Premier League Predictions, Week 4

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! Long time no talk! If you like a lot of (largely pointless and inconsequential) international friendlies, last soccer weekend was the one for you. If you're not a sicko, you mourned our early break from Premier League action and desperately wanted it back. If you're in the latter camp, this piece is for you!

You know what else I wish were back? My hot streak of predictions. After my best season ever last year, I flew out of the gates with a 4/5 mark this season. However, last week I finally returned to earth. I underestimated the power of the underdog in Brighton and Crystal Palace, and thus failed to predict their surprise draws vs. Arsenal and Chelsea respectively. I overestimated Manchester United in predicting they would draw Liverpool, rather than lose 0-3 to them at home, which is what they did. Fortunately, last week wasn't a total loss, as I did correctly predict Manchester City and Newcastle's victories, and even nailed the 3-1 scoreline in the case of the former. My 2.5/5 week drops my season total to date to a 6.5/10 mark, below the 2/3rds line.

Now, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking off, so let's not waste any more time yearning for more golden days. Here are your 5 for Week 4!

Southampton vs. Manchester United

It's been a dreadful start for both these teams by their respective standards. Promotees Southampton have found it very difficult in their return to the Premier League, as they're without a point so far, and currently only avoiding last place because of inferior goal difference from dreadful Everton, while Man United has just 3 points from 3 games, and before the international break was embarrassed on their home field by their rivals. The difference is, United should and will be better than their standing reflects... I'm just not sure Southampton is.

The Pick: Man United, 3-1

Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest

Liverpool's flying start to the season under new manager Arne Slot has been one of the biggest storylines thus far. It's of course very early in the year, but they look to have not missed a step, winning three matches comfortably without conceding a single goal. Nuno Espirito Santo's Nottingham Forest as an opponent coming off an international break certainly represents trap game potential, but I just don't think they're good enough to trip up Liverpool at Anfield. Composed 2-0 wins were the story of the Reds' two previous matches vs. sizable underdogs, and I expect that type of match again.

The Pick: Liverpool, 2-0

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Ipswich Town

But perhaps the main story of the Premier League's opening stretch is Brighton. The Gulls are no stranger to punching above their weight, but 7 points from an opening stretch that included both Arsenal and Manchester United is special. Ipswich even being here is a huge accomplishment, but it's been a rough start for the Tractors, earning just a sole point so far with their home draw vs. Fulham last time out. I think they'll settle into the rhythm of things eventually, but it's been a brutal opening stretch, and I don't expect Brighton to make it any easier for them tomorrow.

The Pick: Brighton, 3-1

Manchester City vs. Brentford

Believe it or not, Brentford sits just outside the Top 4 currently, with 2 wins out of 3. Thomas Frank certainly knows how to get the most out of his team, but to be fair, the Bees' sole loss was when they were pretty comprehensively outplayed by a heavy favorite at home in Liverpool. Unsurprisingly, I expect this will be just about the same deal when they go to the Etihad and face the fighting Erling Haalands tomorrow.

The Pick: Man City, 3-0

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal

With the Man United-Liverpool last game weekend and the North London Derby this Sunday, it's been a heck of a start to the season for historic rivalries. This edition of the crosstown derby features two teams looking to bounce back from their last outing. It's not exactly a hot take to say Arsenal is just the better team right now, and if just a couple of the following pieces of context differed, I would pick an outright win for them, but: Tottenham need the points in this match more (with just 4 points from their first 9), will be playing at home in front of a raucous crowd, and Arsenal will be missing multiple starters due to Declan Rice's red card, and injuries to Martin Ødegaard and Mikel Merino. Given all that goes into this match, I think Spurs will get at least a point out of it.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1