Premier League Predictions, Week 28(ish)

Welcome back to your weekly predictions, Premier League fans! If you're fortunate enough to cheer for a club that was still alive in the FA Cup Fifth Round (or if you're unfortunate enough to cheer for Burnley), you once again got a double dose of football this week, thanks to some glorious domestic cup action the last few days.

Speaking of glorious domestic cup action, yes, I am still celebrating Liverpool's epic Carabao Cup triumph in the thrilling Final over Chelsea last week. It's always been a Mickey Mouse trophy until this year, when suddenly it matters every bit as much as the Champions League. My excitement was only slightly tempered by the fact that I had predicted a 1-0 Chelsea victory, landing a blow to my weekly score. I also incorrectly assumed Manchester United would roll over Watford, when in fact they dropped points to the Hornets for the second time this season. However, my other three predictions all panned out in the form of Tottenham, West Ham, and Manchester City winning! (Though, in the case of the latter, not without serious controversy.) My second consecutive 3/5 week took me to 54.5/105 on the year.

But! The matches are less than 12 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste time making like City and notching wins off dubious officiating. Here are your 5 for Week 25/26/27/28, depending on which team you cheer for!

Burnley vs. Chelsea

Their narrow-but-devastating defeat in the League Cup Final notwithstanding, Chelsea has slowly begun to regain the form that saw them atop the Premier League table last Fall. It's likely too little, too late to make any serious run at the league title, but it has been enough to see them into the quarterfinal round of both the FA Cup and Champions League, and should it keep up, will be enough to solidify their spot in the Premier League's Top 3. On the other end of table, Burnley had also quietly enjoyed a better run of form, going 4 matches without a loss, but then came Wednesday's ugly showing vs. Leicester. Still, the Clarets have a chance to climb out of the relegation zone if they avoid defeat at home to Chelsea, and even with the latter's advantage in both talent and form, I think that motivation might be enough to hold the Blues to a stalemate.

The Pick: Draw, 0-0

Liverpool vs. West Ham United

Liverpool's epic penalty shootout on Sunday and mostly comfortable win in the FA Cup over Norwich on Wednesday kept the dreams of a "quadruple" alive. Of course, the quadruple hinges on them being able to win the Premier League, and being able to win the Premier League likely hinges on them avoiding a loss to West Ham United, and that won't be easy, considering the Hammers are one of the two teams to beat Liverpool in any competition all season. David Moyes' boys haven't lost in over a month and last weekend scored a vital victory over Wolves to stay right in the thick of the Top 4 race. That fact + the emotional energy Liverpool has expended this week in two elimination games in domestic cups makes me worried for the Reds this weekend. No, they're not going to lose at Anfield, but as we've seen this season when Manchester City and Brighton came to town, it doesn't mean they can't lose leads and drop points when the opponent is solid enough.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Watford vs. Arsenal

Thanks to COVID reschedules and domestic cup ties (which they were not involved in), Arsenal will have gone ten days between matches, somewhat bizarrely. The somewhat longer layoff might have them even more primed and ready to come out firing this weekend, but it also risks stalling the great momentum they had built with three consecutive victories. The Gunners technically sit in 6th place, but only two points behind 4th, and with three less matches played. In other words, win their matches in hand, and they are in Champions League position by some margin. However, they can ill afford to look ahead to a massive week next week, which will see them host both Leicester City and Liverpool; first they have to get past a Watford side that just stole a point at Old Trafford. The Hornets are in second-to-last place, but feel like the relegation-threatened team most likely to throw some punches above their weight; as a Liverpool fan, I sure know that to be true of them, anyway. I'm going to pick Arsenal in a tight one here, but I will not be surprised in the least if things go a little haywire for the North London side.

The Pick: Arsenal, 1-0

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Everton

Tottenham finally seemed like they may be sailing for fairer skies when they broke through with a dominant 4-0 romp at Leeds last weekend... then two days later they crashed out of the FA Cup at the hands of second-division side Middlesbrough. If Antonio Conte and his lads are going to make any serious run at the Top 4, they need to start winning NOW, and dropping points against a massively underachieving Everton side would probably be their final death knell in the Champions League race. I'm going Spurs, just because it's at home, and Everton have been that bad this season, but if the Toffees, who just booked their place in the FA Cup quarterfinals, feel like waking up and playing to their potential, things could get interesting.

The Pick: Tottenham, 3-2

Manchester City vs. Manchester United

Tottenham and Everton close out the weekend, but, perhaps depending on whether Liverpool can finish off West Ham, all eyes will be on Manchester for the biggest story out of this matchweek. It's been a long time since we've seen a Manchester Derby between two title contenders, and that's no different here: United ain't winning the league. But, despite a season full of disappointments, they can still finish in the Top 4, and with just two wins from their last five, they'll be desperate to put perhaps their toughest remaining contest in the rearview with a victory. City, meanwhile, still stand atop the Premier League table, but it's increasingly shaky ground. The shocking dropped points against Southampton and Tottenham saw Liverpool close their lead to just 3 points, and even with that knowledge, even coming off a loss, even playing against a relegation-threatened opponent, they still needed a ridiculous missed call from the referee to secure a win last week. I think it's probably safe to say City are not responding to pressure quite as well as Pep Guardiola would like, and that's a troubling sign heading into a fixture that, believe it or not, has been won by their crosstown rivals three out of the last four seasons. This is another one that I could see going any which way: given City's recent form and United's need for a win, the Red Devils really might just do it again. Alternatively, the latter could show up intimidated and uninspired and we could see a repeat of Liverpool's demolition of United in October. Safest bet for me, though, is that last week was the ultimate wake-up call for this City side, and they start their long run to close out the title now.

The Pick: Man City, 2-0