Premier League Predictions, Week 29(ish)

Welcome back to your weekly predictions, Premier League fans! We once again had plenty of midweek action, be it makeup domestic matches, Champions League, or Europa League to tide us over. This will probably be the norm from here on out, given how many matches are yet to be played amongst multiple competitions, in just over two months' time. You won't hear any complaints from me.

You won't hear too many complaints from me about my predictions last week, either. I started as poorly as imaginable, as my upset pick that Burnley would take points off Chelsea backfired spectacularly, and my other bold pick that West Ham would take points off Liverpool narrowly missed. But, things turned around quickly, and my confidence in both North London teams to beat their relegation-threatened opponents and Manchester City to win the Manchester derby paid off, to the tune of a third consecutive 3/5 week. This brings me to 57.5/110 on the year. Which is, you know, perfectly mediocre.

But! The matches are less than 12 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste time being yet another mediocre white male. Here are your 5 for Week 26/27/28/29, depending on which team you cheer for!

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Liverpool

As a Liverpool fan, I have to say, tomorrow's match has 'trap game' written all over it. Early morning kickoff, on the road against a tricky team that they haven't beaten in their last 3 matchups-- yes, really --and coming amidst a clear downturn in form, (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, and an aggregate scoreline of 3-2 in their last 4 matches). Throw in the swirling rumors about Van Dijk, Thiago and Konate returning positive COVID tests, and you've got a recipe for a nightmare. But I actually think Brighton's stunning comeback at Anfield back in October might fuel the visitors' fire somewhat. I just don't think the 2021-22 iteration of this Liverpool team is one that lets the same team beat them twice-- yes, I know their last matchup was a draw, but in the context of a razor-thin title race, a home draw with Brighton is a loss. It will not surprise me at all if I'm wrong but I think the Reds eke out another tight one.

The Pick: Liverpool, 2-1

Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

These two clubs enter every year with Top 4 expectations, if not title aspirations, and the way both opened the season (United with a 5-1 bashing of Leeds, Tottenham with a stunning upset of champions City) did nothing to quell the hype. Yet, at this point in the season, this could essentially serve as an elimination match for the Top 4. We don't need to recap the full turbulent seasons by both clubs that led them to be this point, but the fact of the matter, both are looking up at Arsenal in 4th place, who have a match in hand over Tottenham, and three matches in hand over United. Both wildly talented but wildly inconsistent clubs need a win in this one to keep their hopes afloat and quite possibly sink the other's chances in one fell swoop. And though I've essentially given up trying to figure out which version of these teams will show up, I know dominant Tottenham showed out the last two weekends, winning both matches by a total of 9-0, and Bad United has shown out, failing to score against Watford and getting run off the pitch by City. That probably means it's Manchester United's turn to win. I don't know that it actually works that way, but I'm gonna guess it does until I'm proven wrong.

The Pick: Man United, 3-1

Chelsea vs. Newcastle United

Well. Chelsea has had... an interesting week, to say the least. Honestly, lost in the furor over the expulsion of Chelsea's ownership and the hoopla about the title race between Manchester City and Liverpool is the fact that Chelsea's form has been quite terrific over the last couple months. In mid-January, Chelsea was mired in the midst of a massive winless slump, and was fresh off a defeat by Manchester City and another draw with Brighton, but since that time they have won 9 out of 10 matches in all competitions (their sole loss being the thrilling PK shootout vs. Liverpool in the League Cup Final), outscoring opponents 20-5. Now the question becomes whether the Blues are mentally strong enough to block out the distractions to keep plugging ahead. Normally I would say a team as good as they can be could do so, but the sheer level of the firestorm Chelsea find themselves in is incredibly daunting. What's more, Newcastle, who was once in the thick of a relegation fight, has quietly been on incredible form themselves; the Magpies haven't lost since before Christmas! The combination of those things make me think we might be in for a Newcastle surprise this weekend. If Chelsea win this one comfortably, I'll stop picking underdogs to take points off them, I promise.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City

Crystal Palace has long been a team that plays better than their standing in the Premier League table and that is no different this season. They also have long been a team that gives Manchester City fits, and that was no different this season, as the Eagles stunned City 2-0 in the Etihad last October. Can Palace be a bogey team again, and throw a serious wrench in the title race? It's not out of the question, but considering City's form, I'd be surprised. After their stunning loss to Spurs and narrow win over Everton, they looked like a team reborn in their shellacking of their crosstown rivals last Sunday. I think high-flying, rip-roaring Manchester City might just be back.

The Pick: Man City, 4-2

Arsenal vs. Liverpool

The middle of next week presents another opportunity to make up rescheduled matches, and none of the midweek matches are as big as this one. Arsenal is currently sitting pretty in 4th place, ahead of Manchester Untied and West Ham by a point with three matches in hand, but in a 4-day stretch that includes matches against Leicester City and Liverpool, their fortunes could change quite swiftly. Liverpool, for their part, are still breathing down Manchester City's neck in the Premier League race, but in a 5-day stretch that includes two road matches against Brighton and Arsenal, their fortunes could change quite swiftly. It's hard to bet against either team based on current form, and though Liverpool have earned the right to be considered more reliable at this point, they also show significantly more signs of wearing thin than Arsenal do at the moment. I really don't think Liverpool escapes their next two matches with 6 points, and the Gunners seem the more likely team to hold them.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1