Grammy Preview: Album of the Year Contestants
Though the nominees for the 2019 Grammy Awards will not be unveiled until 2 months from today, the year of eligibility ended on Sunday, meaning everything released from October 2017 to the end of September is eligible to be nominated in the next ceremony, and nothing after will be recognized until the 2019 ceremony. What this means is that, yes, the time has come: we are officially in the year of eligibility in which Taylor Swift wins a disgusting amount of Grammys again. What this also means is that on top of the number of noteworthy releases that have come in 2018, there are some big names that dropped music last Fall/Winter who are also in the mix for the sweepstakes. It will undoubtedly be a crowded field for every category, but here is an overlook at the contenders for what is largely considered the top Grammy of them all, the Grammy's 'Best Picture', if you will: Album Of The Year.
Surefire Candidates
Everything Is Love // The Carters
Considering the two megastars (Beyoncé and Jay-Z, for the pop culture neophytes) involved in its making, Everything Is Love felt like a quiet release. The shock of surprise album drops has somewhat worn off since Queen B popularized it back in 2013, and an exclusive Tidal release isn't going to see the mainstream audience that virtually any other platform would. Still, even if the couple's first joint album wasn't quite the critical success of either party's most recent solo album, it is one of the better-reviewed records of 2018, and do we really think the Grammys are going to say no to both Bey AND Jay?
Reputation // Taylor Swift
Reputation was a 2017 release, but it just barely missed the cutoff for Grammy eligibility, which means this is the year Grammy darling Tay-Tay can expect to see herself among the key names called. Despite being a relatively drastic shift in style and tone for the pop star, her latest album still managed to rule much of last year and this one and secure fairly decent reviews. The Grammy's exclusion of Ed Sheeran's album last year might indicate that simply being the undisputed Pop champion no longer guarantees you a spot among the nominees, but Swift already has the reputation (ha!) with Grammy voters that someone like Sheeran liked.
Contenders
Beerbongs and Bentleys // Post Malone
Post Malone has rocketed out of nowhere to become one of the most-played artists on the radio, and one of the biggest stars of the year. Beerbongs and Bentleys was released among his rapid rise to the top, and hits like "Rockstar" and "Psycho" are everywhere. The album got mostly mixed-to-negative reviews, which hurts its chances, but the Grammys don't shy away from opportunities to stay hip. Plus, as the ones who once awarded Macklemore Best Rap Album and Best New Artist over Kendrick Lamar, they've shown this kind of "rap, but nicer!" might be right up their alley.
Black Panther: The Album // Kendrick Lamar and Various Artists
For the fourth straight year, Kendrick has dropped an album, though the man himself would tell you this is not truly his album as much as it is a widespread collaboration. Still, the defending Grammy Rap champion was the brain behind this star-studded soundtrack. It's been a long time since a movie soundtrack was nominated for Album of the Year, but it used to happen relatively frequently, and this is good (and was popular) enough as a standalone album that it's not out of the question.
Dirty Computer// Janelle Monae
Janelle Monae, long the beloved alternative music favorite, has finally found major mainstream success in the last few years, both as an actress and a musician. Her 2018 release, featuring guest appearances from Brian Wilson, Pharrell, and Zoe Kravitz, has been one of the critical smashes of the year. Monae is no longer unknown enough to assume the Grammys will sleep on her, and this feels like a very '2018' album.
Egypt Station // Paul McCartney
50 years ago, The Beatles won their first ever Album of the Year Grammy, for Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band. Two years prior, they had been nominated for the first time. Now, in 2018, their most famous member has a real shot at being nominated for the premier award once more. Egypt Station has been met with more positive reviews than most of McCartney's modern releases, and the legend's return to a more rock-centric vibe than the traditional pop schmaltz might help fill the ever-present Rock void at the Grammys.
From A Room: Vol. 2 // Chris Stapleton
Chris Stapleton is to Country as Kendrick Lamar is to Rap, as far as awards and recognition go. Stapleton has quickly cemented himself as THE artist in Country music today, and won Best Country Album last year for the prequel to this release. Vol. 2 received about as positive critical reception as Vol. 1 did, and performed even better commercially.
Golden Hour // Kacey Musgraves
Stapleton's campaign, though, may be hampered by the fact that his album isn't even the most renowned of the year in his own genre. That honor belongs to Kacey Musgraves, who previously won Grammys for Best Country Album and Best Country Song as a young'un. Golden Hour is the most widely critically acclaimed release of 2018, and deservedly so. It's a typically thoughtful, engaging work of art. Original both lyrically and musically (Musgraves weaves tinges of Pop, Rock, even Disco into traditional Country), Golden Hour might just be a dark horse candidate to win the whole thing.
Invasion Of Privacy // Cardi B
If you've paid a lick of attention to pop culture in the last year and a half, you know Cardi B. The Bronx rapper staked her claim as one of the biggest artists and most omnipresent celebrities today. Invasion Of Privacy includes the biggest Summer hit of both 2017 ("Bodak Yellow") and 2018 ("I Like It"), and is well-reviewed, to boot. All of this makes me think her album is a shoo-in, but given her recent legal troubles and the Grammys' discomfort with Rap, I can't 100% guarantee we'll see Cardi's name called.
Scorpion // Drake
Drake is arguably the biggest name in hip-hop today (even Kanye has admitted as such), and has expertly bridged the pop-rap audiences to become radio king. He's no stranger to Grammys, winning Best Rap Album multiple times, and was nominated for this very award just two years ago. Scorpion debuted to fairly mixed reviews, but the Grammys have shown they often favor bigger over better, particularly when it comes to Rap.
Sweetener // Ariana Grande
I've discussed numerous names that have "ruled 2018" already, but right up with Cardi B, Drake, and Post Malone is Ariana Grande. The pop starlet has had an absolute whirlwind of a year, in both a very good and very tragic sense. The highs, though, include her cemented stay in the public conscience thanks to her rapidly-moving, PDA-heavy relationship to SNL star Pete Davidson, as well as her music, which has been played on the airwaves nonstop these last few months. Grande does not have much of a Grammy track record, but Sweetener is easily her most acclaimed album thus far (and the most acclaimed mainstream Pop release of the year), and Ari has cultivated quite the fanbase.
The Thrill Of It All // Sam Smith
You may have forgotten about this one, as it was released nearly a year ago, and was quickly swallowed up by other major pop releases. It's true, Thrill Of It All did not nearly have the staying power his first album did, but it was still decently received, and it's important to remember the last time Smith was in the Grammy conversation, he cleaned up, winning 5 awards on the night, including Best New Artist and Song of the Year. Given the Grammys' affinity for artists like himself and Adele, this album is a real contender here.
Longshots
ASTROWORLD // Travis Scott
Travis Scott has been well-known in Rap circles for some time now, but ASTROWORLD was undoubtedly his coming-out party. The summer release was one of Rap's biggest success stories this year, securing the 2nd-biggest first week of 2018 (trailing only Drake), and garnering rave reviews from critics. Don't be stunned to see this among the nominees, but I still think Travis Scott is just a little too unknown to voters to feel confident about his chances.
Come Tomorrow // Dave Matthews Band
Dave Matthews Band is still a thing, in case you were wondering! The long tenured indie-rockers' latest release came over the Summer, and true to form, saw little daylight on mainstream radio, but still killed in sales, earning the biggest debut week for a Rock release in over 4 years. The somewhat mixed reviews might do them in, as might deference to the younger, hipper pop names. But, especially as they've been nominated for the top award before, it's not out of the question.
High As Hope // Florence + The Machine
People have been waiting for Florence + The Machine to find Grammy success for some time, as many projected their last two albums to be among the Album of the Year nominees, to no avail. It's unlikely this would be her breakthrough, as it was neither Florence's biggest nor her best. But, the group might have accrued just enough critical and commercial recognition at this point to finally reach the pedestal.
Kamikaze // Eminem
Slim Shady technically has two albums that could be in the running, thanks to last Winter's Revival, and this surprise release one month ago. If either are going to be named among the nominees, though, it will be Kamikaze, which is the more timely album, and was a notable improvement from Revival, as Em himself would admit. Mixed critical reception and the presence of uber-stars like Drake and Cardi in the Rap category already mean it's unlikely to see this among the nominees, but it's still Eminem, who the Grammys have awarded countless times.
Masseduction // St. Vincent
Much of my commentary on Florence + The Machine above could also apply to St. Vincent. Many considered it a massive snub that her eponymous album was not nominated for top honors in 2014-15, but she is still underground enough that it's hard to see her getting recognized this time around, particularly when Masseduction was a Fall 2017 release. Still, it was one of the best-reviewed of last year, and maybe the Grammys are tuned in to her diverse, extremely devoted fanbase.
Prediction Time
Before I get into my predictions, it's important to point out a few factors that will affect how the nominees will look. The most important one is that the Grammys voted to follow the extend the field for all the major general awards to 8 nominees, from the usual 5. This (presumably) allows them to include and accomodate a wider variety of genres, though that was also the thought behind the Oscars expanding their Best Picture field, and that change has mostly seen a higher number of the same kind of nominees.
Another thing I think might play a factor is the controversy surrounding women at last year's ceremony. The 2018 Grammys were criticized for featuring overwhelmingly male nominees and performers, and president Neil Portnow decided to respond by declaring that women "need to step up," which as you might expect, only further infuriated the masses. I expect the Grammys will be eager to work themselves back into good graces by emphasizing female nominees, and as you've seen above, there are plenty of good options to choose from.
The final factor at play here, is that there's no rhyme or reason to who will be nominated for this award. Sometimes the nominees are representatives of a variety of genres, other times they've been Pop or Hip-Hop-heavy. Sometimes there's been one or two lesser-known names in the mix, other times it's been all megastars. Usually it's a safe bet the biggest pop smash will be a nominee, but last year's exclusion of Ed Sheeran bucked that norm. So in conclusion...who knows?
My hunch, though, is that part of the thinking behind the expansion to 8 nominees is so the Grammys can make sure all the major genres have a representative. That leads me to think the following would be 'automatic bids,' if you will:
Reputation, for Pop
Everything Is Love, for Rap/Hip-Hop
Golden Hour, for Country
Egypt Station, for Rock
Dirty Computer, for an Alternative choice
Regardless of whether they do this automatic bid school of thought or not, I feel pretty good that at least 3 of those will be nominated. After those 5, that leaves 3 more spots available. I mentioned that this very well could be the "Year of the Woman" at the Grammys, and that leads me to believe 2 of those other spots will go to 2 of the 2018 queens, Ariana and Cardi. As for that last spot? When in doubt, expect Drake to get the nod. So, my final prediction is:
Dirty Computer, Janelle Monae
Egypt Station, Paul McCartney
Everything Is Love, The Carters
Golden Hour, Kacey Musgraves
Invasion Of Privacy, Cardi B
Reputation, Taylor Swift
Scorpion, Drake
Sweetener, Ariana Grande
Do leave your thoughts and/or predictions in the comments!