Premier League Predictions, Week 22

Welcome back to your Premier League predictions! As we approach the new "Winter Break" (after this weekend, each team will play only one match in the next 2 weeks), and with only a couple midweek matches this week-- a rescheduled matchup between West Ham and Liverpool, and the 2nd leg of the League Cup semifinals -- things finally seem to be slowing down a bit after Crazy December and January (tm). Of course, in less than a month, the Champions League will resume, and the FA Cup will get in full swing, and we'll be right back to insane amounts of matches in short amounts of time, with Jürgen Klopp publicly hemming and hawing throughout it all.

Speaking of Jürgen Klopp hemming and hawing, the famous Liverpool manager wouldn't be too thrilled with the way I've forecasted his squad this season, as I once again predicted a draw when I should have expected a win. To be fair, nobody could have expected the run his Reds are on, and had it not been for a late Bobby Firmino winner, my 1-1 draw with Wolves prediction would have looked pretty stellar. In fact, my picks on the whole weren't as bad as they'd been in recent weeks. I whiffed on Sheffield United drawing with Manchester City, sure, but I whiffed by being bold. And otherwise, I was spot on, picking Liverpool by 2 goals over West Ham, Leicester over West Ham as well, and Chelsea-Arsenal with a 2-2 draw. I'll give myself a 3.5/5 on the week for nailing the London Derby scoreline, which brings me to 46.5/75. Mild progress.

Now, the matches are less than 12 hours away from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time taking baby steps. Here are your 5 for Week 22!

Leicester City vs. Chelsea

The weekend kicks off with a matchup between our 3rd and 4th-place teams. After a rough month or so, Leicester got a much-needed win with a comfortable 4-1 rout over West Ham last week. Meanwhile, Chelsea continued their bizarre form (or lack thereof) by conceding late at home in a 2-2 draw with Arsenal. In their last 6 matches, the Blues have now won 2, lost 2, and drawn 2. It's no longer a stretch to call Leicester the better team here, and they'll have the home crowd behind them. But with Chelsea eagerly looking to not concede any ground to the three teams sitting tied for 5th place, I can't see the Foxes coming away with all 3 points this time.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Crystal Palace vs. Sheffield United

One of the perks, in addition to entertainment value, of having a weekend where 6 of the Top 7 are facing each other is that you can give a little airtime to the likes of Crystal Palace and Sheffield. Sure, most eyes won't be on South London tomorrow, but this is a crucial matchup as both teams, believe it or not, still have a non-zero chance of snagging a Champions League spot. Sheffield are in the better position, just a point off of the 5th-placed triumvirate, and a mere 7 points out of 4th. Both clubs are desperately hungry for a win, though. Crystal Palace's last victory in any competition came on Boxing Day, and United have just one league win in that same timeframe. Palace have proven very difficult to predict this year; some weeks they're drawing with Manchester City and pushing Liverpool to the last minute, other weeks they're losing to Norwich City and Southampton. They've proved to get up for the big opponent but overlook the smaller opponent, and though they have no right to view Sheffield United as a lesser opponent at this time, I think they still just might.

The Pick: Sheffield United, 1-0

Liverpool vs. Southampton

The question has gone from "Is this the year Liverpool will win the league??" to "When will Liverpool clinch the league?" to "Is Liverpool ever gonna lose?!?" Such is the form of the Reds, who have a 19-point lead atop the table. Thanks to this week's victory over West Ham, they have now beaten every club in the Premier League, won every single match except one, and have a record-setting 70 points in January. So, can Southampton of all teams be the ones to finally bring an end to this reign of terror? There's a significant part of me that thinks if any club is going to beat Liverpool this season, it's going to be a side like Southampton, who won't come into as raucous a crowd as the Manchester teams or Chelsea would face, but is plucky, in good form, and has a lethal assassin (and former Liverpool player) in Danny Ings. Then again, Liverpool rarely struggles with Southampton at home-- at least in the last 3 seasons --and I said since November that they wouldn't get out of the 3-match stretch they just completed with 3 wins. They did. I think the lads prove my inherent reserve unfounded again.

The Pick: Liverpool, 3-1

Manchester United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

Based on the clubs' trajectories at the end of last season, perhaps we shouldn't be surprised, but who truly would have believed that at this point in the season, Manchester United and Wolverhampton would be tied for 5th place, on 34 points? It's a testament to the staying power of Wolves, who were playing a league below just one and a half seasons ago, under Nuno Espirito Santo. It's also a testament to the oft-entertaining, but always turbulent season a young Man U team has had. This is obviously a significant match with regards to the race for 4th place, and having it held in Old Trafford should make the Red Devils feel better. But, choppy as Wolves' form has been of late, you just can't count them out in key matches, and I think they'll cause trouble for a United team that is suffering major injuries to key players.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester City

When these two first met back in August, which feels like a completely different season, their thrilling, VAR-laden 2-2 draw felt like the first significant event in the Premier League season. Now, with Liverpool positively running away with the trophy and Harry Kane, Aymeric Laporte, and Benjamin Mendy all sidelined by injury, this match almost feels like an afterthought. But storylines abound: Mourinho's first match against his old crosstown rival since Fall of 2018. City's last glimmering hopes of a third straight Premier League title. Tottenham's late push for 4th place. These two seem to always play can't-miss football, and I expect this will be no different. But only one of the sides is starting to get more healthy rather than less, and more importantly, starting to play in the form that most expected them to this season. That team is the visiting one. The Citizens win a close one.

The Pick: Manchester City, 2-1

Premier League Predictions, Week 22

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