Premier League Predictions, Week 16
© Micah Veldkamp, 2024
Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! It's been a little over a week since you heard from me, yes, but the distance has at least gone down from my 2+ week gap between pieces the last few times. Progress!
After a return to Champions and Europa League action this week, we turn our attention back to English shores, where most teams this weekend are set to play their fourth league match in 2 weeks. If you can't recall last time out, I gave a rare 8-pick slate for Weeks 15 and 16, and it started great!!...then slowly lost the plot.
In the midweek matches last week, I batted .1000, correctly predicting Chelsea's landslide win at Southampton, Manchester City's rebound win vs. Nottingham, Arsenal's big win over Manchester United (down to the correct scoreline), and even Newcastle's thrilling draw with league leaders Liverpool. But last weekend began with one of my predicted matches-- the Merseyside Derby --being called off for inclement weather, and got weirder for me from there, as Arsenal dropped points against Fulham, and Tottenham did not in fact beat Chelsea but rather blew a two-goal lead en route to a home loss. Fortunately, when it seemed my ship was sinking entirely, Leicester and Brighton battled to a 2-2 draw, just as I drew up. Five accurate predictions and two dead-on scorelines gave me a 6/7 week, pulling my season total to a much rosier 34.5/60.
Now, the matches are less than 12 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time celebrating Christmas miracles. Here are your 5 for Week 16!
Arsenal vs. Everton
Everton missed their chance to build on last week's surprising blowout win over Wolverhampton by beating their biggest rivals when Saturday morning's clash vs. Liverpool got called off due to Storm Darragh. Their consolation prize? Going on the road to Arsenal, runners-up in the last two league races! Yeesh. There's a chance Sean Dyche's men's uptick in form is real, and Arsenal certainly struggled again last weekend with Fulham, but I think that draw is the outlier in an otherwise torrid run of form for the Gunners of late. I expect Mikel Arteta and co. to take care of business comprehensively.
The Pick: Arsenal, 3-0
Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa
As it stands, the top of the table reads pretty much as many preseason thought it might, with Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City comprising the Top 4. Just behind them in 5th and 6th place, though, are two teams that have spent a good amount of time amidst that Top 4 this season, and thanks to form-recovering wins last weekend, are both just 2 points outside it. November was harsh on both would-be title spoilers, with the two earning just a total of 7 points from the combined 24 available between them. But both sides have proven managers and a sneakily talented squad, and could do with a win here to keep pace with their European dreams for next season...which is why I sort of expect the odds will be shared at City Ground tomorrow.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Liverpool vs. Fulham
The Derby cancellation meant league leaders Liverpool didn't have a chance to bounce back from their last-minute draw at Newcastle, and yet, the Reds may have won the last Premier League weekend. Their fellow title contenders both returned to dropping points, and rivals Manchester United lost at home as well. Visiting Fulham provided one of the Premier League's more thrilling matches last year, and the Reds have looked a bit off the boil in the last week...but I can't see Liverpool dropping points in successive matches, though I'm sure tomorrow will not be without its scares.
The Pick: Liverpool, 2-1
Chelsea vs. Brentford
For all the talk about Liverpool "winning the weekend," Chelsea didn't fare much worse, if at all. Whilst the league leaders took the day off from playing, and Arsenal and Manchester City were both settling for draws, Chelsea rallied from a two-goal deficit in Tottenham to score a massive 3 points. The Blues have quietly put together an impressive 12-match unbeaten streak, and pulled within 4 pts. of Liverpool in the table. Whether they are bona fide contenders will come down to the team's mental strength, and a match like this would be a great test of that strength. Tricky Brentford could trouble anyone on their day, but I think Enzo Maresca has this London Blue machine humming a little too efficiently at the moment.
The Pick: Chelsea, 4-2
Manchester City vs. Manchester United
This may be the most depressingly high-stakes Manchester Derby in some time. Man United have lived in City's shadow over the last decade-plus, but have at least been in a few title chases with them in that time. That could not be said about this matchup, which features an outrageously talented four-time reigning champion in rare putrid form, looking to notch just their second victory in nearly two months...hosting a once-proud team desperately trying to just stay in the top half of the table, being led by their third manager of the league season, who is still looking for just his second win at the helm. Both these sides are struggling in a big way relative to their standards, and both could do wonders for their season with a win in this one. So with all context even, I'm going to opt for the team that's at home and is, well, frankly just the better team at this point.
The Pick: Man City, 3-1
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