Premier League Predictions, Week 16
Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! This week saw the last European action until February (and today, the first match of the Premier League weekend as Tottenham knocked off Nottingham Forest), but tomorrow and Sunday, all eyes return to England and an enthralling season that's unfolding.
You know what's not enthralling? My poor run of form. After a great start to the season, I've been a bit wobbly the last couple weeks, and this past weekend was no different. Harvey Elliott's late winner rendered my upset pick of Crystal Palace drawing Liverpool incorrect, while the upset that did happen (Bournemouth over Manchester United) took me completely by surprise, as did Aston Villa taking all 3 points off of Arsenal. Fortunately for my reputation, Manchester City and Tottenham pulled out victories and got me a couple wins on the week. My 2/5 performance dropped me to a 37/56 mark on the year.
Now, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time trending downwards. Here are your 5 for Week 16!
Bournemouth vs. Luton Town
The first fixture of Premier League Saturday can't, in good faith, be called "must-watch" football. But it is an intriguing matchup between two relegation candidates who have been playing their record might suggest. Luton Town have, against all odds, now gone toe-to-toe with Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City in the last month, and despite only getting 1 point from 9, have been within minutes of three different shock results. They go on the road now to a Bournemouth side that may be considerably less daunting, but are themselves coming off a massive win at Manchester United. Luton's awat form has been their biggest downfall this season, and for that reason, I'm guessing the Cherries' momentum will win the day.
The Pick: Bournemouth, 3-1
Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace did so many things right against Liverpool last weekend, and then everything fell apart in the last 15 minutes, from a foolish 2nd yellow card to an injury to their starting keeper, and conceding the equalizer and then winner. The Eagles would love to springboard their positive performance into an actual result, but couldn't have asked for a worse follow-up fixture to do that than a road trip to Manchester City. The champions are still far from their best but have gotten a couple crucial, tough wins in the Premier League and Champions League this week, and it's hard not to see them continuing their winning ways.
The Pick: Man City, 3-0
Brentford vs. Aston Villa
If there were any lingering doubts about Aston Villa's legitimacy, surely the Lions have quelled them in the last week, which saw them score 1-0 victories over the reigning champions and then-leaders/reigning runners-up in a span of a few days. Unai Emery's Villa are a force that don't intend to go away any time soon, and sit in a not-so-distant 3rd place as it stands. The next challenge for their staying power, though, is to win the exact kind of match they have on their docket Sunday morning. I am sold on Villa, but not fully sold on 'Villa away from home' yet, and have too much respect for Thomas Frank and Brentford to pick them dropping all 3 points at home.
The Pick: Draw, 2-2
Arsenal vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
Arsenal's joy after their thrilling win at Luton and stay atop the Premier League table was short-lived, as-- like City before them --they fell victim to red-hot Aston Villa. Unlike City, the Gunners could be proud of how they played, and were perhaps unlucky to not come away with a point given the balance of play and an iffy VAR erasure of Kai Havertz's late equalizer. That said, it goes down as a loss all the same, and now they have to try to rediscover form against a tricky Brighton side trying to get back into Top 4 contention. De Zerbi's Gulls have been a tough out for just about everyone the last couple years, and I wouldn't be shocked if they play spoiler yet again, but I expect Arsenal will be refocused and bouyed by their home crowd.
The Pick: Arsenal, 3-2
Liverpool vs. Manchester United
Even when one (or both) is having a subpar year, as has been the case just about every season the last 15 years, there's no match in English football quite like Liverpool-Manchester United. The great Northwest Derby has seen so many classic moments, legendary players, and crucial results over the years, and perpetually has the feel of a fixture where you never really know what's going to happen. And in that vein... Liverpool fans, neutrals, and online pundits alike have laughed at Man United's impending doom at Anfield. It's hard to blame them! Liverpool sit atop the Premier League table, they're playing in their fortress home stadium, and their rivals are days removed from an embarrassing exit from the Champions League. And yet- I can't shake the feeling this match isn't going to go according to the script. For all the memes, criticism, and joke, United haven't been all that bad, just inconsistent (hence why they're only 6 points out of the top 4). Conversely, though they crucially keep grinding out wins, Liverpool haven't played all that well in a while, and I have to imagine the coverage leading up to this fixture and their 7-0 humiliation in the same one last season will fire up United more than usual. I can't really see the Reds losing at home in this one, but I do think it's entirely possible points will be dropped.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
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