Premier League Predictions, Week 19

© Micah Veldkamp, 2021

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Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! Yes, it's really me! Yes, it's really back!

Between the long World Cup midseason break, as well as busy travel and holiday schedule, a whoooole lot of soccer has happened since the last one of these pieces. Most internationally, but some domestically. But with the season now fully resumed and back in full swing, I suppose it's time we get back in the saddle and start doling out some weekend predictions again, huh? If you can remember this far back, I entered the World Cup break with a 27/50 mark on my predictions. Not a pretty number, but if I'm being honest, I just wanted to go in above .500, so.... mission accomplished!

But hey, the games are less than 12 hours away, so no time for winning meaningless trophies. Here are your 5 for Week 19!

Manchester United vs. Manchester City

If not necessarily the 'highest-stakes' Manchester derby in some time, this is certainly one of the most evenly-matched, at least on paper, since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement. United have had stints higher in the table than their current 4th-place position, but Erik ten Hag has them playing with a clear identity and consistency that previous Top 4 Man United teams did not have. Plus, this may be the most beatable City team since Pep Guardiola's first season at the helm, as a draw with Everton and losses to Brentford and Southampton (all within their last 5 matches) evidenced. All of that, plus the fact that this match is at Old Trafford, makes me want to be bold and predict a Red Devils win...but I just can't bring myself to do it. It still feels to me like it's a matter of time before the switch flips and Manchester City go on a tear to clinch the Premier League title, and I think a rivalry match where they're in the rare position of not being a clear favorite will present the perfect opportunity to jump-start that run.

The Pick: Man City, 3-2

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Liverpool

If Liverpool were hoping that the World Cup/holiday break presented a window for their team to get healthy, and come back stronger in the second half of the season, the early returns are not promising. The Reds did enjoy a 4-match winning streak sandwiched around the break, but the injury list is growing larger rather than smaller, and a listless loss at Brentford on New Year's featured more of the same maddening inconsistency. Now their race to stay in Top 4 contention takes them on the road to Brighton, a team only one point behind them in the table and who were good enough to hold them to a thrilling 3-3 draw at Anfield. One thing I will say about Liverpool this season is that they have not lost back-to-back matches (unless you count their uninspiring home draw to last-place Wolves in the FA Cup last weekend a loss, which, fair play to you). That, plus the absence of Brighton's Leandro Trossard, who tortured Liverpool for a hat trick in that first meeting, makes me think a loss is not necessarily in the cards for them tomorrow. But no way can I in good conscience predict a victory for them, based on form.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Brentford vs. Bournemouth

Lost amidst the title race, the relegation fight and Chelsea and Liverpool's shockingly disappointing seasons, is the unlikely success story of Brentford. The Bees have quietly gone on a 6-match unbeaten run, in a stretch that included matches against Manchester City, Tottenham and Liverpool, and have worked their way into the Top 10 to get in striking distance of the Top 4. Their next opponent up is the wildly ping-ponging Bournemouth, who have spent time in the relegation zone, in the Top 10, and now are back flirting with the bottom 3. Bournemouth's positive style of play makes them an occasionally thorn in favored teams' sides, but it also makes them more susceptible to organized team attacks like the one Brentford has.

The Pick: Brentford, 4-2

Newcastle United vs. Fulham

When they were bought by an entire nation whose wealth dwarfed literally all other clubs’ owners, it felt inevitable that Newcastle would eventually join the “big boys” in the top of the Premier League. What has been a surprise to most is just how quickly they’ve gotten there. Still a long ways to go, obviously, but the Magpies are in 3rd place, and are playing like a bona fide contender, hanging with the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City, and demolishing everyone else behind them. Fulham, however, have also been remarkably solid; they entered the World Cup break with back-to-back losses to the Manchester team, but have come back out of the gates with a 6-match unbeaten streak, good enough to see them sneaking up into 6th place and touching distance of the Top 4. I think this might be a tricky match for favored Newcastle; Fulham aren't good enough yet to make the Magpies aware this is a big match, but are good enough to take points off of them.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal

What a weekend for derby showdowns! More than that, what a weekend for high-stakes derby showdowns! It feels like everyone, myself included, keeps waiting for Arsenal to stumble in their Premier League title challenge, and yet the Gunners keep just plugging away atop the table. Their North London counterparts are good, and have been good all season, but their fans and pundits alike keep waiting for them to get into a consistent stretch of play and make a real impact in the top 4 race, and that also has not yet happened. If and when Arsenal wins this match, I'll officially allow myself to believe a trophy for them is possible; especially if City don't win the Manchester Derby. But, and call me a doubting Thomas all you want, I'm not going to believe it until I see it. I have to favor Spurs here, at home, and in desperate need of a huge win over their rivals.

The Pick: Tottenham, 2-1