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Champions League Predictions: Semifinals, Leg 2


It's that time again, folks. We're in the penultimate week of the club season, which means we're close to finding out not just who will take top honors in each of Europe's top leagues, but also who will be crowned the kings of Europe overall. The second leg of the semifinal stage kicks off tomorrow, and in a mere 48 hours from now, we'll know who will be headed to Istanbul to compete in June's Champions League Final.


The first leg of the semifinal stage played out just about exactly how many thought it might: Manchester City and Real Madrid fought an epic duel, while Inter Milan easily beat their out-of-form crosstown rivals. It did not, however, play out the way I thought it would! If Rafael Leão's game-time injury announcement rendered my trendy Milan upset pick dire at kickoff, it was essentially doomed just 12 minutes in, as quick goals by veterans Edin Džeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan all but sealed Inter Milan's 2-0 victory right away. And perhaps equally gutsy call that Man City would roll out of a Madrid with a win seemed to be prescient in an opening half hour that was completely dominated by the visitors, but then Vinicius' thunderblast out of nowhere gave the reigning champs the lead, and although Kevin De Bruyne was able to equalize with a superstrike of his own in the 2nd half, some heroics by Thibaut Courtois ensured City would make out with no more than a draw.


I'm now 3-7 in my predictions since the start of the quarterfinal stage, and am on a remarkable 6-game slump currently. Here's to finishing strong!


To this week's slate of games:

Inter Milan vs. A.C. Milan

Despite a tournament run that yielded memories of their glory days, the Rossoneri's dream of playing in their first Champions League Final in 16 years seems to be all but over, after a first leg that was wholly dominated by their intra-city rivals. As shellshocked as they were to begin Wednesday's match, Milan were much better in the last half hour or so, but still not quite good enough to get a crucial goal that would have drastically changed the circumstances of this next match. Star winger Rafael Leão should be back in the lineup, but that's about the only good news for Milan, whose bad form now also seems to have taken them out of Top 4 contention in Serie A. Even though this fixture is in the same stadium as last week, the loyal red and black support of the now-'away team' will be swapped out for a 75%-25% fan advantage for the Nerrazzuri, and it's just hard to see this hobbling, limping Milan side overcoming that deficit. Internazionale calmly controls proceedings and books a trip to Istanbul, their first Final appearance since winning it in 2010.

The Pick: Inter Milan, 1-0 (Inter Milan advance on 3-0 aggregate)



Manchester City vs. Real Madrid


As discussed at the outset, while many surely foresaw the kind of classic, high-energy, high-quality draw we saw in Leg 1, I actually didn't. I really thought this was going to be Man City's year to run away with the title, and in truth they're playing so much better domestically than Real is at the moment, and in my head that would translate to winning Leg 1. But I also figured if I was to be wrong, it would be because I had again underestimated Real's prowess in this tournament and they would seal a comfortable win and place one foot in the Final. Instead, we return to Manchester this week with honors even, and I have no clue what to expect from Wednesday's match. I think this could be a cracker of a last semifinal match, because both teams likely feel like they should have made out with a win in Madrid, and as such, will play much less cautious and respectful than they did in the first leg. I think it's entirely possible Madrid do the damn thing again: City were so comprehensively better to start the match last Tuesday, and yet it was Los Blancos who entered halftime with the lead, and who, at the end of the 90 minutes, probably felt more so like they should have won. They're just so good at hanging in matches and striking when you least expect it, and so bad at knowing when they're beat. But, I can't shake the feeling that with the revenge angle on their side, and especially with the fact that the kings of pulling rabbits out of their hats will be forced to do it on the road this time (all of their wild 2nd leg victories in last year's title run came at home), this is the year Pep Guardiola and City finally get the job done.

The Pick: Manchester City, 3-1 (Manchester City advance on 4-2 aggregate)



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