Premier League Predictions, Weeks 14-15

© Micah Veldkamp, 2024

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Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! I know a second absence from Premier League Predictions in the last three weeks was not what you expected, and the worst part is, I can't even blame an international break for this one. No, my silence over Week 13 (a massive gameweek that included Liverpool-Man City and Chelsea-Aston Villa, among others) had a little bit to do with the Thanksgiving holiday, and a lotta bit to do with water-related laptop injuries.

But we're back! And right in time, because we're headed for the full bloated holiday fixture pileup, which is why these predictions are coming to you on a Tuesday night, rather than a Friday: matches for the 14th "week" have in fact already begun today, and will continue tomorrow, before "Week 15" kicks off on Saturday.

If you can't remember anything pre-Turkey Day, I continued my slow recovery of form last time out. No, I did not see Ipswich Town's surprise draw of Manchester United coming, nor Tottenham's shocking demolition of Manchester City. But I did accurately predict Arsenal's win (albeit not to the big margin that they notched), and those of Chelsea and Liverpool (albeit by less of a margin than I predicted). My second consecutive 3/5 outing brings me up to a 28.5/55 mark on the season, keeping my head above .500.

Now, the matches for this week are already kicking off, so let's not waste any more time taking baby steps. Here are your 8 for Weeks 14 and 15!

Southampton vs. Chelsea

Chelsea's results and form both have been good enough lately that, in the midst of Manchester City's dropoff and fresh off Arsenal's, some are wondering if the Blues are sneaky title contenders should Liverpool fall off the boil. Southampton have played better than their last-place standing would suggest, and could well cause Chelsea trouble at home-- just ask Liverpool! But I think expecting anything other than a perhaps entertaining loss is asking a lot of the Saints.

The Pick: Chelsea, 4-2

Manchester City vs. Nottingham Forest

Both these teams were so recently in the Top 3 of the Premier League, but have quickly fallen off in the last month with consecutive losses, and will be desperate to get back to winning ways. Even one loss by Man City feels surreal, let alone six in a row, so who's to say that another one isn't coming? But the slump is going to end at some point, and I think a home match against a fellow struggling side is likely going to be just what the doctor ordered.

The Pick: Man City, 3-1

Newcastle United vs. Liverpool

There's no question Liverpool are on cloud nine at the moment: 16 matches unbeaten in all competitions, top of the Champions League standings, top of the Premier League by 9 points, and now, consecutive 2-0 wins in one week against Real Madrid and Manchester City, two of the best teams in the world (and two of Liverpool's chief tormentors in the Jürgen Klopp era). And yet...longtime Liverpool fans will tell you it's stretches like these that terrify them more than anything; trying to come off a crazy high in time to face two tough rivals in road games in a four-day span. The Reds are in too good a form for me to predict them to lose, but with how unpredictable Newcastle is, this feels like a match in which anything can happen, and especially with a raucous Wednesday night crowd at St. James' Park, that screams points shared to me.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Arsenal vs. Manchester United

Arsenal have returned from the international break on a mission; where they headed into the break having dropped points in 5 of their last 7 matches in all comps, they since scored three straight wins in the last week, by a total scoreline of 13-3. Their old rivals Manchester United haven't been great in the first week under new manager Ruben Amorim, but haven't lost yet, picking up wins in the Europa League last week and against Everton (comprehensively) on Sunday. I think the turnaround under Amorim will be real, if not immediate, and thus wouldn't be surprised if they give Arsenal a good game tomorrow, but also expect the Gunners are going to be a level too high for them yet.

The Pick: Arsenal, 2-0

Everton vs. Liverpool

As mentioned a second ago, Liverpool are riding high at the moment, and there are fewer teams that would be more excited to bring them crashing down to earth than Newcastle and especially their crosstown rivals Everton. The Toffees are, once again, not a very good team, but always seem to cause Liverpool trouble in this exact fixture (see: officially ending Jürgen Klopp's title hopes at the end of last season). I think the outcome of this one very well could be dictated how the two sides-- especially Liverpool --perform in the midweek, but working on the assumption that they do in fact blink at Newcastle, I don't expect the Reds to drop points twice in a row.

The Pick: Liverpool, 1-0

Fulham vs. Arsenal

 

Arsenal and their fans still very much believe their team to be in the thick of the title race, and if the relatively early date in the fixture calendar didn't already support that hope, the Gunners' current form certainly will. If they're going to make up ground on Liverpool, this season seems like the opportune time to do it, beginning with this week, in which they face two very winnable matches while the league leaders go on the road for two rivalry matches. Fulham has caused big teams plenty of trouble before, especially on their home ground, but this iteration of the Cottagers haven't proven they're "upset a title contender" level good yet this season.

The Pick: Arsenal, 3-0

Leicester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

 

The wildly vacillating form of just about every team not named Liverpool has meant the Top 4 has consistently seen one surprise name amongst its ranks this season; at the beginning, there was Brighton, then as they stumbled, along came Aston Villa, then Nottingham Forest, and now we're all the way back to the Gulls, who suddenly are just 1 point out of 2nd place. It's been an impressive start for Fabian Hürzeler, the youngest manager in Premier League history, but if his team is going to maintain this level and compete for European football next year, they will need to play much better than they did in a frustrating 1-1 draw with Southampton. Two road matches in a week will up the ante for the Gulls, and the second one comes on in a home debut for new Leicester City manager Ruud Van Nistelrooy, who earlier today led the Foxes to victory in his first match at the helm. Both teams are enough of an unknown still that I'm going to take the easy way out and predict a draw, but this feels like another one where genuinely no result would surprise me.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea

 

Chelsea have had their slips and bumps this season, but are showing a real positive trajectory as the many different pieces familiarize themselves with each other. Tottenham, on the other hand... there's truly only one team in the league whose run of matches could go as follows: 1. loss to Crystal Palace, 2. League Cup win over Manchester City, 3. 4-1 win over Aston Villa, 4. loss to Galatasaray, 5. home loss to Ipswich Town, 6. 4-0 league win at Manchester City, 7 & 8. consecutive draws vs. Roma and Fulham. Depending on which version of Spurs we get on Sunday, though, this could be a really fun match! And given Tottenham's track record in big games, especially big games at home, I wouldn't be shocked to see "Good Spurs" upset the Blues in a London Derby thriller.

The Pick: Tottenham, 3-2