Premier League Predictions, Week 5

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! It was a wild one in league play last weekend, but the return of the Champions League and Europa League re-injected some normalcy. But as if that weren't enough excitement, guess what? We're back to Premier League action already!

And I wish I could be back to good prediction form :( My trajectory continued downwards from my first outing, with a rough go of it last weekend; I did not remotely see Nottingham's win at Liverpool, nor Ipswich Town's draw at Brighton coming, nor were Tottenham able to get any points off Arsenal, as I predicted. Fortunately, in a cruel twist for this Liverpool fan, the two Manchester teams came through for me. Wins by Man United and Man City salvaged at least a 2/5 week for me. Still, my early season mark now comes in at a 8.5/15 clip, barely above 50% already.

Now, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking off, so let's not waste any more time moping about. Here are your 5 for Week 5!

Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

Aston Villa flirted with disaster last weekend by quickly going down 2-0 at home to last-placed Everton, before putting in 3 goals unanswered to come from behind and win. The Lions' good week continued a few days later with a 3-0 domination vs. Young Boys in their first Champions League match in 41 years. Next up for the Brummies is another relegation candidate: Gary O'Neil's Wolves have gotten off to a brutal start in the league, notching just 1 point to date. I think Wolverhampton have too much talent to languish at the bottom of the table much longer, but I don't think the turnaround is going to begin against a Villa side finding their form.

The Pick: Aston Villa, 3-1

Fulham vs. Newcastle United

Newcastle have recovered nicely from their bad week in August (a disappointing draw with Bournemouth followed by near-elimination in the League Cup), kicking off September with a big win vs. Tottenham and last week, scoring two late goals to rally past Wolves on the road. Fulham, meanwhile, have had a bit of everything so far in this young season, a sentiment perhaps best represented by their midweek elimination from the League Cup by Championship side Preston, after a record 18 rounds of penalties. One thing that can be said about the Cottagers, though, is that they've shown up for the bigger games: unbeaten in their home matches against tough Leicester and West Ham sides, and coming within minutes of an upset of Manchester United at Old Trafford in the first match of the Premier League season. Newcastle are the better side, but I don't know that I trust them enough yet to expect them to escape Craven Cottage with all 3 points.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Liverpool vs. Bournemouth

I take small comfort in knowing that I was definitely not alone in errantly thinking Liverpool would beat Nottingham Forest last week; just about everyone was stunned by Forest's 1-0 upset at Anfield! And perhaps even more shocking is that it wasn't an unfair result- Liverpool looked absolutely lethargic and uninterested in winning this match. However, the Reds displayed short-term memory and turned it around just 3 days later by cruising in their Champions League opener in Milan. The latter performance was so much more in line with their domination of Manchester United than with the listless display vs. Nottingham, which suggested the first match back from the international break may have been a one-off. Bournemouth is, in my opinion at least, better than Nottingham, and while convincing, Liverpool weren't exactly dominant in their first two league wins, so I'd be mildly surprised by a Liverpool romp tomorrow, but I do think what we saw at Anfield last weekend will be looked at as an aberration and can't see the Reds dropping two straight decisions at home.

The Pick: Liverpool, 3-1

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Nottingham Forest

These two contributed to the two most surprising scorelines last week; Nottingham's aforementioned result may have been the stunning result of the weekend, but were it not for Callum Hudson-Odoi's solitary goal in that one, the talk of the town would have been minnows Ipswich getting a point off Brighton on the latter's home turf. The Gulls had a flying start to the season, with 7 points from a very tough 9, but their goalless result against perhaps the weakest side in the league set about nervous titters. The two big surprise scorelines were enough to bring these two sides within touching distance of each other, in 6th and 7th place. Until I see evidence to the contrary (which, in fairness, could come this weekend!), I'm going to assume the Nottingham and Ipswich results last Saturday were International Break-induced exceptions, and not norms, and expect the Gulls to bounce back this week.

The Pick: Brighton, 3-1

Manchester City vs. Arsenal

We're barely a month into the league season, and yet it feels like every matchweek has held at least one blockbuster showdown. This weekend's no different, bringing maybe the most anticipated matchup of the season; 5-time defending champions Manchester City playing host to 2-time defending runners-up Arsenal. It's been a logistically brutal week for the Gunners, playing a massive rivalry match away last Sunday, then traveling to Italy for a midweek match vs. Atalanta, then flying back to England only to bus to Manchester to take on the big bad wolf of the Premier League. But Mikel Arteta will be comforted by their good result in the derby vs. Spurs, and a digestible result in the Champions League with their draw vs. the reigning Europa League winners. Besides, key cog Declan Rice will be back for this match and the midfielder's mates have shown since the start of last season that they are built to hang with City. But not only will these Blues be looking for revenge on a team they haven't beaten since April 2023, they, frankly, look more locked in to start the season than a Guardiola team has since 2017. Yeah, that season in which they broke the 100 mark. They've been bashing in goals for fun and crushing opponents' will (well, at least until their scoreless draw at home vs. Inter Milan this week); their 2-1 win vs, Brentford last weekend was just about the first time they had to sweat, and even then, it was for about 15 minutes tops. I don't think the goals will come as easily against a rigid Arsenal back line, but I do think this time City will get the win.

The Pick: Man City, 1-0