Premier League Predictions, Week 38

Welcome back to our predictions, Premier League fans! We're nearly at the end now. In just a few days, we'll officially tie a bow on this season and have final answers to all the major questions: who will win the league, who will claim the Champions League qualification for next season, who is headed to the Europa League and Europa Conference League, and who will play next season in the league below. Some of those questions have already been answered, of course; Nottingham Forest's weekend upset of Arsenal officially handed a third straight title to Manchester City, while Newcastle's draw with Leicester City on Monday sealed them in the third out of four spots for next season's Champions League.

I know a lot has happened since you heard from me last, in fact, and I apologize. The last two weekends I was out of town with friends and didn't have time to fire off a predictions piece-- good thing, too, because I would have whiffed on just about all my expectations of what was going to happen... If you can remember all the way back to my Week 35 piece, my predictions for that week started strong before crashing and burning. My read that Manchester City and Liverpool would eke out wins over tough challenges from Leeds and Brentford were spot on. But boy did I whiff badly on my other three predictions: then-title challengers Arsenal scored a resounding road victory at Newcastle, rather than lose, Manchester Untied jeopardized their Top 4 odds with a loss at West Ham, and Brighton did not in fact beat relegation-threatened Everton, but rather lose at home by 4 goals. Makes sense! That 2/5 week takes my season total to 67/125. Heading into the last week of the season, I've clinched an above-.500 record at least. Now I'd really like to break 70.

But, the games are less than 24 hours away from kicking back off, so no time for making coronation weekend all about myself. Here are your 5 for Week 38!

Manchester United vs. Chelsea

Manchester United's first season under Erik ten Hag has been nothing if not eventful; though their title challenge and Europa League run both fizzled out in the last couple months with a run of bad form, they still have the chance to finish the season with two trophies and a berth in next year's Champions League, which would be nothing if not a very successful season. Much like Newcastle on Monday, United need only a point in tomorrow afternoon's makeup match OR Sunday's finale against Fulham to clinch 4th place at a minimum. Oh, and both matches will be played at home. Despite the amount of talent present on Chelsea (who have looked slightly better and more energized in the last few weeks) and Fulham, given that neither London club has anything left to play for, it's near-impossible to imagine the Red Devils don't get this wrapped up.

The Pick: Man United, 2-0

Leeds United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Unless the above prediction pans out to be wildly wrong, chances are we'll enter the final matchday with both the title race AND the Top 4 race officially wrapped up, something that hasn't been the case in 8 seasons. That leaves just about the only intrigue for the season finale at the bottom of the table, where three teams will be fighting to avoid the final two relegation spots (Southampton has already been confirmed as the last-place finishers). Minimal drama is a bummer, of course, but it could be worse; that 2014-15 season also had the relegation battle already wrapped up in addition to the title and Top 4... yikes. Anyway, 19th-place Leeds is in the most precarious position of the three clubs in the danger zone. It's not enough for them to win their match on Sunday, they also need both Leicester and Everton to drop points as well. Making matters more complicated is that of the three relegation contenders, Leeds easily have the toughest competition in Harry Kane's Tottenham. That being said, Spurs have looked a dead team walking for most of the last few months, and I think a raucous home crowd at Elland Road will push Leeds to secure the upset and get their end done, at least.

The Pick: Leeds, 1-0

Leicester City vs. West Ham United

The good news for Leicester City is that the Leeds result doesn't affect them in any way. The Peacocks can't jump them on the same point total, not unless they win by 10 goals, and the Foxes also can't catch Everton without a win. So the task for the 2016 Premier League Champions? Just win, baby, and hope for the best from Bournemouth up north. West Ham is a better team now and has been a better team than Leicester for most of the season, but David Moyes' men have already secured safety from relegation, and also have a European final to focus on. I think Leicester will finally put on the inspiring attacking performance that's been lacking all season, and put the pressure on Everton, eliminating Leeds in the process.

The Pick: Leicester, 3-1

Everton vs. Bournemouth

...but unfortunately for Leicester (and Leeds, for that matter), Everton are not only in the safest position of all, they face the easiest opponent of all. Now, while a point for Everton would be enough to officially relegate Leeds-- unless the Peacocks intend on beating Tottenham by 4 goals --it would open them up to potentially being passed up by Leicester and their superior goal difference. So the Toffees likely need a win to feel good about themselves, no different from any of their peers down near the bottom of the table. But since beating Leeds to secure safety from relegation at the end of last month, Bournemouth have appeared to be on cruise control. Who can blame them? They're in Premier League purgatory; not within reach of European football, but not in danger of Championship football. Everton, meanwhile, have it all in front of them, and despite how poor they have been in the tail-end of the season-- the Brighton aberration was just their second victory cine Valentine's Day --can and will pull through at the death.

The Pick: Everton, 2-1

Aston Villa vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

It won't command as much attention as the Top 4 race (if it's still going on) nor even the relegation battle, but there is quite a little battle brewing for 'Europe Lite.' Liverpool has clinched 5th place at worst, and thus one of the Europa League qualification spots. But the other spot could be up for grabs should Aston Villa pull the upset over Brighton on Sunday. Conversely, if Villa fail to win, they would not only miss out on the Europa League, they could potentially miss out on Europe altogether if one or both of Tottenham or Brentford wins to jump them into 7th place and the Europa Conference League place. This match is already probably the best matchup of the weekend on paper already, and the stakes (whatever you may think of them) add an interesting dimension. I think this could be a sneaky great game between the two biggest overachievers in the calendar year 2023, but I expect Brighton to come away with a point at worst, and seal their spot in the Europa League.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2