Premier League Predictions, Week 5

© Micah Veldkamp, 2025

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Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! With all the excitement of the Champions League getting underway and Liverpool yet again blowing a two-goal lead only to snatch victory back in the last minute, one may have forgotten we still have Premier League action afoot this weekend. But not I!

In fact, this is the most excited I have been to welcome everyone back all year, because this time, I finally get to tell you about something good that happened for me! That's right, my brutal stretch met its merciful end: last time out, my predictions got off to a bang with a spot-on Arsenal 3-0 win. While things briefly looked shaky thanks to a stunning Brentford draw with Chelsea, wins by Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester City restored normalcy and gave me a 4.5/5 week! That was good enough to take me to 7.5/15 on the year, a perfect .500 clip for the first time.

But, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time crunching numbers in my favor. Here are your 5 for Week 5!

Liverpool vs. Everton

The first Merseyside Derby of the '25-'26 season is an early one, and I don't just mean because it's the early kickoff of the season; both sets of fans are used to this fixture taking place close to Christmastime. This matchup comes at a good time for both sides, though: reigning champions Liverpool have won 4 matches from 4, all through goals in the final 10 minutes (a Premier League record). But it's David Moyes' Everton that have been one of the surprises of this young season, gaining 7 points from their first 12, good enough for a close 6th place, and being a tough out in each match. Liverpool's constant last-minute escapes, often preceded by blowing comfortable leads, has elicited a lot of discourse about their true quality, discourse that certainly was no quieted by the Reds' late escape vs. Atlético Madrid on Wednesday in the Champions League. But to me, it's quite simple: they're a team with a slew of new players, trying to forge a new identity, and it's not clicking consistently yet, but they're simply too used to winning and (let's call it what it is) full of too much quality to not figure out ways to win. True to form, I expect Everton to confound, frustrate, and harass their rivals for 90 minutes at Anfield....and the Reds to find a way to win it late.

The Pick: Liverpool, 1-0

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Tottenham Hotspur

After a disappointing loss directly before the international break, Tottenham got back to winning ways with a statement victory at West Ham. Brighton, meanwhile, have been one of the league's big disappointments thus far, earning only 1 win from 4 thus far despite entering the year as dark horse spoiler candidates. But this feels like a match the Gulls are prone to sneak up and finally play up to their quality. Plus, Tottenham's had a great week with their blowout of West Ham and a win in their first Champions League match in 6 years, and nothing is more classic Tottenham than turning around and immediately losing to an underdog.

The Pick: Brighton, 3-2

Manchester United vs. Chelsea

For the first 10-12 years of the 21st century, this was the grand Premier League derby, a clash between the two titans of English football. Present day, it's a fight between two clubs desperate to rediscover their glory days, one with perpetual promise that never really seems to translate to realized potential, and one fully stuck in the doldrums. Manchester United had been looking a lot better this season and close to connecting the dots, but the results weren't following and any progress was undone by a dismantling in the Manchester Derby last week. Chelsea, meanwhile, have shown occasional flashes of the promise they showed this summer in the Club World Cup, but still are prone to the disappointing results like last week's draw at Brentford. The only result here that would surprise me is a comprehensive United victory, because I don't think they have it in them yet, but I do think they're close enough (and Chelsea unreliable enough) to steal a point at Old Trafford.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Bournemouth vs. Newcastle United

Bournemouth has been one of THE stories of the Premier League season. The club, already small in budget and stature, lost its best attacker and the entirety of its back line from last year's very successful campaign...and yet, find themselves in the Top 4 with their sole loss from their first 4 matches coming via a late winner at Anfield by reigning champions Liverpool. It's a testament both to Andoni Iraola and the resilience of his squad that they are proving to be as tough an out for all comers as they were last season. It's an unwelcome development for their next opponents Newcastle, who endured a summer of whiffing on their various audacious potential signings and lost star striker Alexander Isak to Liverpool, and have kicked off a highly anticipated season with a muted 5 points from 12. And yet? It feels like this is the thing of as soon as everyone kind of expects the "little guy" to win the big game, the favorites will show up. I think Eddie Howe will make enough moves to get a crucial win for Newcastle over his longtime club.

The Pick: Newcastle, 2-1

Arsenal vs. Manchester City

A month is barely gone in the season, and yet after Sunday, Arsenal will have two matches against fellow title hopefuls in the rearview. The last one, a late 0-1 loss to Liverpool, was a frustrating affair at Anfield in which they defended well but truthfully, didn't generate anything resembling a concerted effort to win the game. This time, more can be expected of Arsenal in the friendly confines of Emirates Stadium, where they blasted this Man City side by a shocking 5-0 scoreline last season. City's big week (comprehensive wins over Manchester United and Napoli) has washed out the bad taste of their previous two matches and served as notice that they well be more up for the challenge this year than last. But, while the Gunners have come up short in the last 3 title races, they've proven in that timeframe that their ceiling is higher than anyone's, and I believe that will be on full display this weekend in London.

The Pick: Arsenal, 2-0