2019 Emmy Predictions
Tonight, the 71st Emmy Awards take place! We at The Couch will be watching as invested-- if only partially informed --viewers, start to finish.
It will be an interesting night, with several awards-heavy shows seeing the stage one last time. Game of Thrones and Veep are two shows whose conclusions are particularly noteworthy, but they're not alone, as other past recognized programs like Big Bang Theory, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Jane The Virgin, and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt also wrapped up proceedings earlier this year. To add to the entertainment-- or will it? --FOX is following the lead of this year's Oscar ceremony and is forgoing having a host for the night. Which means...more banal presenter banter off of a teleprompter script! Yay!
Sierra and Daniel have put together an Emmy prediction and analysis piece for you, with added picks from Christian, one of our pop culture gurus. But, for those of you that are not aware, there is a TON of television out there. So, though this will mimic similar preview pieces we've done on Grammy and Oscar shows of the past, with "Will Win" and "Should Win" offerings as well, we apologize in advance for any instances of us being out of the loop on a show you may know and love more than we do. Now, enough caveat, let's get these award predictions rollin'!
WRITING
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Alec Berg and Bill Hader, Barry ("ronny/lilly")
Allison Silverman, Russian Doll ("A Warm Body")
David Mandel, Veep ("Veep")
Josh Siegal and Dylan Morgan, The Good Place ("Janet(s)")
Maya Erskine, Anna Konkle, and Stacey Osei-Kuffour, PEN15 ("Anna Ishii-Peters")
Natasha Lyonne, Leslye Headland, and Amy Poehler, Russian Doll ("Nothing In This World Is Easy")
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag ("Episode 2.1")
Will Win
Christian: Phoebe Waller-Bridge
Sierra: Phoebe Waller-Bridge
Daniel: Phoebe Waller-Bridge
Could Win:
Christian: David Mandel
Sierra: David Mandel
Daniel: David Mandel OR Alec Berg and Bill Hader
Should Win:
Christian: Natasha Lyonne, Leslye Headland, and Amy Poehler
Sierra: Alec Berg and Bill Hader
Daniel: Josh Siegal and Dylan Morgan
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: Aline Brosh McKenna and Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend ("I'm In Love")
Daniel: Robert Carlock and Tina Fey, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt ("Kimmy Says Bye!")
Thoughts?
Sierra: I'm guessing Crazy Ex-Girlfriend counts as a Comedy? Its series finale deserved a nomination. Also there's no love for The Other Two and What We Do In The Shadows, which is sad. All that said, I really really really really want ‘rony/lilly’ to win everything it was nominated for because it is one of the greatest episodes in television history I’ve ever watched!
Daniel: "rony/lilly" was the buzziest standalone episode of the year, and Veep was the buzziest series finale of the year, so don't be surprised if either of those take the prize. But Fleabag's 2nd season was the buzziest SHOW of the year, and (spoiler alert!!) because I think it will miss out on some of the bigger General awards, I expect this is where the Academy will reward Waller-Bridge. In terms of just the writing, and not the overall quality of the episode? I'd love to see the perpetually witty and original Good Place get belated recognition. As for who was snubbed, I'll go with a different series finale from Sierra's selection: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt had a choppy final season, but its last episode was fittingly sweet, strange and hilarious.
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Bruce Miller and Kira Snyder, The Handmaid's Tale ("Holly")
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, Game of Thrones ("The Iron Throne")
Emerald Funnell, Killing Eve, ("Nice and Neat")
Jed Mercurio, Bodyguard ("Episode 1")
Jesse Armstrong, Succession ("Nobody Is Ever Missing")
Peter Gould and Thomas Schnauz, Better Call Saul ("The Winner")
Will Win
Christian: Jesse Armstrong
Sierra: Jesse Armstrong
Daniel: David Benioff and D.B. Weiss
Could Win:
Christian: Emerald Funnell
Sierra: David Benioff and D.B. Weiss
Daniel: Peter Gould and Thomas Schnauz
Should Win:
Christian: Jesse Armstrong
Sierra: Emerald Funnell
Daniel: Anybody but Benioff and Weiss
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: Roberto Aguirre-Sacasa & Michael Grassi, Riverdale ("Chapter Fifty-Seven: Survive The Night")
Daniel: Elisabeth R. Finch, Grey's Anatomy ("Silent All These Years")
Thoughts?
Sierra: I really don't watch much Drama. I'm guessing on pretty much all of these.
Daniel: Yeah, I confess I have seen none of these episodes, so I'll be "cheering" for what was the most critically lauded of the bunch. I'll be pretty surprised to see anything other than the Game of Thrones finale winning, just by virtue of it being Game of Thrones. I'd hate to see an episode that was thoroughly decried by its fanbase and many critics get top honors.
ACTING
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Comedy Series
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method ("Chapter Two/An Agent Grieves")
Anthony Carrigan, Barry ("Past = Present x Future Over Yesterday")
Henry Winkler, Barry ("What?!")
Stephen Root, Barry ("berkman > block")
Tony Hale, Veep ("Veep")
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel ("We're Going To The Catskills!")
Will Win
Christian: Henry Winkler
Sierra: Henry Winkler
Daniel: Tony Shalhoub
Could Win:
Christian: Tony Shalhoub
Sierra: Alan Arkin
Daniel: Alan Arkin
Should Win:
Christian: Henry Winkler
Sierra: Anthony Carrigan
Daniel: Anthony Carrigan
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: Matt Berry, What We Do In The Shadows
Daniel: Daniel Levy, Schitt's Creek
Thoughts?
Daniel: The critical consensus seems to be that Shalhoub will beat out the incumbent Henry Winkler. Barry is a remarkable show, and, while Winkler and Stephen Root are both delightful, Anthony Carrigan is the funniest character in the series. The particular episode that he's nominated for made me laugh harder than anything else on TV this year. But man, you could fill a book with guys who were snubbed in this category. About four different Saturday Night Live cast members, for starters. Andre Braugher and Joe Lo Truglio of Brooklyn Nine-Nine, the latter of which I shouted out last year. Chris Elliot, the titular Roland Schitt in Schitt's Creek, or Manny Jacinto of The Good Place, or Jaime Camil of Jane The Virgin, or Titus Burgess of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, etc., etc. Ideally, Elliot's castmate Daniel Levy would have joined his dad as an acting nominee for the hilarious Schitt's Creek.
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Drama Series
Alfie Allen, Game of Thrones ("Chapter Four: Will The Wise")
Chris Sullivan, This Is Us ("Toby")
Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul ("Piñata")
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul ("Winner")
Michael Kelly, House of Cards ("Chapter 73")
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game Of Thrones ("A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms")
Peter Dinklage, Game Of Thrones ("The Iron Throne")
Will Win
Christian: Peter Dinklage
Sierra: Nikolaj Coster-Waldeau
Daniel: Peter Dinklage
Could Win:
Christian: Jonathan Banks
Sierra: Michael Kelly
Daniel: Jonathan Banks
Should Win:
Christian: Peter Dinklage
Sierra: Eh.
Daniel: Chris Sullivan
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: Eh.
Daniel: Kieran Culkin, Succession
Thoughts?
Sierra: Lol I've never seen a single episode of any of the shows these nominees are in.
Daniel: My exposure to the Drama shows is also pretty limited, but my pick here would be Sullivan, who has successfully won me over by transforming Toby from an obnoxious presence in the early seasons to one of my favorite characters on This Is Us presently.
Game Of Thrones has a 50% chance that one of its supporting actors will be sitting on the Iron Emmy Throne.
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel ("Vote For Kennedy, Vote For Kennedy")
Anna Chlumsky, Veep ("Pledge")
Betty Gilpin, GLOW ("Mother Of All Matches")
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live ("Liev Schreiber/Li'l Wayne")
Marin Hinkle, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel ("Simone")
Olivia Colman, Fleabag ("Episode 2.4")
Sarah Goldberg, Barry ("The Audition")
Sian Clifford, Fleabag ("Episode 2.3")
Will Win
Christian: Alex Borstein
Sierra: Olivia Colman
Daniel: Olivia Colman
Could Win:
Christian: Olivia Colman
Sierra: Alex Borstein
Daniel: Alex Borstein
Should Win:
Christian: Anna Chlumsky
Sierra: Betty Gilpin
Daniel: Olivia Colman
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: Natasia Demetriou, What We Do In The Shadows
Daniel: Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live
Thoughts?
Sierra: Still no love for What We Do In the Shadows. Sad.
Daniel: WHAT IS IT GOING TO TAKE TO GET CECILY STRONG NOMINATED FOR THIS AWARD? The Matt Damon episode alone should have won her the Emmy. Whatever. I love Kate, and like Sarah Goldberg, but I want Olivia to win. I expect she just might ride a post-Oscar bump to victory.
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Drama Series
Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve ("Nice and Neat")
Gwendoline Christie, Game Of Thrones ("A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms")
Julia Garner, Ozark ("The Gold Coast")
Lena Headey, Game Of Thrones ("The Bells")
Maisie Williams, Game Of Thrones ("The Long Night")
Sophie Turner, Game Of Thrones ("Winterfell")
Will Win
Christian: Maisie Williams
Sierra: Lena Headey
Daniel: Julia Garner
Could Win:
Christian: Julia Garner
Sierra: Fiona Shaw
Daniel: Maisie Williams
Should Win:
Christian: Fiona Shaw
Sierra: No clue.
Daniel: Gwendoline Christie
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: Same.
Daniel: Susan Kelechi Watson, This Is Us
Thoughts?
Sierra: Never watched any of these either, whoops.
Daniel: I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the Game of Thrones actresses win, but most seem to think it will be one of the two young nominees in this field. If it is to be a GOT actress, I'll be pulling for Christie, who entered herself for contention since HBO wouldn't do so. But, and I cannot stress this enough, Susan Kelechi Watson is being slept on in a major way.
Outstanding Actor for a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish ("Purple Rain")
Bill Hader, Barry ("The Truth Has A Ring To It")
Don Cheadle, Black Monday ("365")
Eugene Levy, Schitt's Creek ("Rock On!")
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method ("Chapter One: An Actor Avoids")
Ted Danson, The Good Place ("The Worst Possible Use Of Free Will")
Will Win
Christian: Bill Hader
Sierra: Bill Hader
Daniel: Bill Hader
Could Win:
Christian: Michael Douglas
Sierra: Ted Danson
Daniel: Michael Douglas
Should Win:
Christian: Bill Hader
Sierra: Ted Danson
Daniel: Bill Hader
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: Kayvan Novak, What We Do In The Shadows
Daniel: Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Thoughts?
Sierra: Do I even need to say it?
Daniel: Once you get to the general awards, incumbency tends to rule the day, and that's likely what is resulting in 2018 winner Bill Hader being the overwhelming favorite to repeat in this category. But that's not to say he doesn't deserve it; his versatility in the lead role is incredible. I'd also be happy for Eugene Levy, even though he probably does the least impressive acting in the cast of Schitt's Creek, and would be delighted for Ted Danson, who is so enjoyable in The Good Place.
Outstanding Actor for a Drama Series
Billy Porter, Pose ("Love Is The Message")
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul ("Winner")
Jason Bateman, Ozark ("Reparations")
Kit Harington, Game Of Thrones ("The Iron Throne")
Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us ("Sometimes")
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us ("R & B")
Will Win
Christian: Billy Porter
Sierra: Sterling K. Brown
Daniel: Bob Odenkirk
Could Win:
Christian: Kit Harington
Sierra: Kit Harington
Daniel: Billy Porter
Should Win:
Christian: Billy Porter
Sierra: Billy Porter
Daniel: Billy Porter
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: (shrugs)
Daniel: Jeremy Strong, Succession
Thoughts?
Sierra: Once again have not seen a single one of these shows, omg what am I doing with my time?!
Daniel: Since Matthew Rhys won last year (which was the best moment of the 2018 Emmys), and The Americans is sadly finished, there's no real incumbent. In that void, I wouldn't be surprised to see them give some sort of career recognition to Bob Odenkirk, but Billy Porter has generated a significant amount of buzz, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him onstage.
Outstanding Actress for a Comedy Series
Catherine O'Hara, Schitt's Creek ("The Crowening")
Christina Applegate, Dead To Me ("I've Gotta Get Away")
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep ("Veep")
Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll ("Nothing In This World Is Easy")
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag ("Episode 2.1")
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel ("Midnight At The Concord")
Will Win
Christian: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Sierra: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Daniel: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Could Win:
Christian: Phoebe Waller-Bridge
Sierra: Catherine O'Hara
Daniel: Rachel Brosnahan OR Phoebe Waller-Bridge
Should Win:
Christian: Natasha Lyonne
Sierra: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Daniel: Catherine O'Hara
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Daniel: Gina Rodriguez, Jane The Virgin
Thoughts?
Sierra: Veep was great, but Rachel Bloom continues to get overlooked year after year.
Daniel: Catherine O'Hara has deserved this award for 4 years, so I'm just relieved that she FINALLY was at least nominated. Unfortunately, she won't win, as she's up against one of the most intriguing three-horse races of the night. Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Veep are absolute powerhouses, and just finished their series to much acclaim. Normally, that'd be a recipe for a shoo-in-- and I do think they'll ultimately give it to JLD --but she meets the 2018 winner Rachel Brosnahan, and social media darling Phoebe Waller-Bridge, any one of which could reasonably expect to win.
Will Selina Meyer win the Best Comedy Actress re-election? Our poll has her in the lead.
Outstanding Actress for a Drama Series
Emilia Clarke, Game Of Thrones ("The Last Of The Starks")
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve ("I Hope you Like Missionary!")
Laura Linney, Ozark ("One Way Out")
Mandy Moore, This Is Us ("The Graduates")
Robin Wright, House Of Cards ("Chapter 70")
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve ("You're Mine")
Viola Davis, How To Get Away With Murder ("He Betrayed Us Both")
Will Win
Christian: Sandra Oh
Sierra: Sandra Oh
Daniel: Sandra Oh
Could Win:
Christian: Jodie Comer
Sierra: Jodie Comer
Daniel: Jodie Comer
Should Win:
Christian: Sandra Oh
Sierra: Viola Davis, by default
Daniel: Robin Wright
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: (Shrug)
Daniel: Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Thoughts?
Sierra: I begrudgingly watch How To Get Away With Murder, which hasn’t seen good since Season 1, and other than that I'm pretty out of the loop with these.
Daniel: How has Mandy Moore been nominated for This Is Us before Susan Kelechi Watson? There is just no justice in this world. Anyways, with no Claire Foy or Elisabeth Moss in the mix this year, the race is seemingly wide open. But, it will be a shock if it's anybody from a show not named Killing Eve.
GENERAL
Outstanding Variety Talk Series
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Will Win
Christian: Last Week Tonight
Sierra: Late Late Show with James Corden
Daniel: Last Week Tonight
Could Win:
Christian: Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Sierra: Last Week Tonight
Daniel: Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Should Win:
Christian: Last Week Tonight
Sierra: Full Frontal
Daniel: Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: Was anyone NOT nominated for this? They should have just nominated every show
Daniel: Late Night with Seth Meyers
Thoughts?
Sierra: Do people even watch these shows? I expect my enemy James Corden will win this award.
Daniel: It's pretty lazy for the Emmys to just nominate literally the exact same field as last year. I know people have very mixed feelings about Jimmy Fallon, but The Tonight Show has been one of the biggest shows on television for a while now, and Late Night with Seth Meyers has been sneakily good for some time, too. That said, given their propensity to stick with the status quo, I expect John Oliver to make it a four-peat.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Barry (HBO)
Fleabag (Amazon Prime)
The Good Place (NBC)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon Prime)
Russian Doll (Netflix)
Schitt's Creek (Pop TV)
Veep (HBO)
Will Win
Christian: Veep
Sierra: Veep
Daniel: Veep
Could Win:
Christian: Fleabag
Sierra: Fleabag
Daniel: Fleabag OR The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Should Win:
Christian: Barry
Sierra: Veep
Daniel: Barry
Should Have Been Here:
Christian:
Sierra: What We Do In The Shadows
Daniel: Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Thoughts?
Sierra: Not even gonna say it...
Daniel: This may be the race of the night. Barry is one of the most acclaimed shows of the year, and, should HBO concert its efforts on a new contender, might be tipped to win. Yet, its HBO counterpart Veep is a 3-time winner and just wrapped its series, we have the most talked-about show of 2019 in Fleabag, and oh by the way, none of those shows won last year because The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel did. I think Veep will be the big winner on the night, but there's seriously about 4 different directions this award could go. Also: since my plea for The Good Place and Schitt's Creek FINALLY got some overdue notice, I'm going to hope to strike that magic again next year and see Brooklyn Nine-Nine among the nominees.
Fleabag was easily the most discussed show of the last year, but it will have to beat out some stiff competition to win Best Comedy Series.
Outstanding Drama Series
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Bodyguard (Netflix)
Game Of Thrones (HBO)
Killing Eve (BBC America)
Ozark (Netflix)
Pose (FX)
Succession (HBO)
This Is Us (NBC)
Will Win
Christian: Game Of Thrones
Sierra: Game Of Thrones
Daniel: Game Of Thrones
Could Win:
Christian: Succession
Sierra: Succession
Daniel: Better Call Saul
Should Win:
Christian: Succession
Sierra: ...
Daniel: Succession
Should Have Been Here:
Sierra: No love for Riverdale!
Daniel: Homecoming
Thoughts?
Sierra: I DON'T KNOW DRAMA I'M SORRY
Daniel: This category feels so empty without The Americans. Not that it ever won anyway, but, you know. Anyways, despite an extremely mixed reception from just about everyone, Game of Thrones will undoubtedly sashay away with the last prize of the night yet again.
PARTING THOUGHTS
Sierra: I watch so much television but none of it is “Emmy Nominated” television. So I don’t really keep up with any of this stuff. That said, if I win predictions it’s MY UNDENIABLE INTELLIGENCE AND INTUITION.
The Survivor cinematography was noticeably next level these past seasons so I am bummed that they lost to Life Below Zero. Also RaMell Ross was robbed AGAIN, for his exceptional merit in documentary filmmaking!
Daniel: I, too, am simultaneously watching the most television I've ever watched and yet am somehow viewing about 10% of the Emmy-nominated programs. I guess this is the impetus I need to binge more Drama shows, since most everything I watch these days is Comedy. As a result, I've found myself much more upset about Comedy snubs than potential Drama snubs. But in my defense, it took SO LONG for the Academy to recognize The Good Place and Schitt's Creek.
I will consider this night a success if the ceremony is still enjoyable and funny without a host (since monologues are typically my favorite part), and someone other than Game of Thrones and Veep wins all the major awards. I don't have anything against those shows, I'm just tired of monotony. Come on, Fleabag and Succession do it for all the underdogs out there!