Champions League Predictions: Quarterfinals, Leg 2

It's already time for some more Champions League! You know what that means. In less than 24 hours, we get to experience some more terrific, pulsating football, and more importantly, the greatest anthem in the world.

The first leg of quarterfinal matches was not short on action, and gave us a preview of at least half, if not more, of the semifinal field. The first couple matches of last week went almost exactly as I predicted, as English heavyweights Manchester City and Liverpool overcame stodgy defending (and to be honest, their own faltering in attack) to earn crucial wins over Atlético Madrid and Benfica, respectively. Last Wednesday was when I lost the plot completely; not only did Chelsea not hold La Liga leaders Real Madrid to a draw, they were swept away at home in a dominating 3-1 Madrid win. More shockingly, and more notably, not only did Villarreal not suffer a blowout by mighty Bayern Munich, they went ahead and defeated the six-time champions, setting up an awfully dramatic second leg.

Now, to this week's slate of games:

Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

Chelsea entered the quarterfinal stage fresh off a bizarre home blowout by Brentford, but not low on optimism as before that loss the Blues had enjoyed weeks, even months, without a loss despite the drama surrounding the removal of their owner Roman Abramovich. Instead, the reigning champions find their hopes of repeating as champions, and indeed perhaps even their hopes of earning any hardware this season, on life support as they stare down a 1-3 deficit to Real Madrid. They’re perhaps fortunate that UEFA has decided to get rid of the away goals tiebreaker, otherwise Karim Benzene’s Stamford Bridge hat trick well and truly would have ended this tie. I don’t think it matters, though, as I just don’t think Chelsea has enough of a talent or managerial advantage (if such an advantage even exists) to overturn a 2-goal deficit to Real Madrid, regardless of where the match is played.

The Pick: Real Madrid, 2-1 (Real Madrid advances on 5-2 aggregate)

Bayern Munich vs. Villarreal

It is perhaps time for everyone, myself included, to sit up and take notice of Villarreal. When the quarterfinal draw was announced, most everyone would have agreed that Bayern Munich were lucky to have drawn La Liga’s 7th-placed team. Don’t tell “The Yellow Submarine” they’re heavy underdogs, as they continued their terrific run in this tournament by earning a Leg 1 win over the heavy favorites. In their last two matches in this competition, they have beaten Juventus and Bayern Munich by an aggregate of 4-0. Not bad, that. In fact, Bayern are lucky to not be down more; between a goal overturned by VAR for offsides, and Gerard Moreno both striking the post and narrowly missing a wide open net from half-field in the 2nd half, the Munich side really could be— and should be —in real trouble. As it is, I think this is too small a deficit to assume they won’t be able to overturn it. I mean no disrespect to Villarreal, who have surpassed my every expectation thus far and very well could be up for spoiling Bayern’s procession back to the semifinals, but the Germans are just so good, so deep, and so tough at home that I have to imagine they win by well more than one goal to book their spot in the semis. Though I doubt it gets quite to this level, I still have visions of their 7-1 Leg 2 win against Salzburg in my mind.

The Pick: Bayern Munich, 3-0 (Bayern Munich advances on 3-1 aggregate)

Liverpool vs. Benfica

For about 20 minutes in the second half in Lisbon, Liverpool looked legitimately rattled. After a dominant first half that saw them take a 2-0 lead into the break, Benfica star Darwin Nuñez had drawn his team back into affairs with a goal off a defensive miscue, and the Portuguese side in the minutes afterward were very much the aggressors, coming close to an equalizer multiple times, feeding off the energy of a raucous crowd in Estádio da Luz. But the 2019 champions held tough, ultimately killing off the first leg, and quite likely the tie, with a late goal from Luis Diaz, the former star of Benfica’s rivals Porto. Last round, Liverpool took a two-goal lead back to Anfield, and, perhaps because of the heavy slate of difficult domestic matches, actually lost to Inter, but not badly enough to fail to progress. Given the placement of this match between two mammoth showdowns with Manchester City, I would not be surprised to see Liverpool put in a similarly pedestrian shift this time. A Benfica draw, or perhaps even a late win, is not beyond belief to me. However, any result enough to ensure the elimination of Liverpool in front of their home fans, is.

The Pick: Draw, 0-0 (Liverpool advances on 3-1 aggregate)

Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester City

Assuming holders Chelsea entered their matchup with Real Madrid as the underdogs, it seems entirely possible we’re headed to a semifinal slate full of all four favored teams. However, if any favorite is to fail to progress, I actually think it may be Manchester City, theirs and Villarreal’s 1-0 leads notwithstanding. City certainly have the talent (and the form) advantage over Atlético, but it’s not nearly the stark difference that Bayern’s is over Villarreal, and Diego Simeone’s side has become famous over the years for frustrating and upsetting many a top team. They will by no means be able to progress if they repeat their first leg performance, which saw them register a grand total of zero- ZERO!!! -shots on Ederson’s goal, but though their style of play would not suggest it, they have real attacking talent. Perhaps even more relevantly, the Mancunians are likely to not be at their sharpest or most well-rested, given the recency of their massive clash with Liverpool and the second edition of said clash coming on Saturday. All of this being said, I don’t see the upset happening. Whether it’s early in the match or late, Atleti’s need for a goal will open them up to being caught out by City’s counter, which as we saw on Sunday can be positively devastating. I don’t think this team will be intimidated or come out with a frantic energy at all, but I do think City will be able to keep them at bay ling enough to hit them with a death knell goal late on.

The Pick: Manchester City, 1-0 (Manchester City advances on 2-0 aggregate)