Premier League Predictions, Week 27(ish)

Welcome back to your weekly predictions, Premier League fans! This has been the best kind of football week, one that has held a never-ending stream of matches! Between more Champions League and Europa League action, and makeup matches that saw many (but not all, or even most) clubs get back on schedule to 26 matches played in the Premier League, there has been something to tune into every day, and now, we're already back for the next matchweek.

The next slew of matches can't come too soon, too...I'm ready to get back to winning ways in my predictions. It wasn't a BAD week last time out, mind-- just not as good as it could have been. I started strong with the easy wins: Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United dispatching of their opponents, but to be fair, none doing so remotely as easily as I predicted. I whiffed badly on my bold prediction that Manchester City would humiliate Tottenham; not only did they not do so, they went ahead and lost to the Spurs, at home. Then, being mere minutes away from a perfect Arsenal-Wolves prediction yesterday, I watched with agony as Alexandre Lacazette's last-minute winner for the Gunners took me from a 4.5/5 week to a 3/5 week, dropping me to 51.5/100. At least I'm above 50%...

But, the matches are already back underway, so let's not waste time rueing missed opportunities. Here are your 5 for Week 25/26/27/24, depending on which team you cheer for!

Leeds United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

The first matchup of Premier League Saturday is a showdown between two teams positively desperate for a win. Leeds haven't won a match since mid-January, and suddenly is just barely hovering above the drop zone. Their season went from disappointing to "oh, we're in trouble" very fast. Tottenham, meanwhile, came into the City match on a three-game slide, and despite getting a thrilling, famous victory at the Etihad instantly reverted to bad form with a shock loss to Burnley on Wednesday. Antonio Conte publicly lamented after this loss, saying "he needs to do better" as a manager, and though that might be right, his team also needs to do much better if they're going to play Champions League football next season. So who wins 'Disappointment Derby'? Normally I would say the motivation to avoid relegation trumps the motivation to just stick around in the race for Top 4, but Leeds have just been so hapless of late that I can't see them winning.

The Pick: Tottenham, 3-1

Manchester United vs. Watford

Manchester United are back in the Top 4, but thanks to Arsenal's thrilling comeback against Wolves yesterday, are just 1 point clear of a team that has two games in hand against them. This is no time for them to panic, though, because the Red Devils sneakily have recovered really good form; they're unbeaten since January 3, in fact.Watford presents an interesting conundrum as an opponent: the Hornets are clearly inferior on paper, and have taken their shellackings from good teams this season. But at the same time, they're in a desperate fight to avoid relegation, and are capable of surprises; see: the first match between these two sides. All that being said, United look focused at the moment and surely won't lose to the same team again...right?

The Pick: Man United, 4-2

Everton vs. Manchester City

All of a sudden, thanks to Manchester City's shock loss to Tottenham, the Premier League race is back on. For all the buzz from Liverpool fans and neutrals alike, though, City still control the lead and their own destiny, and get Liverpool at home, so there's no cause for alarm yet. But, they certainly need to refocus because there is no margin for error any more. Fortunately, they get the chance to recover nicely from their loss with what should be a romp. I know I errantly predicted City would waltz through their last opponent, and it's a road match against a relegation-threatened side. But....it's Everton. I just can't see City not dominating this one.

The Pick: Man City, 4-1

West Ham United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

Yesterday, Wolves blew a huge chance to gain real traction in the Top 4 race after leading at Arsenal 1-0 in the 82nd minute. A win would have put them 3 points back from Manchester United with a match in hand, as opposed to the 6 back they are instead. West Ham can relate to that disappointment; they've dropped 4 points from winning positions in last two matches vs. Leicester and Newcastle, and 4 points is their exact deficit to United in 4th place. Who wins in this battle between two overachieving sides in the thick of a Top 4 race, both dropping points at a crucial time? Honestly, I really like Wolves more as a consistent, cohesive side, and if I were a bit braver, I'd pick them in this match. But both because West Ham have them at home and also because it's been two matches without a win for the Hammers, I think they pull out a much-needed W.

The Pick: West Ham, 2-1

Chelsea vs. Liverpool (League Cup Final)

This is a "Premier League Predictions" first: using this space for a prediction on a match that is not in fact being played in the Premier League! The Carabao Cup Final on Sunday morning is not something I would generally pay much attention to, but it does feature the current 2nd and 3rd-best teams in the league. And, as it is still an EFL competition, and is rendering Liverpool and Chelsea, as well as their would-be opponents Arsenal and Leicester, out of commission this PL weekend, there is a dearth of really big league matches this weekend. Thus, I figured I would include a preview of this final.

As it stands, all signs are pointing to a Liverpool win on Sunday. There's no question they're the hottest team in England, if not Europe as a whole, right now, and their current form domestically and in the Champions League, coupled with the rare missteps from Manchester City have Reds fans dreaming of the ever-elusive "quadruple." What's more, ever since losing Reece James and Ben Chilwell in quick succession at the end of 2021, Chelsea have faced a seemingly neverending revolving door of injury concerns.

And yet.... I can't shake the feeling that Chelsea will surprise in this one, a la the Champions League Final last year. For starters, the injury concern is overblown: they've gotten a boost with reports that James, Hakim Ziyech and Mateo Kovačić (the latter of whom was Man of the Match vs. Liverpool on New Year's Day) might all be fit to go. Meanwhile, Liverpool face a very possible reality of attacking the experienced Chelsea back line without the services of Roberto Firmino and Diogo Jota, the latter of whom almost singlehandedly won Liverpool's semifinal tie for them. Of course the frontline of Mo Salah, Sadio Mané and Luis Diaz will still present the sternest of tests, to say nothing of Takumi Minamino or Divock Origi, who have been Liverpool's stars in this tournament. But I have a feeling Thomas Tuchel will use what has become a clear 'underdog' tag to his team's advantage and have a compact, tight team ready to smother Liverpool and grab the trophy at Wembley that eluded them last season.

The Pick: Chelsea, 1-0