Premier League Predictions, Week 12

Welcome back to your weekly Premier League predictions! We're back to domestic league action after the midweek excitement of Champions League and Europa League play. And boy, do we have some domestic league action on the docket for you. Earlier today, the two last-placed teams in the league played, and though that's probably the opposite of exciting in your opinion, it indicates the theme for this weekend: closely ranked teams playing against each other.

Speaking of themes, a positive theme is emerging for my prediction: "mostly correct"! I had a wonderful start to my slate, winning the first four and getting the Liverpool-Aston Villa dead on (I mean, my analysis even projected "another nervy road win"). But unfortunately, my dream of a perfect weekend was ruined once again by my lack of confidence in Leicester City, who picked up an impressive win over Crystal Palace. This takes me to a reasonable 25/35 on the season.

Now, the matches are less than 12 hours away from starting, so let's not waste any more time boasting before my fall. Here are your 5 for Week 12!

Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace

Chelsea have been absolutely red-hot, winning 8 of their last 9 matches in all competitions, but between a closer-than-expected finish against Watford last week, and a wild draw at home vs. Ajax on Wednesday, you do get the sense that the train may be close to running out of steam. Crystal Palace, despite dropping their last match to Leicester, has shown they're capable of taking advantage of bigger teams when they least expect it. Still, with the home crowd behind them, I'll go with the Blues' mojo to continue at least one more week.

The Pick: Chelsea, 2-1

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Sheffield United

A side right outside the Top 5 will be looking to take a serious step forward towards competing for the Top 4. Their opponent is a mid-table club on the bottom half of the standings, closer to the relegation zone than to the Champions League places. None of that on the surface is surprising; what's surprising is that the former is Sheffield United, while the 2nd team being described is Tottenham. Sheffield have played incredibly impressive and well-managed football in their first year in the Premier League, and are more than capable of stealing points off of an inexplicably hapless Spurs side. I have no reason to have confidence in this Tottenham club right now, but I'll pick the home side who's desperate for a W to narrowly win this.

The Pick: Tottenham Hotspur, 1-0

Leicester City vs. Arsenal

I finally got the memo on Arsenal, and have correctly projected them dropping points the last couple weeks, though it would have seemed unlikely given the names on the teamsheets. It's time for me to get the memo on Leicester, too; I've undervalued them the last several prediction pieces. Not anymore. The Foxes are going to win this one not just because Arsenal seem incapable of killing off games, but because they're honestly just the better team right now.

The Pick: Leicester City, 4-2

Manchester United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Manchester United, sitting at 10th place in the table, finally makes a return to the Premier League Predictions after an extended absence. All it took was 4 of the Top 5 playing each other to open up space for another match! Man U has been almost as confounding as Arsenal this year; the Red Devils have beaten Leicester and Chelsea, and drawn Arsenal and Liverpool, giving the latter their only non-win of the season thus far. Apart from those matches against the Top 5, however, they have dropped points against every single opponent they've played except for last-place Norwich City. In short, United have underachieved against seemingly inferior opponents, and their upcoming opponent have spent the majority of this season overachieving. Especially with how tight Brighton likes to play, it's not exactly a recipe for success for the hosts in Manchester.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Liverpool vs. Manchester City

This isn't just the matchup of the weekend, it's the matchup of the season. And the English FA know it: this match is the last one of the week, and has its own time slot Sunday evening. If you pay attention to club football, you know why this one is huge. It's not just the defending champions visiting the defending runners-up. It's not just the current first-placed team hosting the current second-placed team. It's the defending champions of England against the defending champions of Europe. It's two of the best teams in the entire World!

And, perhaps appropriately, I have no idea what will happen. Liverpool is the favorite here, and being honest, should win. They've been the better team this season, currently leading the field by 6 points. They're playing at home in Anfield, where they last lost in April of 2017. They're healthier, too; nearly all of City's back line, including their starting keeper is out injured or will be just returning from injury. And yet....I can't shake the feeling that something won't go to plan here. This is Manchester City, after all. Many clubs would dream of having the players that sit on City's bench. What they've shown over the last 2-3 years is, when they genuinely care to win, they typically do so. There's no doubt how much they'd love to spoil Liverpool's ascendancy once more; Pep Guardiola openly admitted after this fixture last year that City's entire gameplan was to not play their typically progressive football, but rather, stifle Liverpool's possession and hope for a draw. Given that the Reds have shown a tendency over the last season and a half to play a little tight in these massive matches, be it nerves or too much respect for their opponent, and that the Citizens will likely view having a shorthanded side share the points on the road as a good result, I think we may see a draw once more.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Premier League Predictions, Week 12

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