College Football COVID-20: A Preview Unlike Any Other
We're so close, y'all. We've spent months wondering whether we'd ever get to this moment. We've gone through multiple re-evaluations. We've seen massive re-alignment of schedules. And we've gotten the news that some major universities won't be joining us for the ride.
But finally, this week, college football comes back. Yes, I know games have technically started, but no matter how much half-hearted promotion ESPN tries to push on us, you and I both know that Central Arkansas beating Austin Peay in front of 2000 fans doesn't count as the start of College Football.
It's going to be a season unlike any other....and that's assuming the season even happens. For the Big Ten, Pac-12, Mountain West, and MAC, there will be no football this Fall. For all other conferences that are playing, there will be emptiness in stadiums, with fan attendance ranging from 0% to 20%, depending on the state. Marquee non-conference games, and perhaps most bowl games, are a thing of the past when it comes to the 2020 season. Sidelines will be spaced apart, and players will be wearing a special-protective helmet. Oh, and we would do well to remember that one week full of positive COVID-19 tests could spell the end of the season.
But hey, at least this weekend, we get football. So working on the assumption that the season does in fact happen all the way, through, here's a look at who you can expect to be contenders. We'll go conference-by-conference:
ACC
The Favorite:
Clemson
The Challenger:
Notre Dame
The Dark Horse:
North Carolina
Clemson isn't just the team to beat in the ACC. They're the team to beat in the nation. When you’ve played in four of the last five Championships, winning two, that’s not too surprising. The Tigers were bested in last year’s national championship by arguably the best team in modern college football history, but their title game demolition of Alabama the year before that, as well as the latter’s failure to even make the playoff last year are good indications that Clemson are the premier program in college football at the moment. But they’re not just the preseason #1 based on historical accomplishment. They’re returning NFL-caliber players across the field, including arguably the best quarterback AND running back in college football, and joining them is the # recruiting class.
That said, Clemson’s inevitable path to ACC domination did get more difficult with the schedule realignment, which saw Notre Dame thrown into the conference on a one-year basis. The Irish were already slated to host the Tigers this season, but what was a must-watch non-conference affair now has the potential to be the ACC regular season title, as Notre Dame returns a star quarterback and almost the entire offensive line from a team that has gone 23-3 in the last two seasons. My beloved Tar Heels are also capable of making for a fun 2020 ACC season. Though Carolina is less than two years removed from finishing 2-9 and firing their head coach, they finished last season with a winning record, solidified an impressive recruiting class, and return one of the best quarterbacks and one of the best linebackers in the country, along with a pair each of 1000-yard rushers and receivers.
I want to go full-in on the optimistic hype train and project the Heels to crash the party, especially because they avoid Clemson in the regular season. But I think the best bet in the ACC based on precedent rather than potential is still Clemson and Notre Dame, and it'd be professional suicide to expect anyone but Clemson taking the crown. My one "bold" prediction is that Clemson will not enter the College Football Playoff as the #1 overall seed; I can't decide if I think someone (like ND) upsets them, or if the committee's just going to decide that they're more impressed with the SEC champion's body of work, but it will be at least one of the two.
The Picks:
Clemson over Notre Dame in the ACC Championship
Clemson to Playoff, Notre Dame and North Carolina to New Year's Six Bowls
Big XII
The Favorite:
Oklahoma
The Challenger:
Texas
The Dark Horse:
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma, like Clemson in the ACC and Alabama in the SEC, have reached a point where they almost certainly deserve to be the de facto favorite in the Big 12. They’re the five-time defending champions of the conference, produced Heisman winners in two of the last 3 years, and have reached the national semifinals in three consecutive years.
So, there's no problem with Oklahoma being the favorite by default. But their clutch on the Big XII does not appear as daunting as it was in years past. While Spencer Rattler very well might be the latest prodigy at QB for Oklahoma, he's coming in as a Freshman, something new for Lincoln Riley, who is used to experienced transfer QBs. More importantly, though, there are some legitimate-looking contenders in the conference this year. Texas has been waiting for their resurgence since Tom Herman took over as coach, and this might finally be their time. Sure, that may sound like a familiar refrain, but last year notwithstanding, it’s true that Texas is on a clear upward trajectory, and having star QB Sam Ehlinger back for his Senior season is huge. Meanwhile, the team with the most returning proven talent is arguably neither of the two conference titans. Oklahoma State, who finished with 9 wins last season, return one of the best offensive players in the country in RB Chuba Hubbard. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they also return head coach Mike Gundy whose asinine comments amidst both the COVID quarantine days and social justice protests led to unwanted offseason drama.
Oklahoma State is good enough to make the NY6 regardless, but it will be curious to see whether those trust issues with their coach prevent them from reaching the conference title. I expect it might. So, as it often does, I think it will come down to the Red River Rivalry to decide the Big XII conference. I expect the loser of the regular-season game to get revenge in the championship; when in doubt, bank on that champion being Oklahoma.
The Picks:
Oklahoma over Texas in the Big XII Championship
Oklahoma to the Playoff; Texas and Oklahoma State to New Year's Six Bowls
SEC
The Favorite:
Alabama
The Challenger:
Georgia
The Dark Horse:
Florida
After a rare “down” season, Alabama’s back to their familiar spot of preseason SEC favorites. To be clear, most programs in America would kill for a 10-2 season capped off with a dominant major bowl victory. But most programs aren’t Alabama, coached by Nick Saban. 2019 was their first season outside the playoff since its inception, and 10 was the lowest amount of wins since their 9-3 season in 2011. But! They’re back in the forefront of everyone’s minds heading into the 2020 season, thanks in no small part to the return of studs like Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Patrick Surtain II.
But if we’re being honest, one of the reasons Alabama is back to being the de facto favorite is that defending champions LSU, fresh off perhaps the greatest season in the modern era, suffered a massive personnel loss, not the least of which was Heisman winner Joe Burrow. Most preseason projections are optimistic that the Tigers still have enough firepower to contend in the SEC this year (hence the preseason #6 ranking), but I am inclined to think they’ll take a big step back. I’m much more high on the Alabama-defeating chances of perennial East winner Georgia, or their rivals Florida, who have steadily been knocking on the door of contention.
I wish I had the bravery to pick anyone but Alabama winning the SEC, but it’s gotta be the Crimson Tide. I’m not sold on Florida’s depth being good enough to overcome Alabama’s, and I’ve seen Georgia collapse against them too many times. I do expect the Dawgs to get a narrow win over Florida, yet again, and thus the SEC East, yet again. But where most pundits have projected Georgia to be a second team into the playoff from the SEC, I think that honor might fall to the archrival Gators. I bet both finish 9-1, but when the playoff committee weighs a Georgia team that just got smoked in the SEC Championship against a Florida team that has only the one narrow loss, they’ll give the latter a try.
The Picks:
Alabama over Georgia in the SEC Championship
Alabama and Florida to the Playoff; Georgia and Auburn to New Year's Six Bowls
Group of Five
The Favorite:
Cincinnati
The Challenger:
Central Florida
The Dark Horse:
Appalachian State
If ever there were a year for a Group of Five team to crash the playoff party, this may be it. The Big Ten and PAC-12 won’t be in contention, and with reduced fans a likelihood, the committee will have less dollar signs in their decision-making, which would indicate more openness to one of the little guys making it in. So who among those little guys is favored to take up the charge? Most fingers point to Cincinnati, who came within 5 points of winning the loaded AAC last season before ultimately falling to Memphis. The Bearcats do return key players, especially on defense, from their 11-win, Birmingham Bowl-winning team. But they’ll face stiff competition in their conference yet again, especially from 2017 national champions UCF! The Golden Knights, the Alabama of the Group of Five, return a vaunted offense, fronted by one of the nation’s best young quarterbacks in Dillon Gabriel.
And don’t forget about the other guys! Even without the likes of Boise State and San Diego State taking part this year, there are Group of Five contenders to be found in non-AAC contenders. Foremost among these would be two-time defending Sun Belt champions Appalachian State. The Mountaineers were in the New Year’s Six discussion last year until a late upset, and very well could be there again thanks to a Sun Belt-only schedule.
In the end, I do think it’s Cincy who will avenge their narrow defeat from last year and claim the AAC crown. In past years, that’s been the ticket to claiming the New Year’s Six spot, but given how few teams are playing this season, we might see multiple Group of Five teams in the major bowls, especially if at least one can pull off an unbeaten season..
The Picks:
Cincinnati over UCF in the American Championship, Western Kentucky over UAB in the Conference-USA Championship, Appalachian State over Arkansas State in the Sun Belt Championship
Cincinnati and Appalachian State to New Year's Six Bowls
Preseason "New Year's Six" Predictions
ROSE BOWL SEMIFINAL
SUGAR BOWL SEMIFINAL
Peach Bowl
North Carolina (9-2) vs. Appalachian State (12-0)
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma State (9-2) vs. Cincinnati (11-1)
Cotton Bowl
Texas (9-2) vs. Auburn (8-2)
Orange Bowl
Notre Dame (9-2) vs. Georgia (9-2)
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