Premier League Predictions, Week 22

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! We're finally starting to feel back in the swing of a normal season after the bizarre, and with European football returning next week, that normalcy will only increase.

Last week, however, was anything but normal. The weekend that was in the Premier League saw the top two teams in the league both lose, Liverpool's stunning slump continue with a loss to a relegation-threatened team, and the Top 4 race tighten even more. For my part, I missed on some "upsets," inaccurately predicting that Chelsea and Newcastle would take care of Fulham and West Ham, respectively, instead of settling for draws. However, I predicted Manchester United's victory over Crystal Palace, and I must say, my two bold upset predictions aged very well. Manchester City did in fact lose to Tottenham yet again, and while I admittedly didn't think Everton would win the damn thing, my incredibly hot take that one of the worst teams in the league would take points off the #1 team earns me partial credit. That takes my season total to 30.5/60, which is reeeeallly flirting with .500 now.

But hey, the games are less than 12 hours away from resuming, so no time for tap-dancing around the red line. Here are your 5 for Week 22!

Arsenal vs. Brentford

The first match of significance this weekend features the league leaders in an attempt to right the ship. Arsenal's stunning loss to Everton last Saturday, their first since last September, could have been a massive bump in the road, but their biggest rivals Tottenham did them a huge favor by beating title challengers Manchester City later in the weekend. This 'bounceback match' will likely be tougher than expected; Thomas Frank's Brentford are unbeaten in their last NINE in the league, going all the way back to October, and as such, are flirting with a Europa League berth. I think they will be up for a fight, and make this match a whole lot nervier than Gunner fans would like. But, last weekend notwithstanding, the biggest difference with this Arsenal team all season has been mental strength, and playing at home and in need of a win, I think they will pull through in the 2nd half.

The Pick: Arsenal, 2-1

Bournemouth vs. Newcastle United

With Arsenal's loss, Newcastle became the only team in the league to record just one loss on the season, and the Magpies' unbeaten streak that dates all the way back to August continued last weekend. But it continued in the form of yet another draw, and if they are going to put in any serious push for staying power in the Top 4, let alone keep alive their dream of a title chase, they absolutely need to start converting these draws into wins. Fortunately for Newcastle, their next opponent is relegation-bound Bournemouth, who should represent the clearest opportunity for a win in some time.

The Pick: Newcastle, 4-2

Leeds United vs. Manchester United

It's not often one gets to say this: this is a rematch of a league game played just 2 days ago! Leeds and their old rivals just played their rescheduled Week 8 showdown on Wednesday, and now both sides will bus back to Manchester this weekend for their Week 22 matchup. It was a thriller on Wednesday; despite losing the figurehead of 'Leeds USA' with the firing of American manager Jesse Marsch, the Peacocks still seemed to experience the new manager bounce, jumping out to a stunning 2-0 halftime lead. But United fought back in a pulsating 2nd half to force the underdogs to settle for a 2-2 draw. Better than a loss, to be sure, but it may be time for the Red Devils to worry just a little: they have quietly only won 1 of their last 4. Given the toughness of their midfield, the hopeful injection of new energy, and a sure-to-be raucous home crowd, it seems like all the parts are there for a Leeds win Sunday morning... but I just can't see them turning around and taking points off Man United again. It certainly could happen, but it really felt like Wednesday was their chance to land the big upset win, and they let it slip.

The Pick: Man United, 2-1

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa

It's also not often, at least in the last decade, that one gets to say this: this has been a week from hell for Manchester City. One day after an unexpected loss to Arsenal opened the door for them to make up ground in the title race, they were foiled yet again by Tottenham, perpetual thorns in their side that they are, and just a few days later, the Premier League dropped a bombshell set of allegations towards the club for alleged financial foul play. The accusations themselves couldn't have been all too surprising to anyone who has been following the dealings of the state-owned club, but the rumored ramifications, if upheld, threaten to be very serious, adding another, even darker, layer of clouds over what has been a frustrating season for Pep Guardiola and co. Fortunately for them, Guardiola is very good at using "us against the world" anger for motivation, and hapless Aston Villa should make easy Fury Fodder.

The Pick: Man City, 6-2

Liverpool vs. Everton

It's no secret to anyone, let alone their manager and fans, that it all has gone horribly wrong for Liverpool this season. The reigning runners-up were hopeful that the World Cup break at midseason would provide a recovery period and mental reset after a rocky first half, but instead the Reds are on a 3-match losing streak, haven't won in the year 2023, and in fact, the last time a Liverpool player scored a game winner in the league was Boxing Day 2022. Their star forwards can't generate chances, and the injury-riddled defense can't stop conceding goals; nothing is working, in short. And now, for good measure, the always-chippy Everton come to town for the Merseyside Derby, with their brand new manager Sean Dyche, who has proven to be more of a nightmare for Jürgen Klopp in the league than just about any other head man. Now, it should be noted that Liverpool simply don't lose to Everton at Anfield (they did so in the COVID season, but the last instance with fans present was September 1999), and what's more, finally got some positive injury news, with Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino, and Virgil Van Dijk all poised to return. But I can't possibly pick them to full-on win at the moment, not on the evidence of.. *gestures widely.*

The Pick: Draw, 1-1