Premier League Predictions, Week 11

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! It's been a hellacious week here on American shores, and in the soccer world we're approaching the dreaded international break. So let's enjoy this last Premier League weekend in a while, shall we?

Last week was the sharpest divide between "good" as a fan, and "good" as an official predictor (tm). As a Liverpool fan, everything went about as well as I could have imagined: the Reds beat Brighton in a thriller, title rivals Arsenal, Aston Villa and Manchester City lost, and traditional rivals Manchester United and Everton dropped points. The bad news is, only one of those outcomes went according to how I projected it would. Some small solace was found in the fact that my one correct prediction-- a 1-1 draw between United and Chelsea --was exactly correct, but that was the only accurate aspect of my week. A 1.5/5 outing brings my already shaky season total down 22.5/45. Which if you aren't aware, is dead in the middle, 50%.

Now, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking off, so let's not waste any more time mansplaining mathematics. Here are your 5 for Week 11!

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Manchester City

Going into Anfield and getting points off Liverpool was always going to be a tall order, but letting a halftime lead turn into a loss capped off what has been a frustrating stretch for Brighton, with the week preceding also holding a home draw to listless Wolverhampton and a midweek elimination by Liverpool in the League Cup. Still, anyone who watched their two matches against Liverpool can tell you the Gulls are a good team and a tough out, and they'll be licking their chops at the prospect of welcoming a Manchester City team in a rare patch of bad form. It's been clear since just about the start of the season that City aren't at their dominant best, but after a League Cup elimination by Tottenham, a weekend loss at Bournemouth, and Tuesday's Champions League shellacking by Sporting Lisbon, it's now clear City aren't even a reliable win. A road trip to Brighton cannot be the cure to his team's ills that Pep Guardiola would prefer, and I do think this will be a dogfight similar to the one Liverpool found themselves in last Saturday. But I think they find a way to turn it around; I'll believe City losing 4 straight matches when I see it.

The Pick: Man City, 2-1

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa

Liverpool's great form, coupled with their title-hopeful peers' struggles, have their fans dreaming at the moment. Arne Slot's Reds are more than halfway through the "stretch of death" since the last international break, and still have not lost, dropping points only in a road draw at Arsenal two weeks ago. It wasn't just the fact that they rallied to beat Brighton and blew out Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League a few days later, it was the dominant manner in which they took over the game in the second half, and all while Manchester City, Arsenal and Aston Villa lost. Now, the latter of those comes to Anfield in an attempt to disrupt the good vibes heading into this next international break. Like a couple of their Top 4 peers, Villa's sterling start to the season has hit some turbulence, as a surprising blowout loss to Tottenham and then a shock loss at Club Brugge in the Champions League made it four straight in all competitions without a win. It's tough to feel too confident either way about how tomorrow will go. Liverpool are unquestionably favored; they are at home and frankly, are in too good of form right now for me to predict a loss. But try as I might, I just can't see Villa dropping a third straight loss in a one week span.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Manchester United vs. Leicester City

Sunday morning's clash between the 13th and 15th-placed teams may not have a lot of significance for the standings, but it's significant for Manchester United in that it's the last match of a transitional period. New manager Ruben Amorim will arrive after the upcoming international break, and so this will be one last match under caretaker manager Ruud van Nistelrooy, and it comes against the team they beat in his first match in charge. You wouldn't be faulted for legitimately trusting Leicester's quality more than United's at this point, but I expect a raucous Old Trafford to see off a club legend in his short time as manager, and the truth is they've looked a different team in this short stint. Given that the van Nistelrooy mini-era began with a 6-2 win against Leicester, I have to imagine it will close with a win over the Foxes as well.

The Pick: Man United, 3-1

Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle United

Somewhat buried in the stories from the carnage of last weekend was the fact that Nottingham Forest, of all teams, had ascended to 3rd place in the league. It's early yet, of course, but Nuno Espirito Santo is doing commendable work in Nottingham, as his Reds were unbeaten in the month of October and have now won four on the bounce. A visit from Newcastle on Sunday will be a tremendous challenge; the Magpies have in recent weeks finally started to resemble the team the Top 4 team they were two seasons ago, with wins over Chelsea and Arsenal to celebrate. But, crazy as it may sound, I think Forest have proven to be the more reliable side thus far this season, and I like Santo more than Eddie Howe in a tactical battle. It will be a close one, but the home crowd lifts Nottingham to narrow victory.

The Pick: Nottingham, 1-0

Chelsea vs. Arsenal

This season's first edition of a famous London Derby will see its highest stakes and level of anticipation in quite some time. For many years, amidst multiple Chelsea title charges, it was Arsenal stuck mired in mediocrity. But the fortunes flipped wildly the last two seasons, the Gunners suddenly finding themselves in heated title races with Man City and Chelsea downright bad for the better parts of 2022-2024. Currently, though, the two teams sit at 4th and 5th places in the league, level on 18 points; Enzo Maresca has the Blues playing better than expected this season, and a besotted Arsenal slightly more off the pace to start the year than expected. This clash feels like it has the potential to be a point of diverging paths for the two respective seasons should there be a comprehensive winner. Chelsea have dropped 5 points from winnable positions in the last few weeks, and you know that will chuff at them, but their 8-0 win in the Europa League yesterday showed they're still very potent indeed. Yet, these are dangerous times for Arsenal, and I think Mikel Arteta and co. know it. I don't expect them to come away from Stamford Bridge with nothing.