Premier League Predictions, Week 21
Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! And Happy New Year! Yes, I know we are nearly a fortnight into the new year by now, but due to the long gap in league action presented by a weekend plus of domestic cup play, this marks our first Premier League weekend in 2024. So it's back to the predictions we go!
When you last heard from me, alllll the way back in 2023, I had a very promising-looking week fizzle out. The Manchester City and Aston Villa wins over their relegation-bound opponents unsurprisingly bore out, although the latter was a whole lot tighter than I anticipated, and then Fulham upset Arsenal, which I'm giving myself half-credit for, given that I did expect the Cottagers to get a surprise point off the favorites. But half-credit isn't full-credit, and I ended with a whimper as Liverpool won when I expected they might draw, and West Ham drew when I expected they might win. My 2.5/5 performance brought my 2023 YTD mark to 46/72, a rapidly dropping percentage from my golden season start.
Now, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time in freefall. Here are your 5 for Week 21!
Chelsea vs. Fulham
Burnley and Luton's relegation derby technically kicked off the weekend in league play today, but the first real match of the weekend will be the West London derby, which presents an interesting clash of fortunes. Chelsea's disappointing season has been on full display in the media coverage, but Fulham (albeit with a vast gulf between their rivals in wealth and resources) too have floundered this season, failing to recapture the magic of last year that saw them threatening for European football until the final month. Both teams also took losses in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semifinals this week, giving them all the more reason to push hard for a win this weekend. I'm not sure either team will get it though; this has 'frustrating home draw' for Chelsea written all over it.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Newcastle United vs. Manchester City
Derby weekend continues, this time in the "Oil Clasico," a matchup between two nation-state-owned, soulless clubs playing under the banner of sportswashing. The one redeeming factor of the inaugural Middle Eastern 'rivalry' in the 22-23 season was that it was absolute must-watch television, a pulsating 3-3 draw that teased Newcastle's staying power at the top level. In the two matchups since, though, Manchester City eased past the Toons in a fairly mundane affair, and I expect that might be the case. Newcastle still have talent. but are limping right now, and City may not be their best yet, but come on.... it's City.
The Pick: Man City, 3-1
Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur
The first leg of this tie, played in the second week of the season, marked the vastly different starts to the season both Top 4 hopefuls underwent: Tottenham's 2-0 win was their first under Ange Postecoglou, and helped propel them to their unbeaten start that lasted into mid-October, while for Man United fans, it was more misery and pessimism, and another choppy start that they still haven't fully recovered from. Spurs have, of course, fallen off since their dream start to the season, but have recovered a good bit of their mojo in the last few weeks, while the Red Devils have simply had a miserable go of it, crashing out of the Champions League in the last month while also earning only 4 points from their last 15. I do still trust Tottenham more than United at this point, but I also think the hosts haven't called it a season yet, and won't go down at home without a fight.
The Pick: Draw, 2-2
Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace
Speaking of slumping teams, boy, was the holiday season bad to Arsenal. The Gunners fought to a tough, well-earned point at Anfield against Liverpool to enter Christmas Day as the league leaders for the second straight season... then it all fell apart. Consecutive losses meant Arsenal, too, took home just 4 of their last 15 points, and if slipping all the way down to 4th place in the league amidst that wasn't enough of a kick in the teeth, they started off their 2024 by crashing out of the FA Cup at home to a Liverpool team down several starters. This is a team that needs a win bad...but the good news, I think they will get it. As Liverpool and the Manchester teams can all testify, Crystal Palace is no pushover, but I don't think the Eagles have enough in the tank to upset a motivated, rested side at their home pitch.
The Pick: Arsenal, 2-0
Bournemouth vs. Liverpool
In the continuing weirdness of the Premier League schedule, Week 21 stretches from this weekend through next weekend, so just as Arsenal-Palace before them will, these two sides will play their showdown not this Sunday, but next Sunday. Bournemouth are on a bit of a roll, and helmed by reigning Premier League Player of the Month Dominic Solanke, have enough firepower to cause just about anyone trouble at home, so I do not see this as an easy win for league leaders Liverpool, by any means. Particularly when you consider Liverpool's typical starting XI has been decimated by injuries and continental tournament absences. But... I don't know, there's something about these Reds this season. How many times have we seen them concede first, come out sloppy, look like utter shite for about 60 minutes and then find a way to not just salvage a point but actually win the match? Heck, we saw the same film just a couple days ago in the Cup semifinal tie vs. Fulham. Don't be surprised at all to see the same story play out in this match, too.
The Pick: Liverpool, 2-1
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