Premier League Predictions, Week 5

Welcome back! Thanks to a mostly needless international break— in the middle of a pandemic, mind you —it’s been a couple weeks since our last Premier League action, which in the era of jampacked scheduling feels like an eternity. But club soccer is back with a force, with Champions League group stages kicking off this coming week after the domestic fixtures this weekend.

And at least in England, the return comes not a moment too soon. The Premier League season paused for the break just when we were hitting peak insanity. We thought the goal-fest scorelines and Leicester waxing Manchester City were going to be as crazy as it got, but, boy were we wrong. Neither team covered themselves in glory after that affair, with Leicester City proceeding to get beat by West Ham 0-3, at home, no less, and the Mancs settling for a draw with newbies Leeds. That was just the tip of the iceberg, though; in the most-anticipated matchup of the weekend, Manchester United capitulated to former manager Jose Mourinho and Tottenham by a score of 1-5. But their sorrow was likely soon somewhat alleviated immediately after when archrivals Liverpool were felled by upstarts in Aston Villa in stunning fashion, conceding 4 first-half goals en route to 2-7 demolition. (For reference, that's the same score by which Liverpool had beaten third division side Lincoln City in the League Cup just a week earlier.)

Alas, all the objective entertainment resulted in some very personal losses for me. And I'm not just talking about my Liverpool pride; I'm talking about my remarkable 0 for 5 scorecard. That's right, for perhaps the first time in Couch history (I hope?), I had a total goose egg of a week. In addition to incorrectly predicting all the matches discussed above, I also errantly believed Brighton would take points off of Everton, who in fact won easily. So, my dismal week keeps me at en equally dismal 10.5/20 on the season.

Now, the matches are less than 12 hours away from starting, so let's not waste any more time wallowing in despair. Here are your 5 for Week 5!

Everton vs. Liverpool

It’s easy to chalk Everton’s place in the standings up to luck, or dismiss it as an early-season fluke. But they’ve positively blown the doors off their opponents this year, including in multiple matches in which I thought they would drop points. Similarly, it’s hard to wrap one’s mind around Liverpool not being as good a team as their Merseyside rivals, but ever since Project Restart, it’s been difficult to get a hold of who the real Reds are: the ones who dominated Arsenal and Chelsea at the end of last year and beginning of this one, or the ones who sleepwalked through demolitions by Manchester City and Aston Villa? They will certainly be handed a real health boost by the apparent return of Jordan Henderson, Sadio Mané, Thiago and Joel Matip. But that might be offset by the continued absence of Alisson, as well as the fact that many key players will have just returned from a jampacked international break. So, in the year in which “Expect The Unexpected” has never been more true, I’m gonna predict Klopp endures his first Merseyside Derby loss.

The Pick: Everton, 2-1

Manchester City vs. Arsenal

It’s a weird world when the matchup between these two Premier League titans is arguably one of the least significant of the weekend in terms of relevance to the table. But 2020 is nothing if not a weird world. Regardless of these teams’ places in the standings, this is sure to be cant-miss action. Two high-quality sides, a famous manager vs. his protegé, and two teams with thrilling attacks and questionable back lines. It’s no fluke that Arsenal are ahead of City in the table as is- the Gunners’ form in the calendar year has been noticeably better, particularly on the formerly catastrophic defensive side of the ball. But here they run into a City team desperate for a win, as their shock loss to Leicester was followed up by a draw with Leeds. If Man City hadn’t been starved of points of late, I would honestly like Arsenal’s chances in this one. But form and all, injures and all, I just can’t see the Citizens dropping points in 3 consecutive matches.

The Pick: Manchester City, 3-2

Tottenham Hotspur vs. West Ham

This London derby often takes on added meaning, and this one is no different, with both teams bouncing back strongly from an awful start to the season. Spurs will be riding high in the wake of their demolition of Manchester United, but they would be wise not to overlook West Ham, who is coming in off of a total 7-0 scoreline against Wolves and Leicester City. If there is to be a winner in this match, then truthfully it’s West Ham who seem to have more of an actual upward trend going, whereas Spurs’ dominance seemed to be more of a perfect storm. However, I think the spoils will be shared between the two this weekend.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Leicester City vs. Aston Villa

Who saw this being a Top 4 matchup before the season began? After their 5-2 skulldragging of Man City at the Etihad, it looked like Leicester may genuinely be a title threat. That changed after an immediate shock loss thereafter to West Ham. Instead, it’s Aston Villa that is undefeated coming in here unbeaten, in the wake of their 7-2 riot against champions Liverpool. So who wins this battle of high-flying overachievers? Well, take it from a shellshocked Red: Villa are no joke, and if Leicester aren’t at their best, they can easily be caught out. But I think the international break couldn’t have come at a better time for the Foxes, allowing them to regroup and refocus, while possibly stalling Aston Villa’s undeniable momentum.

The Pick: Leicester City, 4-2

Leeds United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

It very well may be too early to make such a grand proclamation— remember, similar predictions about Fulham and Norwich City in the past have not aged well—but so far Leeds seems to be taking up Wolverhampton’s mantle of “small club, attacking football, big results.” After barnstorming the Championship last year, many pundits thought it possible of this Leeds side, but that didn’t make it any less impressive when they pushed champions Liverpool to the brink in the season opener, got a draw off of Manchester City last time out, and notched 3 wins in between those. Wolves, conversely, are missing the halcyon days of the last two seasons, wherein they became not only a Europa League team but a genuine contender to make the Champions League. Slow starts are not new to Wolves, though; last season they were winless in their first 6 matches, and 9 of their first 11. The year before that, they got a few good results off the top, but were winless in 6 matches between October and November, and they turned out alright in both seasons! That reassurance aside, however, it’s hard to look at the present form of these two clubs and imagine anything but a Leeds victory at Elland Road.

The Pick: Leeds, 3-1