Champions League Predictions: Quarterfinals, Leg 1

After several months of spitting out weekly predictions for England's domestic league, we've reached the point in another competition where it's high time I start generating the same analysis for club soccer's premier tournament: the Champions League!

I promise I have been following the tournament from the start and am not just now turning into the tournament. In case you are doing just that, though, here's a quick rundown on the biggest stories you've missed thus far:

• Italian contenders Napoli won their group for the first time in their Champions League history, embarrassing last year's runners-up Liverpool in the process

• Chaos reigned in Group B, which saw underdogs Porto and Club Brugge advance at the expense of heavy favorites Atlético Madrid (who finished last place) and Bayer Leverkusen

• Barcelona exited in the group stage for the second consecutive year, stunningly, while Italian giants Juventus also did not see the knockout stage, mustering up a measly single win in the group stages

• All 4 English teams in the competition progressed to the knockout stages, with 3 of them topping their groups

• In a group with Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica took top honors, edging the French titans on away goals scored on the final day

• Speaking of PSG, their Champions League futility continued with a second consecutive Round of 16 exit, this year at the hands of 2020 Final opponents Bayern Munich
  

• Manchester City advanced to the quarterfinals once again, thanks to a record-breaking 7-0 win in their 2nd leg against Leipzig

• Milan reached their first quarterfinals since their 2007 title, despite managing only 1 goal against Tottenham over two legs
  

• In a Round of 16 rematch of last year's Final, Real Madrid broke Liverpool hearts for the third consecutive year (and fourth time in six years), this time with a stunning 5-2 comeback rout at Anfield that effectively ended the tie after one leg

Now, to this week's slate of games:

Benfica vs. Inter Milan

This first of the quarterfinal matchups, kicking off tomorrow, pits together two clubs that are among the most famous names in their respective countries, but certainly are the two biggest underdogs left in this tournament. To be fair, both sides reached the knockout stages just last year (interestingly, both were eliminated by Liverpool along the Reds’ path to the Final), but still, fact that one of these clubs has to progress to the next stage guarantees a surefire Cinderella in the semifinals for the second consecutive season. Inter has a leg up when it comes to experience and success in this tournament, and on paper, is still probably the more talented side. But, while it doesn't always correlate directly, I’m inclined to believe the biggest predictor in Champions League football is domestic form, for obvious reasons. While the Nerazzurri have struggled to get any consistent footing in Serie A after coming oh-so-close to winning it last year, Benfica are starting to run away with the Premiera Liga this season. It feels like this may finally be the Portuguese side’s time to break through and reach new heights.

The Pick: Benfica, 3-1

Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich

For a season that many (myself included) have noted as somewhat disappointing by their standards, Manchester City suddenly are in a decent position to win not one, not two, but three major trophies. The Cityzens are a virtual 3 points back in the Premier League race thanks to Arsenal’s draw with Liverpool over the weekend, are in the semifinal stage of the FA Cup, and obviously, the quarterfinal stage of the Champions League. Erling Haaland and co. are once again belting in goals at a frankly alarming rate, and it’s not absurd to ask if there is any club out there that can manage to outscore them head to head. That said, Bayern Munich likely will relish the opportunity to answer that question. The big bullies of the Bundesliga have themselves had a topsy-turvy season: the last few weeks have seen them fire manager Julian Nagelsmann, hire old foe Thomas Tuchel, bash Tuchel’s old side Dortmund to regain the league lead, then crash out of the DFB Pokal with an upset loss to Freiburg. Form has been inconsistent for both these major clubs, but talent abounds everywhere on the field, especially the attacking end. No result is a sure thing, but goals by both are almost guaranteed. In this first leg, however, smart money is on the home side to get a leg up within friendly confines.

The Pick: Manchester City, 3-1

Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

The reigning champions, and undisputed kings of this competition are back at it again. Despite bad domestic form, Real Madrid have been nothing short of dominant in the Champions League, topping their group with ease, and dispatching defending runners-up Liverpool with even more ease last round. Their weekend league loss all but guaranteed La Liga's crown will go to their rivals this season, but like Alabama college football, even in Real's ‘down’ years they have to be considered favorites for the Champions League. That said, one team (maybe the only team) that has weirdly had their number in recent years in this competition is none other than Chelsea. The Blues won both semifinal ties and eliminated them in 2021 en route to their stunning title win, and were a Benzema overtime goal away from completing a miracle comeback from 1-3 down at the Bernabéu last year in this very round. Want more reason for hope for Chelsea fans, despite their horrid domestic form? Well, their Premier League form was far from great at this stage last two years, as well as at this stage in 2012. That mattered little, as the 2012 and 2021 runs yielded their only trophies in this competition, and as just mentioned, they only fell last year in the quarterfinals to the eventual champions due to an overtime goal on the road. Still, the timing is particularly poor for the 2023 edition of Chelsea, on their third manager of the season. I have my doubts about caretaker manager Frank Lampard’s ability, especially on short notice, to turn this underachieving group into a cohesive, performing unit, and their form has been SO unimpressive that I can’t see them winning on Wednesday. But, if the Blues are still in striking distance after this first leg, watch out. Anything can happen!

The Pick: Real Madrid, 3-0

AC Milan vs. Napoli

The big winner of UEFA's combined quarterfinal and semifinal draw was Napoli, no question. A team that has never even reached this stage in any European tournament is suddenly the betting odd favorite to reach the Final. It may sound wild, but that’s what happens when the four big underdogs are drawn on same side of bracket, and this “underdog” happens to be in the midst of their greatest season ever. Gli Azzurri are in hot pursuit of first Serie A title, currently making a mockery of the rest of the league. That said, while the Italian crown is all but done and dusted, Napoli's next opponents did humiliate them just over a week ago, on their home field. While Milan doesn’t have, say, Real Madrid’s level of success in this tourney, especially in the last decade, they're in the tier just below with only a few other clubs, and there’s a similar consideration to be made here for history and legacy of European triumphs. I think I like Napoli overall in the tie still, but I suspect Round 1 may go to the Rossoneri at home, especially if the reports of Victor Osimhen's absence due to injury prove true.

The Pick: Milan, 2-1