Champions League Predictions: Quarterfinals, Leg 1
After several months of spitting out weekly predictions for England's domestic league, it occurred to me that I could be generating the same analysis for club soccer's premier tournament: the Champions League.
I promise I have been following the tournament from the start and am not just now turning into the tournament. In case you are doing just that, though, a quick rundown on what you've missed:
Defending runners-up Liverpool needed late Mo Salah magic and a miracle save from Alisson to just progress out of the group stage, then followed up a dud by stunning German titans Bayern Munich in the Allianz Arena
Tottenham relied on a huge comeback against Barcelona and a capitulation by Inter Milan to eke out a berth in the knockout stages, where they stomped German leaders Borussia Dortmund
Porto rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the 2nd leg to upset Roma and clinch their first quarterfinal berth in 5 years
Manchester United rallied from a 2-0 deficit on the road to stun Paris Saint-Germain in the final minute
Juventus rallied from a 2-0 deficit to beat Atlético Madrid behind a Ronaldo hat-trick
Manchester City's road to the final eight was littered with rose petals and scented lotions, and of course...
THE DEFENDING CHAMPIONS ARE OUT. Real Madrid were shocked at home by a rampant Ajax side, and there will be no four-peat.
Now, to this week's slate of games:
Liverpool vs. Porto
Porto will no doubt be reminded nonstop of their run-in with Liverpool in this tournament last year. In the first leg of the Round of 16 last year, the Reds came in to Portugal and shellacked the hosts 5-0 to essentially clinch the tie. It's a precedent that will likely serve Porto better than Liverpool this time around, as they will be motivated to continue their good form in this tournament and reverse the fortune of the 2018 tie. I do think Liverpool gets the win under the lights at Anfield, but I expect more of a dogfight than they're used to.
The Pick: Liverpool, 1-0
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester City
Manchester City have been the beneficiaries of an easy draw in just about every tournament they've played in. So what's their stiff test now in the quarterfinals? The current 4th-placed team in the league they're likely to win. Yeesh. Saltiness aside, I do think this will be a wildly entertaining tie. It wouldn't surprise me to see Tottenham emulating Liverpool of last year: get enough domestic results to stay in the Top 4, and otherwise focus all efforts in a Champions League run. If that comparison is to stay consistent, they'll get a big win over City to open up the tie. In the first Champions League match in their new stadium, I think it might just happen.
The Pick: Tottenham, 3-1
Ajax vs. Juventus
Ajax is one of the best stories in football at the moment. They're young, they're local, and they're playing inspired fútbol, both domestically and internationally. Their romp at the Bernabéu was no fluke: the Dutch side are not to be taken lightly. That said, this is a new beast. Juventus are known for their airtight backline and precise midfield, and they've now added one of the greatest Champions League players ever in Ronaldo up top. I think Ajax turns in a lively performance at the Amsterdam Arena, but to beat Juventus is too tall an order.
The Pick: Juventus, 2-1
Manchester United vs. Barcelona
Manchester United is back in the Champions League quarterfinals for the first time since playing in the 2011 Final, though it seemed like there was no shot of them making it to this stage. After pulling out an extraordinary escape against PSG, they gained the reward of facing the team that beat them in that 2011 Final, Spanish giants Barcelona. Can United continue their exciting run against what is likely the best team in the World? Probably not. Can they play with enough energy and grit to at least hold them to a draw at Old Trafford? I think so.
The Pick: Draw, 0-0