Premier League Predictions, Week 25

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! In a week that saw several clubs resume European action, all the footballing action this weekend takes place within the sovereign borders of the clubs' home nations.

Maybe a little spark of Champions League inspiration is all we needed! And no, I'm not, as you might assume, referring to my favorite team Liverpool snapping their 3-loss duck with a midweek European victory. Okay, I am, but I'm also referring to my own success! After an impressive stretch of 4 straight sub-.500 performances (not my first slump such as this on the season, either), I announced my return to glory last gameweek. In fact, were it not for underestimating Big Sam and West Brom, or for some late Leicester City and Manchester City goals, I would have had a near-flawless outing. But given the year it's been, I'll take 4/5 every time. 49.5/105 is still an ugly number, but is marginally better than the percentage I had before.

But, the matches are less than 12 hours away from starting back up, so let's not waste any more time prematurely congratulating me on my turnaround. Here are your 5 for Week 25!

Southampton vs. Chelsea

Last week I finally believed in Thomas Tuchel's Chelsea and it paid off in the form of an accurate prediction (finally!). The Blues' turnaround is striking, garnering 13 points from 15 and suddenly vaunting themselves back in the Top 4. Can they keep the good mojo going? Well, they face a team that less than two months ago had Top 4 dreams themselves, but thanks to six consecutive losses are now closer to the relegation zone than they are to Champions League contention. Southampton are desperate to right the ship, and we know they have the attacking prowess to do it. But something tells me a rejuvenated, organized Chelsea side is the last opponent they want to see when trying to right the ship.

The Pick: Chelsea, 3-1

Liverpool vs. Everton

The sign of any true rivalry is that it never fails to entertain, and that is certainly true of the Merseyside Derby. Despite its historical one-sidedness, it has never failed to entertain. The first meeting between these two, back in October of 2020, was one of the most exhilarating matches of the Premier League season. Everton came into that match atop the league, having won all their matches, but were beaten back from the early stages by a motivated Liverpool squad. However, two goals against the run of play, multiple significant injuries, red cards, and VAR controversies later, they secured an unforgettable 2-2 draw. Given how livid Liverpool was in the wake of that match (having seen two star players and a sure victory stolen from them) and Everton's current form, you'd expect them to be the favorites this time around. Yet, as a Liverpool fan, I weirdly feel less confident in a positive result this match than I did the first time around, despite having them at home. Liverpool can't stop losing in the Premier League, either, and suddenly have completely forgotten how to win at home. I genuinely don't know what will happen tomorrow, but this rivalry's always good for a dull 0-0 match at least once in the series, so I'll go with that.

The Pick: Draw, 0-0

West Ham United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

This London derby features two sides with differing fates and differing performances relative to expectations. West Ham has spent most of this season quietly overachieving. I don't know anyone-- certainly not myself--that would have expected the Hammers tied for 4th place with 14 matches to go in the season. Tottenham, meanwhile, came into the year with high hopes for Jose Mourinho's first full season, and even sat at 1st place in the league for a brief window of time in December. It's been all downhill for Spurs since then, however. Just 2 wins from their last 10, over bottom feeders West Brom and Sheffield United, have sunk them to 9th place, and a loss this weekend would quite possibly spell doom for their Top 4 hopes. But it's that 'desperation time' factor that makes me think that Spurs will pull off the "upset." There's no question West Ham are playing better right now, but there's also no question Spurs have the deeper squad, and it's tough for me to see them losing a match that they absolutely must have.

The Pick: Tottenham, 2-1

Aston Villa vs. Leicester City

The last time these two sides met, neither had lost, and in the battle for "unexpected Premier League leader," Ross Barkley fired in a stoppage time winner for Aston Villa. This time around, the context is a little different, but a competitive match can be expected once again. Leicester still sits in the Top 4, and their win over Liverpool last weekend only fortified their good standing. Aston Villa find themselves 6 points outside the Champions League spots, but with two games in hand over most of their peers, that's not particularly precarious. Both sides have proven to be football-forward sides, unpredictable in the best and worst ways. No result would truly surprise me, and I'm tempted to go Villa on account of them needing a victory more, but I just can't see Leicester losing to this team twice in one season.

The Pick: Leicester, 3-2

Arsenal vs. Manchester City

Nobody-- and I do mean nobody --has been able to stop Manchester City over the last two months. Until Liverpool and Everton, nobody had even been able to score on Manchester City over the last two months, and the former was from a penalty kick. Can former City assistant Mikel Arteta and Arsenal be the ones to finally bring the train to a halt? It's not as absurd a suggestion as it might have been a few months back. The Gunners have flipped a serious switch since Christmas, and though their 7-match unbeaten streak came to an end with a mini-slump against Wolves and Aston Villa, last weekend they righted the ship with a dominant display over the always-tricky Leeds. The first meeting between these two was a surprisingly competitive 1-0 win for City, and I think Pep Guardiola would be the first to acknowledge that Arsenal are a better side than they were in October. Unfortunately for the Gunners, City are also a better side than they were in October, and it's not even close. I believe in the potential for Arteta and co. to restore the quality of his old club, but Manchester City is just on a completely different playing field right now, and it will take someone actually getting points off of them for me to consider predicting anything but a win.

The Pick: Manchester City, 2-0