense. But essentially, after losing LeBron, he seems to have given up on this team. He basically allowed Wade to walk out the front door, and he has shown no support for Chris Bosh, their highest paid player, who has vocally expressed a desire to recover and compete for the Heat again. Without these two players, along with a few smaller losses suffered in the offseason, I fear it’s time for the Heat to head back to the drawing board. But I will say, this will be a great test for Erik Spoelstra. He’s a guy I have always liked, and I hope he can turn it around.
Final paragraph before I give my playoff predictions. Before closing, it’s probably important to note a few other really interesting things. Dwayne Wade will not be in a Heat uniform for the first season of his career. Instead, he joins forces with Rajon Rondo and Jimmy Butler in Wade’s hometown of Chicago. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I don’t have too high of hopes, but who knows. Additionally, the Thunder have not only lost Kevin Durant, but also Serge Ibaka. As a surrogate replacement they brought in Victor Oladipo. Oladipo is an electric player who always plays with a chip on his shoulder. I’m not sure if he’s enough to make the Thunder a force to be reckoned with, but it’s already very clear that he and Russ are going to make a super fun backcourt to follow, both on and off the court. They could be tough. This season will be hard for sports fans across the globe. We say goodbye to a list of Hall of Famers who have been around in the league for as long as people my age can remember. Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and Kevin Garnett will not be returning to the league this season as each has decided to retire. Together, they combined for 48 all-star appearances, 11 rings, 4 MVP’s and endless memories. We thank you all (moment of silence). Finally, it should be noted that the NBA will continue to build on their already disgusting profit by allowing ads to be displayed on jerseys (barf). This has been a long time coming, but I always hoped it wouldn’t happen. Now here’s to hoping it doesn’t stick.
Postseason Predictions:
East
Cavaliers
Pacers
Raptors
Celtics
Pistons
Knicks
Hornets
Bucks
West
Warriors
Spurs
Thunder
TrailBlazers
Clippers
Timberwolves
Rockets
Grizzlies
*Just out: Bulls, Wizards, Lakers, Jazz
**Notable omissions: Heat, Hawks, Mavericks
Soooo… who is better, the East or the West?