2021 Emmy Predictions
Tonight, the 73rd Primetime Emmy Awards take place! We at The Couch will be watching as invested-- and at least somewhat informed --viewers, start to finish.
For the second straight year, it will be an Emmy ceremony unlike any other. Last year, Jimmy Kimmel hosted an almost-entirely virtual ceremony from an empty Staples Center. This year, like the Grammys and Oscars before it, the Emmys will have an audience present, but it will be reduced in number, and in a combination indoor-outdoor venue; namely, the Event Deck at L.A. Live. In lieu of the usual talk show host emceeing the night, too, CBS is leaning on Cedric The Entertainer, star of their comedy The Neighborhood. It's a bit of a bizarre choice to pass up Stephen Colbert after his masterclass in 2017, and James Corden after his terrific turn hosting the Tonys in recent years, but I imagine anybody with "The Entertainer" in their name promises to be a solid host.
I've enlisted the usual suspects, our pop culture gurus, to put together our Emmy predictions and I've addes some analysis for you as comprehensively as I can. That said, for those of you that are not aware, there is a TON of television out there. So, though this will mimic similar preview pieces we've done on Grammy and Oscar shows of the past, with "Will Win" and "Should Win" offerings as well, we apologize in advance for any instances of us being out of the loop on a show you may know and love more than we do. Now, enough caveat, let's get these award predictions rolling!
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Comedy Series
Carl Clemons-Hawkins, Hacks ("New Eyes")
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso ("All Apologies")
Brendan Hunt, Ted Lasso ("Two Aces")
Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso ("Make Rebecca Great Again")
Paul Reiser, The Kominsky Method ("Chapter 18. you only give me your funny paper")
Jeremy Swift, Ted Lasso ("Biscuits")
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live ("Host: Dave Chappelle")
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live ("Host: Carey Mulligan")
Will Win:
Daniel Baas: Nick Mohammed
Christian: Brett Goldstein
Sierra: Kenan Thompson
Daniel Woodiwiss: Brett Goldstein
Could Win:
Baas: Brendan Hunt
Christian: Kenan Thompson
Sierra: Bowen Yang
Woodiwiss: Kenan Thompson
Should Win:
Baas: Nick Mohammed
Christian: Brett Goldstein
Sierra: Nick Mohammed OR Jeremy Swift, my two favs
Woodiwiss: Bowen Yang
Thoughts?
Keeping with what is pretty much the theme of the night, this category is completely dominated by Ted Lasso. You could close your eyes and throw a dart, and you'd have a 50% chance of hitting AFC Richmond personnel, so it's not exactly a stretch to imagine one of those actors taking home this award. Of the Lasso gang, the odds-on favorite is Brett Goldstein, who plays lovable gruff Roy Kent. He'd be a deserving winner, but selfishly, I'd love to see Kenan Thompson win a long-anticipated Emmy for his record-setting tenure on Saturday Night Live, or his castmate Bowen Yang, who made me laugh more than anyone this year, pull off an upset.
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Comedy Series
Aidy Bryant, Saturday Night Live ("Host: Regé-Jean Page")
Hannah Einbender, Hacks ("I Think She Will")
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live ("Host: Bill Burr")
Rosie Perez, The Flight Attendant ("Arrivals And Departures")
Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live ("Host: Anya Taylor-Joy")
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso ("For The Children")
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso ("All Apologies")
Will Win:
Baas: Hannah Waddingham
Christian: Hannah Waddingham
Sierra: Hannah Waddingham
Woodiwiss: Hannah Waddingham
Could Win:
Baas: Juno Temple
Christian: Cecily Strong
Sierra: Juno Temple
Woodiwiss: Juno Temple
Should Win:
Baas: Hannah Waddingham
Christian: Hannah Waddingham
Sierra: Hannah Waddingham. The first woman in my 27 years alive to actually make me question my sexuality. She is my God. My Everything.
Woodiwiss: Cecily Strong
Thoughts?
Just as in the Supporting Actor field, the chief storyline here is the Ted Lasso entry. Although it's actually outnumbered by Saturday Night Live in this field, there probably is an even better chance of a Lasso triumph here. The friendship and individual growth of Juno Temple's Keeley and Hannah Waddingham's Rebecca was one of the biggest driving forces of Season 1, and none of the SNL ladies had quite as dominant a year as usual; in fact, both Aidy Bryant and Cecily Strong were only on the show for half the season. That said, I will always cheer for Strong (I've been trying to get #giveCecilyanEmmy trending for years), and I've heard good things about Hannah Einbender's and Rosie Perez's performances, so there can't be a bad option here.
The Ted Lasso and real-life BFFs have a very good chance of taking home an Emmy between them.
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Drama Series
Giancarlo Esposito, The Mandalorian ("Chapter 16: The Rescue")
O-T Fagbenle, The Handmaid's Tale ("Home")
John Lithgow, Perry Mason ("Chapter 4")
Tobias Menzes, The Crown ("Gold Stick")
Max Minghella, The Handmaid's Tale ("The Crossing")
Chris Sullivan, This Is Us ("In The Room ")
Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid's Tale ("Testimony")
Michael K. Williams, Lovecraft Country ("Rewind 1921")
Will Win:
Baas: Tobias Menzes
Christian: Michael K. Williams
Sierra: Michael K. Williams
Woodiwiss: Michael K. Williams
Could Win:
Baas: Giancarlo Esposito
Christian: John Lithgow
Woodiwiss: Tobias Menzes
Should Win:
Baas: Tobias Menzes
Christian: Michael K. Williams
Sierra: Michael K. Williams
Woodiwiss: O-T Fagbenle
Thoughts?
All three of The Handmaid's Tale nominees were terrific this year-- I was especially thrilled to see O-T Fagbenle nominated, as his portrayal of Luke this season was magnificent --and I'm happy to see Chris Sullivan get a much-deserved nod as well. But, this is a field that already lent itself to a Michael K. Williams victory anyhow, given he was the known quantity and beloved figure in a field lacking a true frontrunner. His win feels all the more likely in the wake of his tragic and recent death.
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Drama Series
Gillian Anderson, The Crown ("Favourites")
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown ("The Hereditary Principle")
Madeline Brewer, The Handmaid's Tale ("Testimony")
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid's Tale ("Progress")
Aunjanue Ellis, Lovecraft Country ("I Am.")
Emerald Fennell, The Crown ("Fairytale")
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid's Tale ("Home")
Samira Wiley, The Handmaid's Tale ("Sacrifice")
Will Win:
Baas: Gillian Anderson
Christian: Gillian Anderson
Sierra: Gillian Anderson because the Internet told me to pick her
Woodiwiss: Gillian Anderson
Could Win:
Baas: Helena Bonham Carter
Christian: Helena Bonham Carter
Sierra: Helena Bonham Carter
Woodiwiss: Helena Bonham Carter
Should Win:
Baas: Gillian Anderson
Christian: Gillian Anderson
Sierra: Ann Dowd. The only good thing about Handmaid's Tale is this woman
Woodiwiss: Madeline Brewer
Thoughts?
In a field made up almost entirely of The Crown and Handmaid's Tale, it feels like the winner will likely be an actress from the former; not only is The Crown the frontrunner for Drama, Gillian Anderson and Helena Bonham Carter turned in the two buzziest performances of these nominees. Anderson in particular is a critical favorite for her portrayal of the larger-than-life Margaret Thatcher. From a biased perspective, though, I would love for any of the Handmaid's Tale actresses to win, in particular Madeline Brewer, who FINALLY gets some recognition for her incredible job as the troubled but resilient Janine.
Outstanding Actor for a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish ("What About Gary?")
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method ("Chapter 20: the round toes, of the high shoes")
William H. Macy, Shameless ("Father Frank, Full Of Grace")
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso ("Pilot")
Kenan Thompson, Kenan ("Flirting")
Will Win:
Baas: Jason Sudeikis
Christian: Jason Sudeikis
Sierra: Jason Sudeikis
Woodiwiss: Jason Sudeikis
Could Win:
Baas: Michael Douglas
Christian: Kenan Thompson
Sierra: William H. Macy, in the final season win
Woodiwiss: Michael Douglas
Should Win:
Baas: Jason Sudeikis
Christian: Jason Sudeikis
Sierra: Jason Sudeikis > Harry Styles
Woodiwiss: Jason Sudeikis
Thoughts?
Of all the Comedy categories, this is probably the biggest slam dunk victory for Ted Lasso. The whole show is the brainchild of Jason Sudeikis, and his inch-perfect portrayal of the irritatingly heartwarming protagonist is the only reason the show works. If you want any further proof of how much of a favorite he is, Sudeikis was the only person or show to interrupt Schitt's Creek's award-sweeping farewell tour in the last year, when he nudged Eugene Levy at the Golden Globes for Best Actor.
The creator, star and namesake of Ted Lasso is the heavy favorite to win his first Emmy ever. No word yet on whether he'll accept said Emmy in a hoodie.
Outstanding Actress for a Comedy Series
Aidy Bryant, Shrill ("Ranchers")
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant ("In Case Of Emergency")
Allison Janney, Mom ("My Kinda People and the Big To-Do")
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish ("Babes In Boyland")
Jean Smart, Hacks ("1.69 Million")
Will Win:
Baas: Jean Smart
Christian: Jean Smart
Sierra: Jean Smart
Woodiwiss: Jean Smart
Could Win:
Christian: Kaley Cuoco
Sierra: Allison Janney, in the final season win
Woodiwiss: Tracee Ellis Ross
Should Win:
Baas: Jean Smart
Christian: Jean Smart
Sierra: Aidy Bryant
Woodiwiss: Jean Smart
Thoughts?
Last year was the much-awaited coronation of Catherine O'Hara. In previous years, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Julia Louis Dreyfus and Rachel Brosnahan were no-brainer winners. There's no foregone conclusion like that this year, which could make for a surprise winner, a la Zendaya in the Drama Actress category last year. That said, all signs point to Jean Smart in the well-received Hacks having her time in the sun. The only potential spoiler that comes to mind for me is Tracee Ellis Ross, who has had a bit of 'always the bridesmaid' syndrome with her multiple nominations for Black-ish. I haven't seen a single one of these shows, unfortunately, but I have never not been delighted by both Smart and Ross, so no complaints here.
Outstanding Actor for a Drama Series
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us ("Forty: Part 2")
Jonathan Majors, Lovecraft Country ("Sundown")
Josh O'Connor, The Crown ("Terra Nullius")
Regé-Jean Page, Bridgerton ("Art of the Swoon")
Billy Porter, Pose ("Take Me To Church")
Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason ("Chapter 8")
Will Win:
Baas: Josh O'Connor
Christian: Regé-Jean Page
Sierra: Billy Porter
Woodiwiss: Josh O'Connor
Could Win:
Baas: Regé-Jean Page
Christian: Josh O'Connor
Sierra: Josh O'Connor
Woodiwiss: Regé-Jean Page
Should Win:
Baas: Josh O'Connor
Christian: Matthew Rhys
Sierra: Jonathan Majors, the best part of a bad show
Woodiwiss: Josh O'Connor
Thoughts?
Where last year's race was a battle royale between father and son in Succession, this year seems to belong to Josh O'Connor and nobody else. If there is to be a spoiler, it could be Regé-Jean Page fulfilling the "young, dynamic star" buzz that Zendaya rode to her upset win last year, or it could be Billy Porter, in a parting gift after Pose's farewell season. But the most likely outcome by far is O'Connor winning the crown (pun wholly intended), and that's fine by me; I haven't caught up with The Crown yet, but anybody who can successfully make my family members sympathize with Prince Charles earns my respect.
Outstanding Actress for a Drama Series
Uzo Aduba, In Treatment ("Brooke - Week 5")
Olivia Colman, The Crown ("48:1")
Emma Corrin, The Crown ("Fairytale")
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's Tale ("Home")
Mj Rodriguez, Pose ("Series Finale")
Jurnee Smollett, Lovecraft Country ("Holy Ghost")
Will Win:
Baas: Emma Corrin
Christian: Olivia Colman
Sierra: Emma Corrin
Woodiwiss: Emma Corrin
Could Win:
Baas: Mj Rodriguez
Christian: Emma Corrin
Sierra: Mj Rodriguez
Woodiwiss: Mj Rodriguez
Should Win:
Baas: Olivia Colman
Christian: Olivia Colman
Woodiwiss: Olivia Colman
Thoughts?
No Euphoria season this year means no repeat win for Zendaya, but could one of these nominees make like the defending champion and score an impactful, shocking upset win? IF that should transpire, our money would be on Mj Rodriguez, the first transgender nominee in history, and one whose nominated entry is the final episode of her acclaimed show. But all signs point to yet another award for young Emma Corrin, whose portrayal of the late Princess Diana has garnered universal acclaim.
Outstanding Actress for a Limited or Anthology Series
Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You
Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha
Elizabeth Olsen, WandaVision
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen's Gambit
Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown
Will Win:
Baas: Anya Taylor-Joy
Christian: Kate Winslet
Sierra: Kate Winslet
Woodiwiss: Anya Taylor-Joy
Could Win:
Baas: Kate Winslet
Christian: Anya Taylor-Joy
Sierra: Anya Taylor-Joy
Woodiwiss: Kate Winslet
Should Win:
Baas: Kate Winslet
Christian: Kate Winslet
Sierra: Elizabeth Olsen
Woodiwiss: Kate Winslet
Thoughts?
I am absolutely fascinated by the Limited/Anthology Series race this year. This is a category that is almost annually is dominated by a clear frontrunner. In recent years, it was a foregone conclusion that Watchmen, Chernobyl, and Big Little Lies would just about sweep the awards. For a while, The Queen's Gambit looked as if it would follow the same trajectory, riding positive critical reviews and a massive viewership. But then came a groundswell of support for Michaela Coel and her remarkable project I May Destroy You, then the Marvel machine WandaVision and the HBO 'whodunit' Mare Of Easttown dominated the hype in late Spring/early Summer. Furthermore, all the above are fronted by women turning in magnificent performances, so by extension, we also have this thrilling Limited Series Actress race! I think Anya Taylor-Joy is still the favorite, but it's far less a sure thing than it previously seemed. There's a big push for Kate Winslet of late, and for my money, she deserves it for her heartbreakingly effective of the titular, broken-yet resilient Mare.
Which actress will win top honors amidst perhaps the most loaded Limited Series field ever?
Outstanding Variety Special (Live)
Celebrating America - An Inauguration Night Special
The 63rd Annual Grammy Awards
The Oscars
The Pepsi Super Bowl LV Halftime Show Featuring The Weeknd
Stephen Colbert's Election Night 2020: Democracy's Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020
Will Win:
Baas: The Oscars
Christian: Celebrating America - An Inauguration Night Special
Sierra: Celebrating America - An Inauguration Night Special
Woodiwiss: Celebrating America - An Inauguration Night Special
Could Win:
Baas: The Pepsi Super Bowl LV Halftime Show Featuring The Weeknd
Christian: The Pepsi Super Bowl LV Halftime Show Featuring The Weeknd
Sierra: The Pepsi Super Bowl LV Halftime Show Featuring The Weeknd
Woodiwiss: Stephen Colbert's Election Night 2020: Democracy's Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020
Should Win:
Baas: The Oscars
Christian: Stephen Colbert's Election Night 2020: Democracy's Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020
Sierra: What are these nominees?? I am laughing at any of them winning
Woodiwiss: The 63rd Annual Grammy Awards
Thoughts?
This is a category that tends to belong to the awards shows and Super Bowl halftime shows, so it's no surprise to see the Grammys, Oscars, and The Weeknd's Super Bowl performance all nominated. However, after the turbulent socio-political year we had last year, it feels like this will be a nice excuse to choose a political winner, and the Inauguration special, with its theme of unity, is an easy choice, although the Academy does love Stephen Colbert too. It'd be a shame if they go this route, because as I've already written on this blog, this year's Grammys was nothing short of masterful.
Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
Bo Burnham: Inside
David Byrne's American Utopia
8:46 - Dave Chappelle
Friends: The Reunion
Hamilton
A West Wing Special to Benefit When We All Vote
Will Win:
Baas: Hamilton
Christian: Bo Burnham: Inside
Sierra: David Byrne's American Utopia
Woodiwiss: Bo Burnham: Inside
Could Win:
Baas: Bo Burnham: Inside
Christian: Hamilton
Sierra: Bo Burnham: Inside
Woodiwiss: 8:46 - Dave Chappelle
Should Win:
Baas: Bo Burnham: Inside
Christian: Bo Burnham: Inside
Sierra: Bo Burnham: Inside
Woodiwiss: Bo Burnham: Inside
Thoughts?
Thanks to the unique circumstances brought about by COVID-19, this "Pre-Recorded" category has some considerably heavier hitters than usual. In fact, were it not for the Limited Series bonanza, I'd peg this as the most competitive race of the night. Bo Burnham's remarkable Inside, a comedy-musical blend shot entirely from his apartment, not only has the recency angle with its early Summer release, it has an enormous amount of support from the Twittersphere and younger demographic. That said, the Academy doesn't exactly skew younger, and Bo faces some stiff competition from reunions of two old Emmy stalwarts, Friends and The West Wing, and from the TV release of the original Hamilton cast on Broadway. But perhaps the best competition for Burnham is yet another mostly-serious entry from an esteemed comedian, Dave Chappelle's brilliant mini-set in the wake of George Floyd's murder.
Emmy winner Socko? Please let it be so.
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
I May Destroy You
Mare of Easttown
The Queen's Gambit
The Underground Railroad
WandaVision
Will Win:
Baas: The Queen's Gambit
Christian: The Queen's Gambit
Sierra: The Queen's Gambit
Woodiwiss: The Queen's Gambit
Could Win:
Baas: Mare of Easttown
Christian: Mare of Easttown
Sierra: Mare of Easttown
Woodiwiss: I May Destroy You
Should Win:
Baas: Mare of Easttown
Christian: WandaVision
Sierra: I May Destroy You
Woodiwiss: I May Destroy You
Thoughts?
See above in the Actress discussion. This is a thrilling race between wildly different miniseries', which run the gamut of crowd pleaser, sci-fi, realistic fiction, and social awareness. Again, it still feels like it's The Queen's Gambit's race to lose, but it won't be without stiff competition. Marvel's massive appeal and the positive reception for WandaVision make it a legitimate spoiler option, and Mare Of Easttown was arguably the show of the summer. And don't count out Michaela Coel's (relatively) small but mighty I May Destroy You. It's a tour de force, and though it may be the least 'rewatchable' of the nominees, it's also completely unlike any other candidates for this award.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Black-ish
Cobra Kai
Emily in Paris
The Flight Attendant
Hacks
The Kominsky Method
PEN15
Ted Lasso
Will Win:
Baas: Ted Lasso
Christian: Ted Lasso
Sierra: Ted Lasso
Woodiwiss: Ted Lasso
Could Win:
Baas: Hacks
Christian: Hacks
Woodiwiss: Hacks
Should Win:
Baas: Ted Lasso
Christian: Ted Lasso
Woodiwiss: Emily in Par-- nah, just kidding. Ted Lasso, of course.
Thoughts?
First off, I find it absolutely hilarious that Cobra Kai and Emily In Paris are nominated for Best Comedy Series. What an A+ troll job by the Academy. Fortunately, neither have a snowball's chance in hell of winning, thanks to a little show named Ted Lasso. The breakout show's brilliant first season has captured the hearts of, well, everybody, and it's not hard to foresee it having a clean sweep through the Comedy awards like Schitt's Creek had last year. IF, and this is a huge if, IF there is to be a stunner in this category, it may be that the Academy is tired of the hype about this saccharine program, and opt for the more cynical Hacks, or cult favorite PEN15. But unlike the Richmond faithful, I would bet the farm on Ted.
Outstanding Drama Series
The Boys
Bridgerton
The Crown
The Handmaid's Tale
Lovecraft Country
The Mandalorian
Pose
This Is Us
Will Win:
Baas: The Crown
Christian: The Crown
Sierra: The Crown
Woodiwiss: The Crown
Could Win:
Baas: The Mandalorian
Christian: Lovecraft Country
Woodiwiss: The Mandalorian
Should Win:
Baas: The Crown
Christian: The Boys
Sierra: Ted Lasso. It's a Drama, let's be honest.
Woodiwiss: The Handmaid's Tale
Thoughts?
This could be a really compelling race, as we are past the era of domination by a single program such as Game of Thrones, Mad Men, or The West Wing. You've got former winners Handmaid's Tale in there, as well as perennial nominees The Crown and This Is Us, all of which are coming off what critics consider perhaps their strongest season yet. You've got the crowd-pleaser options in Bridgerton and The Mandalorian, both of which were popular sensations. Then, you've got the emotional angle for Lovecraft Country, cancelled after just one year despite rave reviews, and Pose, who just completed their final season. Still, I'd hesitate to call it 'anyone's game'; much like Succession last year, The Crown seems poised for its first-ever win in this category in the wake of awards circuit domination of late.
At the fourth time of asking, it may finally be The Crown's time to rule.
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