Best Bets: Super Bowl Edition!
The Super Bowl is finally here! I’m back after a week off from football to break down the most prestigious game in all of sports. New England survived a scare against Jacksonville in the AFC Championship behind an all-time performance from Tom Brady and Danny Amendola, while Philadelphia blew out the Vikings in the NFC Championship, thanks to arguably the best defense in the NFL and an unexpectedly reliable performance from Nick Foles. The Patriots and Eagles are the two best teams in the league and present a fascinating matchup for bettors. In addition, there are hundreds of prop bets for bettors to select, unlike any other game during the season. As always, odds are courtesy of Bovada (as of 2/1/2018).
Super Bowl: Eagles vs. Patriots (-4.5)
The Eagles have been underdogs in every game during the postseason, as they’ve played without Carson Wentz, the likely MVP before he was injured. They have a deep, versatile defense that has been able to adapt each week to put them in a position to win. New England will give them the toughest challenge yet with the top ranked offense by DVOA. Philadelphia has the means to contain the Patriots’ rushing offense with their strong front seven; behind all-pro DT Fletcher Cox, the Eagles’ defensive line is first in adjusted line yards (a measure of a line’s impact in the rushing game), according to Football Outsiders. The Eagles rely on frequent defensive substitutions to keep their players fresh, so Tom Brady will likely rely on a no-huddle, short passing game to keep them off guard. Rob Gronkowski will have to play a large part in New England’s offensive success as well; he’s obviously a mismatch for any defense, but the Eagles have been mediocre in tight end coverage this season, ranking 17th in DVOA against tight ends. Gronk has been cleared from concussion protocol after suffering a blow to the head in the Patriots win over the Jaguars, so he’ll likely suit up on Sunday. When the Eagles have the ball, they’ll have to rely on their rushing attack to take advantage of New England’s poor rushing defense. Philadelphia has three running backs in Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement that present a different threat to the Patriots defense. The Eagles will likely rotate them within specific situations to keep them fresh throughout the game which will exploit the Patriots’ thin front seven. However, the game will likely come down to whether Nick Foles can protect the ball on offense and whether they can stop Brady’s “dink-and-dunk” passing on defense. Foles can limit turnovers when he has help, so with the Eagles’ prolific offense line and deep running back corps, Philadelphia should keep up with the Patriots on offense, but whether they can beat Brady on defense is another story. The line opened at six and has been steadily bet down by sharp bettors on the Eagles’ side. The sharps seem to believe that this game will be close, regardless of the winner, and the matchups demonstrate that as well. Expect the Eagles to hang with the Patriots long enough for the game to be decided on the final few drives, one way or another.
Pick: Eagles +4.5
Prop Bets: No Super Bowl preview would be complete without some prop bet picks, so I’ve sifted through the hundreds of potential bets to find my favorites.
Prop #1 & 2: The Patriots have been to seven Super Bowls in the Belichick-Brady era, but not once have they scored in the first quarter. Bettors can take advantage by betting the Eagles to score first (+110) and the Patriots to punt before they score (-130)
Prop #3: Each team possesses certain advantages over the other, which will likely result in a close game throughout. The largest lead total seems high at 13, so take the under at even odds.
Prop #4: Even though the Patriots have never scored in the first quarter of a Super Bowl with Tom Brady as their quarterback, they have been much better offensively in the fourth quarter. Brady has thrown for a touchdown in 4 of the 7 games, and I’m picking him to do it again Sunday at -115 odds.
Prop #5: Assuming the Eagles will try to take advantage of the Patriots 30th ranked rushing defense by DVOA, bettors should pick Philadelphia to score a rushing touchdown at -150 odds.
Prop #6: A quick Google images search on the words “Gatorade shower” shows many pictures of unfortunate coaches, mostly having orange liquid poured over their heads. At +300 odds, orange is the best bet for the Gatorade shower prop.
Prop #7: Although I have the Eagles covering the spread, the Patriots are more likely to win. However, New England relies enough on Tom Brady that he’ll have to have an MVP-like performance. Take Tom Brady to win Super Bowl MVP at -110 odds.
Last Week: 3-1
NFL Playoff Record: 6-4
Overall: 15-17-1
Bonus: 5-3