Premier League Predictions, Week 11

Welcome back to your Premier League predictions! Stateside, we celebrated Thanksgiving last week, and in Europe, leagues everywhere recognized the holiday by threatening to spread an illness to thousands by flying their players all over Europe in the midst of a pandemic!

Cynicism aside, it was nice to have Champions League action to again tide us over to a Premier League weekend, even it means more fixture pileup in what is already normally the busiest month of the year. One thing it is NOT nice to have is an exact .500 record on my Premier League predictions 10 weeks into the season, but friends, that's exactly where I'm at. My awful record continued for the 7th consecutive week, as Liverpool again had 3 points robbed of them by VAR, Chelsea held Tottenham to a draw, and Everton and Leeds boffed it against Leeds and Fulham, respectively. My only saving grace was getting the Manchester United victory and scoreline over Southampton exactly right. Yayyyy. My 1.5 for 5 mark on the week brings my season total to 22.5/45. That is ugly.

But, the matches are just 12 hours away from kicking off, so let's not waste any more time weeping and gnashing our teeth. Here are your 5 for Week 11!

West Ham United vs. Manchester United

With over half of Manchester United's match on Sunday played, things looked extremely dire. Southampton led the Red Devils 2-0, and the latter were staring at slipping into 16th place. Then, one Bruno Fernandes goal and a late Edinson Cavani brace later, they had stunned the Saints and launched themselves into the top of the Premier League table, just two points out of the Top 4. Funny how fast things can change. West Ham knows that feeling, too; all of a sudden they're knocking on the door of Champions League qualification after a dreadful start to the season. This is thanks in no small part to navigating a brutal run of Leicester-Tottenham-Man City-Liverpool deftly, dropping only one loss in that stretch, a close and competitive 1-2 at Anfield. So who wins this matchup of sudden upstarts? I've definitely struggled to get a grasp on both these teams this season, and nothing would surprise me any more, but my gut tells me this is the kind of match I expect Manchester United to win, see they're losing and get all excited, only to watch them get a late equalizer, probably via penalty kick.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Chelsea vs. Leeds United

Chelsea will feel as if they made a meal out of their chance to make a Premier League title push in a sloppy, listless draw vs. Tottenham last weekend. But a draw is not a bad result, when all's said and done, and they'll likely feel buoyed by a dominant Champions League performance this week. Their opponents Leeds have been a bit of an enigma this season; the Peacocks entered the season with a lot of hype thanks to manager Marcelo Bielsa, and early on, appeared to be acquitting themselves quite nicely. Then came a stretch of winning just 1 of their next 5. Yet, just when I was ready to write them off as a top-half team, they came out last week and upset Everton, at Goodison Park, no less. One thing that has been pretty consistent over the last two months for Leeds however is that, win or lose, they're simply not belting in goals the way they were in the early weeks of the season. And that spells trouble against a Chelsea back line that looks completely reformed in a post-Chilwell-and-Mendy world.

The Pick: Chelsea, 2-0

Sheffield United vs. Leicester City

This whole season it's felt like Leicester City has leapt three steps forward, only to then take two steps back. When they exploded out of the gates to take the lead atop the table and demolish Manchester City at the Etihad, they promptly lost their next two matches to West Ham and Aston Villa. After rebounding with a gritty win over Arsenal and a dominant win over Leeds, they were obliterated by Liverpool then last week embarrassed in a 1-2 loss at home against Fulham. So, should they beat a cellar-dwelling Sheffield United side that's been downright awful this season? Absolutely. Will they? I'll say yes, but am bracing myself to get it wrong.

The Pick: Leicester City, 2-1

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal

Despite the festive season, I wouldn't fault Arsenal fans for feeling peak Scrooge heading into this edition of the North London Derby. It's already been a brutal year in the World, and now this famed rivalry match will be played in a mostly empty stadium, and it's not even their stadium. Oh right, and there's the fact that their own team's season seems to be spiralling out of control, while Tottenham sits smugly at the top of the Premier League table. Still, there are reasons for optimism; despite the polar opposite season trajectories, the talent gap really isn't that large. Mikel Arteta's no Jose Mourinho, but he is also familiar with this particular match and its demands. All this being said, I've held out hope for Arsenal for too long this season, only to get burnt time and time again. I've made the opposite mistake in under-estimating Mourinho's Tottenham time and time again. Not doing that this week.

The Pick: Tottenham, 2-0

Liverpool vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

These two sides tend to put on a cracker when they get together, and it's no surprise. Wolves are yet another example of a smaller club who fully embraces flee-flowing football, and it's evident how much that is appreciated by football purist Jürgen Klopp, who is always full of praise for Wolverhampton manager Nuno Espírito Santo. It's also evident by him snagging their forward Diogo Jota, who has become one of the best scorers in the league in just two months with Liverpool. It's a shame that the promise of such a high-quality match carries the imminent doom of awful officiating. After yet another series of farcical VAR decisions last weekend, the Reds' are batting a shocking 1/10 on the season for "favorable" VAR outcomes, the sole favorable outcome being a red card for Chelsea's Andreas Christensen that was obviously warranted. Though Wolves consistently punch above their weight, I have every reason to believe Liverpool won't drop points two matches in a row, especially not in front of some fans in Anfield for the first time in nearly 9 months. Yet I can't bring myself to predict it, because I know a stoppage time penalty will be given to Wolves after Joel Matip nicks a lock of Adama Traore's hair, and a 97th-minute thunderstrike by Fabinho will be nullified when VAR shows Sadio Mané's left heel was offsides and blocking the view of the keeper.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2