Premier League Predictions, Week 37

Welcome back to your weekly predictions, Premier League fans! I find it hard to believe, but this is second-to-last prediction piece for the Premier League season. Some clubs still have 3 matches to play, but most have only 2, and we're just 8 days away from Decision Sunday.

We're racing so quickly towards the finish line that I forgot to include some massive midweek matches in my predictions last week (know that I definitely would have predicted Manchester City and Tottenham blowing the doors off of Wolves and Arsenal. Definitely). But of the ones I did predict, I held my own. Sure, Wolves were in fact able to rally for a draw against Chelsea, and Newcastle did not even come close to holding City to a draw (though I admittedly didn't really think that would happen). However, my bold prediction of Tottenham earning a draw at Anfield was borne out exactly as I expected, and Arsenal and Liverpool took care of Leeds and Aston Villa as I predicted. Yet another 3/5 week brings my total to 73/140 on the year, which I will take at this point.

But! The matches are just 36 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time lowering our standards for success. Here are your 5 for Week 37!

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Burnley

Tottenham's rip-roaring rout in the North London Derby yesterday guaranteed this will be a high-stakes matchup to start the weekend. Spurs are still on the outside looking in at the Top 4, but now are just one point from overtaking their archrivals at the finish line. Part of the equation is out of their hands, of course, but if they start Sunday with a win, they can keep the pressure on. On the other end of the table, their opponents are currently out of the relegation zone but are one Leeds point away from being back in danger. Both teams desperately need a win in the penultimate match, and when motivation is a wash, I have to go with the better team at home. I will say, though, Spurs' short turnaround time makes me a little nervous.

The Pick: Tottenham, 2-0

West Ham United vs. Manchester City

Manchester City is two wins away from securing yet another Premier League title, but given the massive goal differential advantage they've racked up over Liverpool in the last week or two, they're really just one win away from yet another Premier League title. Will that come this weekend? Based on recent form, I don't see how the answer could be No. It's not just that the Cityzens have won their last five, they've won them by a total of 22-1. Twenty-two. To One. West Ham have had a solid season, and will be eager to secure their Europa League positioning for next year after coming up just short of the title this year, but I just don't see them outscoring City's attack, even at home.

The Pick: Man City, 4-2

Leeds United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

The situation is dire for Leeds, but all is not lost (yet). With Burnley closing their season against Tottenham and Aston Villa, it's reasonable to predict they might lose out. If that proves to be the case, one win-- heck, even one point --would be enough to see the Peacocks survive. This weekend might be their best shot at getting that crucial win; Brighton are a good team that have often punched above their weight (see: their 4-0 win over Manchester United), but at 9th place, they comfortably have nothing to play for other than pride at this point. Unfortunately, pride seems to be on short supply at Leeds these days; they already had the look of a beaten team, and now you throw in Daniel James' red-card suspension and Raphina's possible injury...it looks dire for them at the moment.

The Pick: Brighton, 2-1

Newcastle United vs. Arsenal

The bad news: the highest-stakes edition of the North London Derby went about as poorly as possible for Arsenal the other day, and now their position in 4th place is in jeopardy. The good news: they still control their own destiny. Win these last two matches, and Arsenal is unexpectedly in next year's Champions League. That won't be an easy task, mind you, and this weekend feels especially precarious: it's a short turnaround from their demolition at Tottenham, they'll be shorthanded due to a mixture of injuries and suspensions, and they're on the road against a Newcastle side that has lost at home only once in 2022, a 1-0 decision a couple weeks ago to quadruple-chasing Liverpool. All that notwithstanding, I still think the Gunners have it in them to see this finish out, especially with the Magpies having nothing further to play for, as Eddie Howe has officially guided them to safety from relegation.

The Pick: Arsenal, 2-1

Southampton vs. Liverpool

If Liverpool win this one, Manchester City can't officially clinch the title unless the last matchday, though as discussed previously, it could be all but a formality if City defeat West Ham. This match will take place two days later, as Liverpool is spending this weekend in London battling Chelsea for the F.A. Cup. It's tempting to pick a Southampton upset here for that reason. Playing the Tuesday after a cup final would be tough anyway, regardless of the outcome; Liverpool may be riding the high of a trophy and find it hard to focus on this match 72 hours later, or they might be despairing the double whammy of an F.A. Cup loss and the likely end of the Premier League race. And with Southampton not technically safe from relegation and likely to face a heavily-rotated Liverpool squad, it's definitely possible. But, absent all the other context, I do still expect the Reds to win this one. They've always found it easier to score against Southampton, and I expect Jurgen Klopp and co. will refuse to believe the Premier League race is over until it's finally final.

The Pick: Liverpool, 2-0