Premier League Predictions, Week 18-19

© Micah Veldkamp, 2024

---

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! And Merry almost Christmas! Yes, we're in the throes of holiday season, which means the fixture list is about to get really wonky, and as such, I'm here to predict two gameweeks in one for the second time in a month.

Christmas festivities prevented me from publishing my Week 17 predictions, unfortunately, but that's probably for the best, given that some chaotic results would have given me a second straight bad week. That's right, last time out, my rapidly increasing prediction form hit an abrupt stop, as the upset bug hit the league. Nottingham beat Aston Villa rather than drawing, and Arsenal and Liverpool settled for draws rather than winning. I finally got on the board with Chelsea's win over Brentford, but that was quickly undone by Manchester City's stunning collapse vs. rivals Manchester United. That's a 1/5 week for me, pulling my season total down to an uglier 35.5/67.

Now, the matches are less than 48 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time having a Blue Christmas. Here are your 8 for Weeks 18 and 19!

Manchester City vs. Everton

Manchester City's brief return to form came to a harsh end with a frustrating draw at Crystal Palace, a comprehensive loss at Juventus in the Champions League, and then last weekend's embarrassing capitulation vs. United. They needed a win in the worst way last weekend, but so too did their hosts Aston Villa, who furthered their misery. Everton, meanwhile, have slowly pieced together several solid results in a row, drawing Chelsea over the weekend to extend their unbeaten streak to 4 matches. Still, City have to win some time, and if a home match vs. Everton isn't the time for their slump to end, maybe it never will.

The Pick: Man City, 3-1

Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Nottingham has arguably surpassed Aston Villa of last year (and this year) and Brighton as the surprise success story of the season; their win at Brentford over the weekend extended their streak to 4 straight wins, and allowed them to remain in 3rd place in the league. Tottenham, meanwhile, continues to be the team that provides the unpredictable, for better and for worse, and last weekend it was for the worse, being steamrolled by league leaders Liverpool 3-6 at home. I think Spurs will improve their form and feel the urgency to get back to winning ways, but Forest is in too good form at the moment for me to expect a home loss from them.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Chelsea vs. Fulham

Chelsea's title-charging form took a minor stumble with the unexpected draw vs. Everton, but a draw is better than a loss, and they still remain the most likely challenger to Liverpool's league lead of anyone. Their Boxing Day opponents Fulham are unbeaten in December, an especially impressive feat when you consider their opponents this month have been Tottenham, Brighton, Arsenal and Liverpool. The Cottagers' uptick in form is for real, but taking points off a generally red-hot Chelsea team at Stamford Bridge might be just too tall of a task.

The Pick: Chelsea, 2-1

Liverpool vs. Leicester City

Liverpool's form had dipped ever-so-slightly with consecutive draws in December, but they burst it back open last week with a quarterfinal win in the League Cup against Southampton and then the explosive win at Tottenham. Now comes what feels like an annual occasion, a Boxing Day visit from Leicester, who have played better in the short tenure of new manager Ruud van Nistelrooy. My Red heart still feels paranoid about picking Liverpool winning in the maelstrom of a title challenge, but Leicester at Anfield is traditionally a fixture that has treated this team very well, even in lesser years with lesser sides.

The Pick: Liverpool, 3-1

West Ham United vs. Liverpool

Liverpool fans, I one of them, will tell you it's weeks like these that scare them the most in a title race; a Chelsea -> RB Leipzig -> Arsenal stretch or a Real Madrid -> Manchester City week is more daunting on paper, but it's the weeks with multiple games against they should beat coming in quick succession, on the road, etc. that have proven to be the bigger traps over the years. Liverpool are unquestionably the better team than struggling West Ham at the moment, by a margin that even the latter's home advantage shouldn't compensate for, but this has 'frustrating and surprising draw' written all over it.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Ipswich Town vs. Chelsea

 

Ipswich Town's road win over fellow relegation-threatened Wolves was a brief oasis of hope in an otherwise pretty dismal stretch of form. The Tractors will now host a team vying to perhaps leapfrog into 1st place before the end of the new year. Minnows Ipswich have punched above their weight in a couple games this season, and may well give Chelsea some fits and starts, but they're yet to spring a major surprise result at home, and I don't think they'll do so in this one.

The Pick: Chelsea, 4-1

Manchester United vs. Newcastle United

 

Next Monday, we get a showdown of two historic clubs that begin each season with big dreams that are currently going in very different directions. Neither side have been the picture of consistency this season, but Newcastle have at least showed an uptick in form, winning 8 of their last 10 in all competitions; a Boxing Day victory over Aston Villa would leapfrog the Magpies into 5th place. Man United, meanwhile, enjoyed a brief glimmer of hope with their stunning rally at City, but went right back to losing ways with a capitulation at home vs. Bournemouth. It's still just the two wins for Ruben Amorim in his young tenure as manager, and while the turnaround may be a long process, it's going to need to begin soon. Because both teams have plenty of talent but are unreliable, I'm gonna lean in favor of the home team who needs a win a lot more badly.

The Pick: Man United, 3-2

Brentford vs. Arsenal

 

The first match of 2025-- and the sole match on New Year's Day this year --pits title challengers and two-time defending runners-up Arsenal against hosts and would-be-Davids Brentford. It's no secret I'm very fond of Thomas Frank, and he has on many occasion in the past gotten his Brentford side up enough to cause big-name visitors all sorts of stress. But Arsenal, while settling for a couple more draws than they would have liked, haven't actually been beaten since the first week of November, and seem to have largely rediscovered their form; I think they will be a little too hot for the Bees to handle this go-round.

The Pick: Arsenal, 4-2