Champions League Predictions: Quarterfinals, Leg 2
It's already time for some more Champions League! You know what that means. In less than 24 hours, we get to experience some more terrific, pulsating football, and more importantly, the greatest anthem in the world.
Last week was not short on action: as I expected, Manchester City and Real Madrid dispatched Dortmund and Liverpool on Tuesday. Admittedly, I was off on which match would be the more competitive. I also was off on both Wednesday matches last week; instead of 2 draws, Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain both scored massive away victories. All in all, I went just 2 for 4 on my early predictions, but considering one of my "misses" was borne out of a higher assessment of PSG than most in the media, I feel okay about myself.
Now, to this week's slate of games:
Chelsea vs. Porto
The first leg of this tie went an awful lot like a lot of Chelsea matches have gone under Thomas Tuchel, and not at all like their preceding match had gone: a lot of absorbing their opponents' attack but not breaking, then pouncing to capitalize against the run of play. For all of Porto's positive play, they weren't able to generate a goal, and were caught on the break twice. The Dragons now go to London in dangerous territory; they're capable of getting the goals they need, we've seen that, but will leave their back line even more susceptible to Chelsea's counterattack. Ultimately, it's too much to overcome.
The Pick: Chelsea, 3-1 (Chelsea advance 5-1 on aggregate)
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich
It's of course far too early to write Bayern Munich off; they're the holding title winners for a reason. and it's not as if Paris Saint-Germain doesn't have a history of blowing leads in the latter knockout stages. That said, don't be shocked if Leg 2 of the 2020 Final rematch goes very much the same way Leg 1 does. After all, the same dynamic that was at play last week will be once again tomorrow: for all of Bayern's quality, they are inconsistent at the back, missing the world's best forward at striker, and have to contend with the best young player on the planet running at full speed at said iffy back line. I expect the Germans will keep things interesting for some time tomorrow, but I just don't see them locking PSG down enough to overturn their deficit on the road.
The Pick: Draw, 2-2 (Paris Saint-Germain advance 5-4 on aggregate)
Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City
Much of what I said about Porto vs. Chelsea could apply to this fixture as well. The key difference is that Dortmund actually snagged an all-important away goal, and with an attack as prodigious as theirs, that is enough to keep hope alive for them. But the double whammy of Jude Bellingham's farcical disallowed goal and Phil Foden's last- minute winner was a real killer; can Dortmund score on Manchester City? Absolutely, even with as good as City's defense has been since December. Can they do so without exposing themselves to City's countless attacking threats shredding their oft-absent defense? That's where I'm skeptical.
The Pick: Manchester City, 4-2 (Manchester City advance 6-3 on aggregate)
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
Against RB Leipzig in the Round of 16, the Champions League served as a reminder of Liverpool's true quality, amidst a positively horrid Premier League run that began right after Christmas. Now, in the wacky, never-ending rollercoaster that is the Reds' season, it appears the Premier League is the antidote to their poor Champions League play. A dominant league victory over Arsenal and gritty, crucial, comeback win against Aston Villa the last two weekends were sandwiched around last week's disasterclass at Real Madrid. Madrid. Real did play well, and play organized, particularly in midfield, but most of the 3-1 victory can be chalked up to Liverpool's utter inept performance, from just about every player on the pitch to yes, even the manager himself. Mo Salah's away goal is enough to at least make Wednesday's match potentially interesting, but it's just hard to see how Liverpool and Madrid could swap form so comprehensively, which is probably what would be required to see the Reds progress.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1 (Real Madrid advance 4-2 on aggregate)
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