Premier League Predictions, Week 24

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! Thanks to Champions League action on Tuesday and Wednesday, Europa League on Thursday, and Fulham and Wolverhampton's clash earlier today, we're headed for a week straight of football. Europe making a play to draw eyeballs away from March Madness, perhaps?

Speaking of madness, my trendy upset picks and seemingly safe bets both continued to miss the mark last week. Sure, frontrunners Arsenal and Manchester United did in fact beat Aston Villa and Leicester City, as I predicted. But I did not at all foresee Nottingham Forest's shock draw with Manchester City, nor Fulham and Liverpool's road wins at favored Brighton and Newcastle, respectively. I had been bobbing ever closer and closer to that .500 line, but my 2/5 week officially drops my season percentage below that mark, with a score of 34.5/70, exactly on .500.

But hey, the games are less than 12 hours away from resuming, so no time for bemoaning my managed decline. Here are your 4 for Week 24, and 1 for Week 7! (Yes, you read that correctly.)

Leicester City vs. Arsenal

A week or so ago, this felt like a much more clear-cut upset pick. Leicester were starting to quietly improve, historically have given Arsenal fits, and the Gunners had just collected 1 point out of 9. Then, last weekend, Arsenal notched a crucial come-from-behind victory to restore their league lead, and the Foxes capitulated at Manchester United. I've gone back and forth on this one, because the results from last week suggest two teams a world apart not only in quality this season, but also current form; yet, it still feels like there's a good amount of "trap game" potential here, thanks in no small part to the early kickoff in a hostile environment for Arsenal. I'm going to split the difference and predict a draw, but truthfully, I wouldn't be too surprised by any potential outcome of this one.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Bournemouth vs. Manchester City

Fresh off their biggest win of the year, a road victory at Arsenal to jump into 1st place in the Premier League, Manchester City turned around and ceded a late equalizer to Nottingham Forest to gift the league lead right back. It's been that kind of a season for City: so many instances of the quality we've come to expect from them over the last decade, but far more brain farts against lesser opponents than anyone is used to. They have recovered well from each of their losses and draws this season anyway, though, and unfortunately for Bournemouth, the Cherries are the exact kind of team that are ripe for being taken to the woodshed by Guardiola's men.

The Pick: Man City, 5-1

Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool

For what feels like the millionth time this season, Liverpool fans' hopes that the great turnaround in form had begun were quickly snuffed out. Two decisive victories in the Premier League gave way to a lightning quick start against Real Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday, and it felt like maybe, just maybe, the Reds of years past were back. Then their 2-0 lead suddenly transformed into a monstrous 2-5 collapse in a match (second half, really) that perfectly encapsulated just how off the boil Liverpool has been this season. The good news for the Reds is that Champions League play has no effect on the Premier League season, and sitting just 7 points back from 4th-place Tottenham with two matches in hand, the Top 4 is very much still in play for them. The bad news is, Tuesday was the sort of loss that can do irreparable mental and emotional damage, and a road trip to face a tricky bogey team of years past, especially one that is desperately on the prowl for their first win of 2023, is not the friendliest context in which to nurture psychological recovery.

The Pick: Crystal Palace, 3-2

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea

A classic London derby takes on a different significance this season (or more specifically, this half of this season). When these two first met all the way back in mid-August, it was a thrilling, feisty affair between two teams that entered the season with title hopes-- and ended with this notorious "handshake." Fast forward 6 months, and neither club is remotely in the race for the Premier League crown, Tottenham is trying to cling on to Top 4 hopes, and Chelsea is treading water near the bottom half of the league with Graham Potter now at the helm rather than Thomas Tuchel. Spurs' inconsistency has been their undoing this season. They've been far less reliable than a side with as proven quantities as Antonio Conte, Harry Kane and Heung-min Son should be. But they have at least shown glimpses of being good, most notably in their victory over Manchester City 3 weeks ago. Chelsea have looked a shell of their 2021-early 2022 selves this season, with next to no noteworthy wins on the books, and mediocre performances stockpiling up on each other. That's the difference between the two here, and considering the higher stakes AND home-field advantage for Tottenham, it's tough for me to see a way Chelsea wins this one.

The Pick: Tottenham, 2-1

Arsenal vs. Everton

In the middle of next week, Arsenal and Everton will finally play their rescheduled Week 7 matchup at the Emirates Stadium. You will likely remember that these two clubs met mere weeks ago, and in that meeting, the Toffees and brand new manager Sean Dyche delivered a stunning blow to Arsenal that set off their league title-damaging three-match slump. Everton's new manager bounce, however, gave way to an entirely listless defeat at the hands of rivals Liverpool the following week, and regardless of the result of the Gunners' tricky matchup with Leicester tomorrow morning, there's no chance Arsenal let a poor Everton side trip them up twice in their highly competitive title race.

The Pick: Arsenal, 3-0