Champions League Predictions: Semifinals, Leg 1

It's now May, which indicates we're reaching the home stretch of the club football season. Case in point: we're back at Champions League action this week, with the semifinals kicking off tomorrow. And you know what that means! In less than 24 hours, we get to experience some more terrific, pulsating football, and more importantly, the greatest anthem in the world!

From a predictions standpoint, I had a nightmarish week last time out. While I ultimately correctly predicted three of the four semifinalists, that feat looks a whole lot less impressive when you realize those three ties were essentially over after the first leg. My one inaccuracy was that recently crowned Serie A champions Napoli would score a comeback victory and progress to the semifinals, and that was just one of four misses in the 2nd leg of the quarterfinal stage. That's right, I pitched an 0-fer last time out: Napoli didn't win, but drew. Same went for Manchester City and Inter Milan. Real Madrid, conversely, did not draw, but rather win. Here's to better luck in the semifinal stage!

Now, to this week's slate of games:

Real Madrid vs. Manchester City

The first match of the semifinal stage is a rematch of last year's first semifinal. It was, in case you can't remember, a wild affair. The first leg was seemingly controlled by Manchester City at home, but they just couldn't stop Real Madrid from poking goals out of nowhere, settling for a deceptively slim 4-3 win. That preceded a 2nd leg wherein Riyad Mahrez's late goal gave City a 99% chance of advancing, according to FiveThiryEight's live statistics, only for Rodrygo to score two goals within 80 seconds of each other in stoppage time, and Karim Benzema to slot home a penalty in extra time to complete the stunning comeback over the shellshocked Mancurians. Although the two sides and their respective seasons are very different in 2023 than they were in 2022, it's hard not to see this tie and start salivating at the prospect of similar fireworks this go-round. Manchester City had an uneven start to the season, but are in red-hot form, unbeaten in all competitions for the last 3 months, and suddenly in serious contention for a treble, as they play in the FA Cup Final next weekend and have surged to the top of the Premier League. Real Madrid are almost surely going to come up short in La Liga this year, but just clinched one domestic trophy with their Copa del Rey triumph on Sunday, and have been their usual impenetrable selves in the Champions League, with 8 wins, 1 draw and just 1 loss in their 10 matches in the competition. I go back and forth on this; on the one hand, City so clearly seem like the better team right now, and surely they won't stumble at this same stage, to this same team. On the other hand, just about every single year under Pep Guardiola I've expected them to win this trophy, and yet every single year, they find new, exciting ways to not do so. Real Madrid also just always. find. a way. in this tournament. I have no idea what to expect from the tie as a whole, but in this first leg alone, I'm going to guess that the lack of Luka Modrić for Real and the addition of Erling Haaland to last year's City squad will be the difference.

The Pick: Manchester City, 3-2

A.C. Milan vs. Inter Milan

For just the second time in history, we get a Derby di Milano in the Champions League, and just like in 2003, the only other instance, it comes in the semifinals. Given the amount of history in this rivalry and among these two clubs, it's amazing that this particular matchup hasn't happened more often. But what's even more amazing is that this is the year it's happening. It has shades of UNC-Duke meeting in the Final Four for the first time last season, when one was an 8-seed and the other a 2-seed, neither side having won any trophies on the season. As discussed in the intro, Italy's domestic league was wholly dominated by Napoli this season, so much so that neither Milan side, after competing for the Scudetto up through the final day last season, was ever seriously in the title race at all this year. In fact, as it stands, the two teams are jostling for 4th place, and there's a very good chance the odd one out won't even play in next year's Champions League... that is, of course, unless they win the dang thing this time around. I'll confess, between how little I already consistently follow Serie A, and how out of the conversation the Milan clubs were, I don't know a whole lot about these sides. And, given that they literally play in the same stadium, home-field advantage is nonexistent. Although the two are hardly separated in the league table, though, it's not hard to conclude Inter Milan is the better side. They sit 2 points ahead, they're in the Coppa Italia Final, they already defeated Milan in the Supercoppa Italia Final in January, and also won their league matchup at last time of asking. However, Milan's quarterfinal victory over heavily favored Napoli (shortly after humiliating them in league play, no less) showed a focus and organization that has been rarely been present in their domestic form this season. That, plus the fact that their rivals have gotten the best of them the last two times, just makes me think the pendulum might swing the other way this time.

The Pick: Milan, 1-0