Premier League Predictions, Week 11

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! If you're still coming off the high of yet another Champions League week that included Liverpool's attack shredding the opposition and Cristiano Ronaldo singlehandedly bailing out Manchester United, you'd be forgiven. But look alive, because we're back for one more Premier League weekend before we head into an international break!

Last time out, I had perhaps my most bizarre week yet this season. Over the 5 matches I predicted, I was either very right or very wrong. I vastly underestimated Arsenal and Brighton, and overestimated Crystal Palace's upset potential of Manchester City yet again, and paid the price dearly for those. However, not only did I get Chelsea and Manchester United's victories correct, my analysis ended up being pretty much dead on, and I was one less United goal away from getting both scorelines dead on as well. Those matches salvaged a mediocre 2.5/5 week, which brings my season total to a mediocre 27/45.

But, the matches are less than 24 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste time being a mediocre white male. Here are your 5 for Week 11!

Manchester United vs. Manchester City

Since the debacle against Liverpool, Manchester United have continued their topsy-turvy ways. In terms of results, to be fair, it’s been mostly topsy; they rebounded nicely with a comprehensive win over Tottenham, then secured a draw on the road at Atalanta to maintain 1st place in their Champions League group. But given that said draw saw them trailing for the vast majority of the match and again relying on Ronaldo heroics for a result, that feeling of “feast or famine” hasn’t really gone away. But while we’re at it, let’s not act like their crosstown rivals have been the most consistent bunch either; it seems like every time I’m back to believing Manchester City is the best team in the world, they drop another match, often in befuddling fashion. Such was the case last weekend, as they imploded against what should have been a completely overmatched Crystal Palace side, losing 2-0 with 10 men on the pitch. So who wins this massive Manchester derby, between two supremely talented but unreliable sides? One thing I can confidently say is that United will not capitulate the way they did against Liverpool; I truly believe they’ll be ready to be sharper for their embattled manager and not humiliate themselves in front of their home crowd in front of a rival again. That said, you can’t really count on them in these big matches, can you? And the fact of the matter is City, in the thick of what is likely to be an epic title race, arguably needs this win more than United does after their shock loss last week. So, though I expect a better performance from the Red Devils than what we saw last time at Old Trafford, I think they’ll come up short again.

The Pick: Man City, 2-1

Chelsea vs. Burnley

League leaders Chelsea just keep quietly plugging way, while the high-octane, goal-scoring attack of Liverpool, and the wildly vacillating form of the Manchester teams and Tottenham hog the headlines. The Blues, who have won four straight matches by a total score of 14-1 since their loss to Manchester City, won't mind the lack of attention whatsoever; they're happy to just keep winning games and taking three crucial points. That trend likely won't change this weekend. A matchup against Burnley is unlikely to hog headlines, and even though the Clarets suddenly found their shooting boots in a surprising blowout victory over Brentford, they're unlikely to pose the same threat to a vaunted Chelsea back line.

The Pick: Chelsea, 3-0

Everton vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Everton and Tottenham would be intriguing matchup of "next tier" teams anyhow, but this particular clash has a 'must-win' element, as both teams have lost their last two matches (and in fact Everton is winless in their last four). Oh, and there's the small matter of this being Antonio Conte's Premier League debut with Spurs. Look, I think Tottenham rushing Nuno Espirito Santo out the door after 2 months was ridiculous, especially when a. they're not even performing badly on the table, and b. their uneven results can be more attributed to their star forward being an underperforming sourpuss. That said, Conte is in my opinion the best manager in the World not named Jürgen or Pep, so I kinda get it. Conte's actual debut as manager was wild; Tottenham's Europe League win over Vitesse saw an epic near-collapse with 5 total goals and 3 total red cards. Don't be shocked to see similar fireworks this weekend between two unpredictable teams oozing attacking talent. Even with their recent dip in form, though, I find Everton the more reliable of the two sides; I do think the new manager bump will take effect for Tottenham under Conte, I just don't expect it to happen right away.

The Pick: Everton, 3-2

Arsenal vs. Watford

Raise your hand if you knew Arsenal were tied for 5th place? It seems like just yesterday that the Gunners were a punchline for all other fanbases in the league and yet, while everyone has written them off, they've quietly rattled off a nine-match unbeaten streak, culminating in a 2-0 upset last week at Leicester. Said streak has seen them draw level on points with Manchester United, and though they're technically behind on goal differential, let's be honest, would you rather be an Arsenal fan or a United fan right now? Yes, their schedule has eased up considerably since their brutal opening three-match stretch, but Arsenal's uptick in form is no fluke. They are forging a real identity under Mikel Arteta and it's on the back of their young players and new signings, such as Aaron Ramsdale. Don't tempt fate, I suppose, but it's hard for me to picture Watford being the side that ends their unbeaten run. The Hornets haven't looked nearly as dangerous against more talented sides than previous iterations of themselves in the league. I'm sticking with the hot hand here.

The Pick: Arsenal, 3-0

West Ham United vs. Liverpool

The Manchester derby early on Saturday and this match on Sunday afternoon nicely bookend the Premier League weekend with two massive Top 5 clashes. This matchup is sure to get less attention than the former, but it actually might be both better in quality and higher-stakes in contest. A Top 4 clash between two red hot teams-- Liverpool is yet to lose a match this season, and West Ham has won 10 of their last 11 in all competitions --promises end-to-end entertainment, as their last several head-to-heads have. West Ham won't just be buoyed by their good Premier League performances of late, nor by home fans, but by their recent League Cup win over Manchester City. Sure, it's just the League Cup, but it's taking the three-time defending champions and one of the best teams in the World head-on and beating them; that's enough to remove a team's fear of anyone. Liverpool, meanwhile, rebounded nicely from their disappointing match last Saturday with a controlled win over Atlético Madrid in the midweek to secure first place in the Champions League Group of Death. Liverpool will be pegged to win, to be sure, but it's one that could go either way, and that's where I've struggled to pick them all season. My skepticism about them against fellow title contenders was justified with their draws against Chelsea and Manchester City, and my confidence in them over mid-to-low table teams has been rewarded numerous times. But there have been two occasions in which I've thought, "This team is an underdog, but has been good enough to take points off Liverpool," and ended up predicting a Liverpool win anyhow. Those occasions were matches at Brentford and vs. Brighton, which both ended in draws after Liverpool looked to have the match sealed up multiple times. If I had to guess, I'd predict a similar deal transpiring on Sunday.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2