Premier League Predictions, Week 4

Welcome back to your Premier League predictions! Once again, we had some midweek storylines that helped make this week feel like less of a week than it really was. League Cup action and Champions League draws were fun and all, but now it's time to get back the good stuff. And by the good stuff, I mean the Premier League.

We're just a few matches into the season, but many are already calling this the wildest, most entertaining,, and frankly, the best Premier League season in recent memory. There have been goals galore, controversies, big wins, stunning upsets, heroes and villains...basically everything you could want in a full season. Last week, my picks got burned by some of those storylines: despite accurately projecting Liverpool's win over Arsenal, and getting the Everton-Palace projection dead on, West Brom and Leicester's stunning performances against Chelsea and Manchester City, respectively, threw two of my seemingly safe picks haywire. Then, Newcastle's controversial (read: undeserved) last-minute penalty not only cost Tottenham 3 points, it cost me yet another perfect projection, dropping me from a 4-point week to 2.5/5 overall. That takes me to 10.5/15 on the season. Not the best start, but still plenty of time to right the ship!

Now, the matches are less than 12 hours away from starting, so let's not waste any more time spewing baseless optimism. Here are your 5 for Week 4!

Everton vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

In their matchup against fellow surprise Top 4 team, Everton held off Crystal Palace to maintain their perfect season. Now they host Brighton in an attempt to enter in the international break unbeaten. The Gulls have been better than their 1-2 record shows. They were desperately unlucky to not get results against Chelsea or Manchester United, despite outplaying them for much of the match, and those competitive losses were sandwiched around a 3-0 rout of Newcastle. For this reason-- and for the reason that if we're being honest, Everton's 3 wins have come against fairly unimpressive opponents --I think Brighton gets a point they so clearly deserve and end the Toffees' winning streak.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Leeds United vs. Manchester City

If you had told anyone that one of these teams would be in 13th place heading into this matchup, I think the general response would have been "Well good, I'm glad Leeds isn't in the relegation zone!" But no, we're in the wild world of 2020, where Leeds United is in a 4-way tie for 4th place, and mega-club Manchester City is in 13th place. Both teams have had real problems conceding goals, but shockingly, between the two of them, Leeds has been the one scoring more, belting in 9 goals to their opponents' 6. City was fairly unconvincing in a season-opening win against Wolves, and quite a bit more unconvincing in a 2-5 loss to Leicester (yes, you read that correctly) on Sunday. The cries of how City's demise has begun and the League already belings to Liverpool are vastly premature, however; the table is set for Leeds to score an all-time upset, but I just can't see Guardiola and City dropping two decisions in a row. Do tune in to this one, for the attacking football, at least.

The Pick: Manchester City, 5-3

Leicester City vs. West Ham

Speaking of that 5-2 win...Leicester City's early lead atop the Premier League table is only strengthening, and already whispers about a reprisal of their magical 2015-16 season are emerging. West Ham likely won't be the side to ruin their strong start, but the Foxes do need to be wary of a letdown after such a massive win. The Hammers are not quite as much of a mess as it appeared they might be after their season-opening loss to Newcastle. They followed that result with a competitive loss to Arsenal, then blew out Wolves last week, and progressed to the League Cup quarterfinals amidst all that. I like Leicester in this one, but less comfortably than you might expect.

The Pick: Leicester City, 2-1

Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

The two clubs are off to disappointing starts in the 2020-21 season, but Manchester United vs. Tottenham has been a marquee matchup for the last decade. Their quasi-rivalry has been especially entertaining to follow since Jose Mourinho arrived at Tottenham, while Ole Gunnar Solskjær, his replacement at United, is still at the wheel. Those two traded light-hearted barbs over the last week, adding a little mini fuel to the fire of what will feel like a must-win for both clubs in order to get their season onto clearer waters. Man U has certainly had the more disappointing start of the two, a comprehensive loss to Crystal Palace followed by a lucky win against Brighton. But they also have shown that it's when the lights are brightest that they show up to play, losing just one match to fellow "Big 6" clubs last season, and I also wonder if fatigue might play a role for Spurs, who will be playing their 5th match in 10 days. Nothing will surprise me in this one, but I think United pulls it out.

The Pick: Manchester United, 2-1

Aston Villa vs. Liverpool

It's becoming increasingly evident that the only squad that can beat Liverpool are Liverpool themselves (or Arsenal, in non-Premier League penalty shootouts). Despite the lack of fans in famous Anfield, a growing list of injury concerns, COVID-induced suspensions, and constant bantering about how difficult it will be for them to repeat as champions, they have passed their difficult opening stretch with flying colors, wholly overwhelming Chelsea and Arsenal in quality. That 'pushing through missing personnel' bit is crucial, as they now face Aston Villa down Thiago and Sadio Mané due to positive COVID tests. Against a side that has yet to concede a goal in two wins, and just refurbished their squad with a surprise signing of Chelsea' Ross Barkley, it will not be a walkover in the least, especially when you consider how close Villa were to upsetting Liverpool last season. That said, at this point, it feels crazy to predict any result but Liverpool winning.

The Pick: Liverpool, 2-0