College Basketball Couch Power 10 (Feb. 21st)
Kansas looked headed for a season sweep at the hands of fellow recent Big 12 and national title winners Baylor, but a massive 2nd half saw them instead earn yet another win over a top team
Welcome back to the Couch Power 10, you college basketball fans! Believe it or not, we're inching ever close to the finish line. This is the third-to-last time you'll hear from me before conference tournament play begins, which is the clearest signpost that the world's greatest postseason is nigh.
As we hurtle towards toward the end of the regular season-- yes, the choice of the word was "hurtle" was deliberate. Did you really think the madness of this season would die down? It's almost March, you fools! --the upsets and major results have not stopped coming. On the night of our last Power 10, as I hit "publish," Providence finally edged Creighton in double overtime, and Syracuse dusted off an upset of North Carolina State. From there, 11 more ranked teams would drop decisions over the course of the week, nearly half of them to unranked opponents. This included the likes of Purdue and Tennessee once again getting blown out by an underdog not in the Top 25, and doesn't even include the multiple near-misses, such as Texas' and Indiana's narrow escapes from regional rivals Oklahoma and Illinois, respectively.
I've said it before, I'll say it again: it's been a wild and unpredictable season. Despite this, I’ll try my hand at ranking the top teams based on what they’ve done to date:
1. Houston
In a week where just about every other top team dropped a game, Houston just kept winning. Comfortable victories over SMU and Memphis pushed their winning streak to 7, and the latter gave them their first win over a likely tournament team since December. That fact certainly might explain why ESPN still has the 25-2 Cougars as only #4 in 'strength of record,' but look, when you own a win over likely ACC champions Virginia, and your sole losses are by 5 total points to a bubble team and likely SEC champions Alabama, there's not much to nitpick here.
2. Kansas
Turns out that 3-game slide last month was not a foreboding sign for Kansas after all. Since then, the defending champions have won 7 of their last 8, including the last 5 in a row, and have firmly re-established themselves as one of, if not THE elite team in the country. The Jayhawks followed up their demolition of the Sooner State with back-to-back victories over ranked opponents in Baylor and TCU. The latter last night was a tough win on the road, but the former was even more impressive; the 2022 national champs trailed the 2021 champs by as much as 17 late in the first half, before blowing their doors off in the second, en route to a 16-point win.
3. Alabama
The Crimson Tide slip from our #1 spot after losing the much-anticipated showdown at Tennessee. There's not much shame in losing to this Tennessee team in Knoxville, and Bama recovered nicely to railroad Georgia by 50 points, but it still feels like they missed an opportunity to really secure the SEC title and stake their claim as a top seed. Much more seriously, though, the story that broke today about star player Brandon Miller's involvement in a fatal shooting last fall, as well as coach Nate Oats' "nothing to see here" non-response, has the potential to derail this season.
4. Arizona
The Pac-12 continues to be the source of my only major disagreement with voters in the major polls. Namely, that I appear to be considerably higher on Arizona than both the AP and Coaches are. I understand the hesitation on this team; they have had an extreme Jekyll and Hyde act going, with all 4 losses to teams that quite likely will not make the tournament counteracting their 5-0 record against ranked teams this season. However, considering March Madness is going to almost exclusively have the kind of teams that fall into the category of "quality opponents," I'm leaning towards the more optimistic (the... Jekyll?) side of the Wildcats.
5. UCLA
And at the same time, I remain more bearish on UCLA than voters do, although they do move up a couple spots for me from last week, thanks to two comfortable wins over Cal and Oregon, and losses by other Top 10 sides. I still think the Bruins have the highest ceiling of just about anyone in the country, and they don't have a bad loss on their resume. But until they score a true quality win (they're 0-2 against their only opponents currently ranked), I won't be convinced they're a contender in March.
6. Texas
Despite their 6 losses, and two-spot slide in the most recent polls, the Longhorns still clock in with a Top 5 strength of record, according to ESPN. This is thanks in no small part to their 12th-ranked schedule strength and 11 (!!) quality wins on the year. They have a chance to get another one of those quality wins tonight at home against Iowa State, after avoiding disaster against rivals Oklahoma on Saturday.
7. Purdue
I dropped Purdue much more this week than the two major polls did, and I actually applaud the voters for not being overly reactive, and viewing the Boilermakers' season as a whole, rather than by their recent trend. That said, anyone with an ounce of investment in Purdue has to be concerned with their 3 losses in 4 games, and even more so by the fact that all 3 losses were comprehensive defeats, and 2 of the 3 were to unranked opponents. They did get back on the horse in a major way Sunday, beating the brakes off Ohio State. But to date, the only wins to write home about all occurred back in November, during their 4-game stretch of Marquette -> West Virginia -> Gonzaga -> Duke, and half of those wins have depreciated in value since then. No reason Purdue can't still be a major player in the postseason, but they need a very, very good showing the rest of the way to maintain their hopes of a top seed.
8. Virginia
Two things remained true about Virginia this past week: 1. not once have they impressed me this season, but 2. they just keep pulling out games. Their 2-0 week this week consisted of beating the two worst ACC teams by a combined 5 points, but you know what? Just win, baby. The Cavs remain in sole first place in the ACC, free of any damning losses on their resume, and owners of ever-appreciating wins over Baylor, NC State, and Illinois. That'll play.
9. Miami
The AP poll and ESPN's Strength of Record rating stay sleeping on Miami, as both have the Hurricanes at #13. This won't shock you to hear, given what I stated about Virginia above, but I continue to believe the Canes are the toast of the ACC. This past week, in which they swept bubble teams Wake Forest and Virginia Tech with relative ease to extend their winning streak to 7, did little to dissuade me. Wins over Virginia, Providence and NC State may not be the flashiest 'quality wins,' but they're solid, and apart from an inexplicable road loss to Georgia Tech in their first ACC game, they also have no 'bad losses' to ding their tournament credentials.
10. Gonzaga
For the second consecutive season, Gonzaga have found it somewhat tough to live up to lofty preseason expectations, but they may be rounding into form right as other teams start dropping more and more Ls, having lost only twice (both to conference opponents) since November. This past week, they avenged one of those losses by destroying Loyola Marymount by 43, and on Saturday will have the chance to avenge the other when # 15 Saint Mary's comes to town. For a very talented team with a solid resume that is lacking a signature win (marquee games against Texas, Purdue and Baylor all resulted in narrow losses), Saturday is a prime opportunity to take a serious step forward in tournament seeding.
Just missed: Baylor, Xavier, Marquette, Tennessee, San Diego State, UNC athletics from March-October 2022
BONUS!
Couch Regional Projections
SOUTH (Louisville):
1. Houston
2. Virginia
3. Xavier
4. Tennessee
MIDWEST (Kansas City):
1. Kansas
2. UCLA
3. Baylor
4. Marquette
EAST (New York City):
1. Alabama
2. Purdue
3. Miami
4. Connecticut
WEST (Las Vegas):
1. Arizona
2. Texas
3. Gonzaga
4. San Diego State
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