Premier League Predictions, Week 16

Welcome back to your weekly Premier League predictions! We're in the middle of crazy December (TM), and after 2 league matches last week, many clubs are again going to be entering the weekend on short rests, thanks to Champions and Europa League action this week. It's a more subdued slate this time out, with only one real eyebrow-raising fixture on the docket. But then again, that's just how it seems; as we've seen already plenty of times this season, there's no team that's not capable of surprising any opponent.

Speaking of surprise results, I saw a pretty mediocre week in my predictions last time out. Sure, I got 3 of the 5, accurately predicting a Liverpool sweep and a Leicester win over Aston Villa. But those results were expected, and besides, my projection that the Merseyside Derby would be a tight affair was, uh, very not correct. Then, I missed on the two biggest matches of the week by twice (TWIIIIIIICE!) underestimating Manchester United, first in their impressive win over Tottenham, then in their stunning upset of Manchester City. This takes me to a total of 33/50 on the season, which if I'm doing my maths correctly, makes 66% which makes 2/3rds, which makes enough of a majority to remove a sitting President from office. So in the grand scheme of things, I'm doing okay!

Now, the matches are less than 12 hours away, so let's not waste any more time mired in mediocrity. Here are your 5 for Week 16!

Liverpool vs. Watford

League leaders Liverpool are certainly in a festive spirit this holiday season: their rivals Manchester United unwittingly helped them in the title race by beating Manchester City last week, widening the gap between the first and third-placed team so much that, at the risk of sounding premature, it appears to be a two-horse race in the Premier League. After a sweep of their two Premier League matches last week, they won their Champions League group on Wednesday with a commanding win over Red Bull Salzburg, then just days later announced they were signing their foe's best player. And perhaps most importantly, just like last year, their form appears to have kicked into a whole other dimension in the crowded month of December. All of this spells big trouble for last-place Watford, who have had as much trouble scoring goals as they have stopping them. They do enter this game with a brand-new manager (their 3rd of the season) and can hope for the good ol' "new manager bounce," but even that would likely not be enough to make up the quality gap here.

The Pick: Liverpool, 4-1

Leicester City vs. Norwich City

While Liverpool dominate the headlines with their victories, and the rest of the big Six stay in the news with their inconsistency, Leicester City quietly just keeps winning, and Jamie Vardy just keeps scoring goals. This feels like the best kind of deja vu for the Foxes, who sit in 2nd place, but unlike 2015-16, which saw their glorious run to the title, this season they have a big menace in front of them that do not look like relinquishing first place. Norwich, conversely, is in second-to-last, and though that is an improvement over the last several weeks spent in last, they have a long way to go to work themselves out of relegation contention. I still believe in the Canaries' long-term quality, and think they'll give Leicester a surprising fight this weekend, but will come up just short against a side who would love to take their winning streak into the Christmas holiday.

The Pick: Leicester, 3-2

Manchester United vs. Everton

Despite being far behind their fans' expectations to date, both these sides enter this matchup coming off of their best weeks of the season. Manchester United are undoubtedly in the midst of their best stretch of the year, following up their 2-win week-- which was equal parts impressive and stunning --with a blowout win over AZ Alkmaar on Thursday to top their Europa League group entering the knockout stages. This is the Red Devils side their fans had hoped to see all season. Everton, meanwhile, suffered after a midweek dressing down vs. Merseyside rivals Liverpool that saw their manager officially sacked, but then bounced back in a major way in their first match post-Marcos Silva, stunning 4th-place Chelsea at home. I expect Man U to be the better side this weekend, but ultimately, as we've seen in all matches not involving Big Six teams, lose focus enough to drop points.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Last week’s loss to Manchester United notwithstanding, Jose Mourinho seems to have largely gotten Tottenham back on form, approaching the midseason point, and just in time. They now face a tough test from a resurgent Wolves side. After an ugly start to the season, Wolverhampton have now strung together 11 consecutive Premier League matches without losing, good enough to vault themselves into 6th place, and like Manchester United before them, topped their Europa league group in the midweek. After a season and a half of quality play, you can’t say it's a fluke: Wolves are a dangerous side through and through. But I think Mourinho knows this, and will have Spurs ready to do just enough to pass the stern test.

The Pick: Tottenham, 1-0

Arsenal vs. Manchester City

The marquee matchup is one whose stakes won’t be as exciting as it feels they should be, but that won’t make it short on entertainment. Manchester City enter the match looking to rebound from their stunning (and their fans would probably classify it as "embarrassing," given the level of play they're used to) loss to rivals United. They will be desperate to get back to winning ways, with the gap between them and title rivals Liverpool growing wider and wider, so much so that many believe they have already reached the point of no return. Arsenal will enter the match looking for something, anything, to hold onto in the midst of another disappointing, messy season. It will be an extremely tall task, but if there's good news for the Gunners, it's that their last 5 days was the first real positive stretch since...I don't know, September? Under interim manager Freddie Ljunberg, they finally registered a Premier League win (their first in two months) on Sunday, and on Thursday clinched their Europa League group with a late rally to avoid defeat (and humiliation) against Standard Liége. I still expect City to be too good to topple in this case, but one thing's for certain: with two of the most attack-minded and defensively inconsistent teams in the league, expect lots of goals.

The Pick: Manchester City, 5-3

Premier League Predictions, Week 16

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