Premier League Predictions, Week 29
Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! It's been a long three weeks in the wilderness, with FA Cup action taking precedent two weeks ago, and the international break suspending club play last weekend. But the Premier League is back, with all its drama and high-stakes action, and so are we!
As it has been nearly a month since you heard from me, you may not remember, but last time out, I continued my good run in what has easily been my best predictions season yet. The "4th place Derby" went awfully awry, as Aston Villa did not in fact draw Tottenham but rather capitulated at home, 0-4. But wins by Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea did in fact come to fruition, with the latter a late Newcastle consolation goal away from a perfect scoreline prediction. And in the biggest match of the weekend (and one of the biggest of the year so far), Liverpool and Manchester City did in fact battle to a 1-1 draw, as I expected. Despite the wild Villa-Tottenham miss, I rescued a 4.5/5 week, bringing my season total to a nice, clean 75/110.
But now, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time admiring our body of work. Here are your 5 for Week 29!
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Luton Town
After fumbling away their game in hand, Tottenham needs a win to keep the pressure on Aston Villa in the Top 4 race. Luton Town’s survival hopes were given a new lease with Nottingham Forest’s points deduction, but still need points every chance they can get to keep ahead of a wildly tight relegation battle. The Hatters have punched above their weight several times already this season, but those occasions have usually been in front of a home crowd. I have a harder time seeing them do it in Tottenham’s stadium.
The Pick: Tottenham, 3-1
Aston Villa vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
Regardless of how Tottenham’s match turns out, they won’t have to wait long to see how their most direct Top 4 rival fares, as Aston Villa plays immediately after them. Wolverhampton has quietly started to put together a good run of form, and could very well push Unai Emery’s men. But given what Villa is playing for, and the fact that they haven’t won a league match in nearly a month, I have to imagine they’ll be motivated to get the job done at home.
The Pick: Aston Villa, 2-1
Brentford vs. Manchester United
English teams’ success in all European competitions thus far has made it all but a certainty that the Premier League will get 5 spots in next year’s Champions League, instead of the usual 4. That news came as a blessing to Manchester United, as their inconsistent, frustrating season suddenly has a real opportunity to yield a Champions League berth next season. They can start putting pressure on the teams above them by knocking off a tricky Brentford team on the road. The Bees have often had United’s number since joining England’s top division, but this is the weakest iteration of their team in a while.
The Pick: Man United, 3-2
Liverpool vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
Liverpool’s finish immediately before the international break was less than ideal. A draw against Manchester City is never a bad result, but settling for one at home in a match that the Reds dominated feels like a big missed opportunity. Exiting the FA Cup due to a late collapse at rivals Man United immediately afterward didn’t help the mood, either. Now, their title chase resumes against a team that has been a bogey side for them a few years running now.- Liverpool haven’t beaten Brighton at home since November 2019. The Gulls this season are wildly unpredictable, and vacillate between brilliant and completely discombobulated, meaning this match will either be a frustrating draw for the hosts, or a 6-2 romp. But, given how my sporting luck has gone this weekend in March Madness, I’m gonna go ahead and assume the worst for my beloved Reds.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Manchester City vs. Arsenal
It feels like an eternity ago, but it was just last game week that we had Leg 2 (or really, Leg 5) of the “Premier League Championship,” and here we get Leg 3. The last time any of the triumvirate of the three title contenders will face each other takes place Sunday afternoon, as current leaders Arsenal go to 3rd place and reigning champions Manchester City. Even though it’s obviously not, this really does have the feel of an elimination match if there is to be a winner: for Arsenal, because they have a significantly harder remaining schedule than their fellow title contenders, and for Manchester City, because it would drop them to an even bigger deficit in 3rd place. The Gunners are for real this season, and I fully expect them to be up for the fight. But it’s Manchester City, and it’s their home stadium. I struggle to see a scenario in which they don’t at least get a point, and I think they might get all 3.
The Pick: Man City, 2-1
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