Premier League Predictions, Weeks 18 & 19
Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans, and Happy Holidays! As we near Christmas, all the signs of the holiday season are there, and none more noticeable than the Premier League fixture pileup. In that vein, we're covering not only this weekend's matches, but the ones on Boxing Day, because lord knows I will not be thinking about my predictions on Christmas Day.
Last week out started poorly, but got better as it progressed. My Bournemouth/Luton prediction was moot, as the match was suspended and unfinished, but I whiffed on my Manchester City and Brentford predictions. On Sunday, though, my Arsenal win prediction panned out, as did my bold take that Liverpool and Man United would draw, and given how counter to the norm that prediction was, I'm giving myself bonus credit. My 2.5/4 performance dropped me to a 39.5/59 mark on the year.
Now, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time trending downwards. Here are your 8 for Weeks 18 & 19!
Aston Villa vs. Sheffield United
Aston Villa continues to pass the tests put in front of them. Nobody would mistake Brentford for an opponent of the same quality as Manchester City and Arsenal, who Villa had dispatched of in the matches preceding, but as a tricky opponent with home-field advantage, the Bees represented a classic trap game scenario. Instead, Unai Emery's men pulled out a 2-1 win in London, and moved into a tie for 2nd place in the league. Maybe their time in dreamland will come to an end, but it's not a given, and regardless, expect the Lions to have enough to dispatch of lowly Sheffield tomorrow.
The Pick: Aston Villa, 2-0
Luton Town vs. Newcastle United
Newcastle bounced back from their mini-slump last weekend and kept Top 4 hopes alive with a dominant win over Fulham. Luton Town, on the other hand, were hoping to build on positive performances against the league's best to get actual points, but their quest was tragically waylaid with the frightening on-field collapse of captain Tom Lockyer which caused the match to be suspended. Lockyer thankfully was rushed to the hospital in time and is in good health, but now Luton embarks on the difficult task of returning to action with the well-being of their leader in the back of their minds. This could be a memorable day for the Hatters or one that really spins out of control, but I'm inclined to believe Lockyer's spirit and a raucous home crowd will inspire the underdogs to a crucial point from this match.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Everton
After a month of the wheels completely falling off, Tottenham have quietly started to regain their form and might have stabilized, with a thrilling draw at City and back-to-back wins coming in the last month. On paper, they will be the heavy favorite to win again this weekend, but in reality, it likely won't be that straightforward. Ever since the Premier League's unexpected points deduction punishment, Everton have played with their hair on fire: 4 consecutive wins with 0 goals conceded have lifted the Toffees firmly out of the relegation zone, and they'll travel to North London on a roll and on a mission. I think the Spurs have righted the ship enough to the point where I'd be surprised if they stumble at home, but Everton's form is not to take lightly. I don't think I'll predict a loss for Sean Dyche's men until there's good reason to do so.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Liverpool vs. Arsenal
Saturday evening (British time) will hold what could be the match of the season thus far, right as we approach the midway point, as league leaders Arsenal go to Anfield to take on 2nd-place Liverpool, who sit just one point behind them. The Reds' failure to score vs. rivals Manchester United on Sunday ended an 8-month goalscoring streak, and coupled with Arsenal's impressive win over Brighton, allowed the Gunners to snatch 1st place back from them. You'd imagine this would be the case for such a big match anyhow, but especially with Jurgen Klopp's public request for the fans to show up and be loud, Anfield should be absolutely rocking on Saturday, and as such, I really can't see Liverpool losing this one in front of their home fans. That said, the same felt true for this past Sunday and it evidently didn't faze Man United all that much, and I can't shake the feeling that Arsenal might just be the better (or at least more complete) team right now. A close, competitive win by either side wouldn't shock me, but I think a pulsating draw, in line with the two teams' epic fixtures from last season, is the most likely outcome.
The Pick: Draw, 2-2
Manchester United vs. Aston Villa
I've said for a while now that the coverage surrounding United's season has an air of making a mountain out of a molehill, and I'll admit, I feel a little vindicated in the wake of United's "stunning" draw at Liverpool. The result was a good one for the undermanned Red Devils, who still sit in 7th place and a whopping six whole points out of the Top 4. Still, this is a big week for their hopes of contending for a Top 4 finish, with a trip to West Ham on tap this weekend, followed by a visit from an Aston Villa team who could very well be league leaders by Boxing Day. If I haven't made it abundantly clear, I think Aston Villa are the real deal, and I don't think they'll go away quietly as contenders. That said, I do think their winning ways finally come to an end the day after Christmas; United have demonstrated an ability to show up when it matters most, and in front of what is likely to be a rowdy Old Trafford, I expect them to gain a massive three points.
The Pick: Man United, 1-0
Everton vs. Manchester City
It's always a bit tricky to project a match two gameweeks in advance, because the results of the next matches could affect the next slate of games. Case in point, if Everton are able to go to Tottenham and steal all 3 points, that may inspire the confidence they need to take on the regining champions and win. That said, I have to stick with my projections that a. Everton's winning streak at least will have come to an end by the time this game is played, and b. the current Top 3 will all have dropped points, leaving the door open to City to climb the league ladder with a win. I said earlier that I don't think I'll predict a loss for Sean Dyche's men until there's good reason to do so... I think a Manchester City that very well may have one or both of Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne back presents a good reason to predict the first Toffee loss in almost a month.
The Pick: Man City, 3-1
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Two of the main stories from early season have fallen back in the late Fall/early Winter months. Tottenham’s extended stay atop the league and Brighton’s positive results against good teams and standing in the Top 4 led many to marvel at the work of Ange Postecoglou and Robert De Zerbi— and for good reason! But a rough slew of results has seen both fall out of the Top 4 altogether, and now both could use a win to get back into European contention (let alone a title race). Because of how open both teams are, but also because of both’s inconsistent form, this could go either way, but right now I trust Tottenham a little bit more.
The Pick: Tottenham, 2-1
Arsenal vs. West Ham United
I don’t think it’s dramatic to say this week could be the pivotal one when it comes to Arsenal's title challenge. Despite holding the Premier League lead for most of last season, the current league leaders still face a significant amount of doubt over their credentials when compared to, say, Manchester City and Liverpool. Two wins in the next 4 days could absolutely change the perception of the Gunners, as a trip to Liverpool is shortly followed by a visit from a good West Ham side. Win both, and the North Londoners are absolutely the team to beat. That said, regardless of what happens in Saturday’s match, I expect Mikel Arteta and co. to turn around and win a tough but thrilling game back at home in the Emirates.
The Pick: Arsenal, 3-2
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