2018 Grammy Predictions
Tonight, the 60th Grammys Ceremony commence! For the first time in 15 years, the ceremonies will be held in New York City rather than L.A. I wrote this last year and it's still true:
"Though the awards have often been besotted by criticisms of valuing commercial success over critically acclaimed music (criticisms I find valid, for what it’s worth), the show remains the premier music awards show. And, though they often evade glory, many wonderful and deserving artists and bands are typically nominees, and that is no different this year. If you want to read a full preview, I basically already did that, so read that here!"
In addition, if you’re curious about all the nominees, you can find them listed nicely here. But this is devoted to my best guess as to what will win. I’m not guaranteeing a high success rate because, let’s be honest, who knows what will win? Sometimes they give it to Outkast. Sometimes they give it to Robert Plant and Allison Krauss. Sometimes they give it to Beck. Other times they give it to Taylor Swift, and Adele. All I can do is try! Here goes:
GENRE
Best Music Video
“1-800-273-8255" - Logic feat. Alessia Cara and Khalid (Andy Hines, director)
“Humble” - Kendrick Lamar ('The Little Homies' and Dave Meyers, co-directors)
“Makeba” - Jain (Lionel Hirle & Gregory Ohrel, co-directors)
“The Story Of O.J.” - Jay-Z (Jay-Z and Mark Romanek, co-directors)
“Up All Night” - Beck (Canada, director)
Will Win: “1-800-273-8255"
Could Win: “HUMBLE.”
Should Win: “HUMBLE.”
Anything BUT: “Up All Night”
Heads aflame is a reference to the movie Ghost Rider. "HUMBLE." is a track calling out, among other things, rappers that rely on 'ghost writers.' SYMBOLISM. DAMN.
This is an underrated category every year, especially as video media becomes increasingly relevant in being partnered with music. All these videos are worth a watch, but Beck's "Up All Night", while entertaining is the only one that doesn't really push any production or choreographic envelopes. I think "1-800" might get the vote here due to its profound message; it's hard to watch that video and not feel moved, or empathetic towards the subject material. If it helps save lives, I don't mind it winning a Grammy at all. That being said, if we're talking purely production, cinematography and thematic material, "HUMBLE." wins in a landslide.
Best Urban Contemporary Album
Free 6lack – 6lack
"Awaken, My Love!" – Childish Gambino
American Teen – Khalid
Ctrl – SZA
Starboy – The Weeknd
Will Win: "Awaken, My Love!"
Could Win: Starboy
Should Win: Ctrl
Anything BUT: Starboy
With Childish Gambino also being nominated for Album Of The Year, you have to imagine his is the favorite for Best Urban Contemporary Album. But man, there is some good stuff in this category every year, and this year is no different. Considering The Weeknd took home this award just 2 years ago, and Starboy was just about as big as its predecessor, there's certainly a decent chance he snags it this year, too. Ideally, though, this would go to newbie SZA, whose debut album Ctrl was one of the most acclaimed albums of the year.
Best Alternative Album
Everything Now – Arcade Fire
Humanz – Gorillaz
American Dream – LCD Soundsystem
Pure Comedy – Father John Misty
Sleep Well Beast – The National
Will Win: Everything Now
Could Win: American Dream
Should Win: Sleep Well Beast
Anything BUT: Everything Now
Holy cow, what a set of nominees. Father John Misty has exploded onto the indie music scene, and the other 4 nominees have long been considered to be making some of the best music out there. I'll admit, I've only heard snippets from the first 3's work; but still, though I like/love those 3, particularly Gorillaz, I'm partial to Sleep Well Beast. The National's deepest, most exploratory work in a long while should have seen more nominations, methinks. As great as Arcade Fire is, they're a little past their prime, so it'd be a shame to see them beat out some of the fresher material they're up against. That being said, expect it to happen based on name recognition alone.
Best Vocal Pop Album
Kaleidoscope (EP) – Coldplay
Lust for Life – Lana Del Rey
Evolve – Imagine Dragons
Rainbow – Kesha
Joanne – Lady Gaga
÷ – Ed Sheeran
Will Win: ÷
Could Win: Rainbow
Should Win: Lust For Life
Anything BUT: Evolve
What an interesting category for me. I don't like Ed Sheeran, but recognize he easily had the biggest pop album of the year. I know Coldplay isn't the most talented of the bunch, but they're my favorite; they also had the best work of the nominees that I've heard, but it feels weird that a 6-song EP would win this award. Lady Gaga's the most talented of the crew, but Joanne wasn't her best. I don't like Kesha the artist quite as much as Kesha the person, but have read rave reviews about Rainbow (say that 5 times fast). So I'll split the difference and cheer for Lust For Life. I've only heard a couple tracks from it, but Lana has been making some of the most compelling pop music the last few years, on the back of an extraordinarily unique voice. All of this is moot, though, as surely Ed will sweep all the Pop awards on the back of a titanic 2017.
Yes, Ed. You found a Grammy, and it looks perfect.
Best Rap Song
"Bounce Back" – Big Sean
"Bodak Yellow" – Cardi B
"4:44" – Jay-Z
"HUMBLE." – Kendrick Lamar
"Bad and Boujee" – Migos featuring Lil Uzi Vert
Will Win: "4:44"
Could Win: "Bodak Yellow" OR "HUMBLE."
Should Win: "4:44"
Anything BUT: "Bounce Back"
This is the only genre wherein I'm predicting a Song award, and it's because I genuinely can not wait to find out who wins. What a field. "Bad And Boujee" and "Bodak Yellow" absolutely ruled the year in rap, and both could feasibly win here (though I'd give the inside track to "Bodak Yellow", due to its relative recency, and Cardi B's 'now' factor). "HUMBLE." was the biggest song from the best Rap album of the year, by the best rapper in the game right now. And "4:44", quite simply, was the best song of the bunch. It should win, and considering it's also up for Song Of The Year, very well might. The real takeaway here is that if "Bounce Back" wins, you have my permission to shatter your TV into a thousand pieces.
Best Rap Album
4:44 – Jay-Z
DAMN. – Kendrick Lamar
Culture – Migos
Laila's Wisdom – Rapsody
Flower Boy – Tyler, the Creator
Will Win: DAMN.
Could Win: 4:44
Should Win: DAMN.
Anything BUT: Culture
It's not often all eyes are on the Best Rap Album category, but tonight that will be the case. Not only is this probably the best field of nominees for any award tonight, it will give a huge indicator on who might take home the biggest prize of them all. Lamar is the presumptive favorite to win Album Of The Year this year, but that expectation will almost surely die out if he can't even win this genre award over Jay-Z. Conversely, an upset by Jay could mean he's a genuine threat to clean up on the major awards tonight.
(By the way, I mean no disrespect to Culture at all, which is an awesome album. It would just be sad if an old rap legend and the modern-day rap legend were both upset by Migos, you know?)
The biggest and best showdown of the night!
GENERAL
Best New Artist
Alessia Cara
Khalid
Lil Uzi Vert
Julia Michaels
SZA
Will Win: Alessia Cara
Could Win: SZA
Should Win: SZA
Anything BUT: Julia Michaels
Best New Artist has been a terrific category to watch in recent years. There was, of course, the horrific flub of rewarding Meghan Trainor two years ago, but typically, this is one area at least where Country and Rap are both well-represented. Who wins is always such a wildcard (case in point: we went from Macklemore to Sam Smith to Meghan Trainor to Chance The Rapper), so I'll play it safe and say Alessia Cara, the biggest name of the bunch and an impressive young talent, wins this time. It could-- and really should --be SZA, who is going to be a musical force to be reckoned with.
Song Of The Year
"Despacito" - Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber
"4:44" - Jay-Z
"Issues" - Julia Michaels
"1-800-273-8255" - Logic feat. Alessia Cara and Khalid
"That's What I Like" - Bruno Mars
Will Win: “1-800-273-8255"
Could Win: “Despacito”
Should Win: “4:44”
Anything BUT: “Issues”
If you're interested, I did a full breakdown of the nominees for this category last week. As I stated there (and earlier in this article), I expect the wonderful message and impact of "1-800" will transcend the song's musical shortcomings in the eyes of voters, and earn it the award. However, especially if it doesn't win Record Of The Year, don't be surprised if Latin megahit "Despacito" takes this, or if Bruno wins it for his catchy hit. I fear "4:44" doesn't stand a chance, which is a shame because it's the only one of the bunch that was genuinely one of the best individual songs of the year. And to me, Julia Michaels is this year's Lukas Graham. I know her songwriting has been lauded by many a pop star but good gracious, her voice is annoying.
Record Of The Year
"Redbone" – Childish Gambino
"Despacito" – Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee featuring Justin Bieber
"The Story of O.J." – Jay-Z
"HUMBLE." – Kendrick Lamar
"24K Magic" – Bruno Mars
Will Win: “Despacito”
Could Win: “HUMBLE.”
Should Win: “Redbone”
Anything BUT: “24K Magic”
I also previewed this one! As explained there, Record Of The Year is essentially more a trophy for the general production of a song. With that in mind, you have to imagine "Despacito", whose masterful production led it to dominate the radio for 4 months, will run away with this one. Don't be shocked if "HUMBLE.", Kendrick's first ever #1 hit, takes this, though, and there's even a possibility "Redbone" could ride a tidal wave of Get Out-inspired love. Though I love Kendrick and Jay, I would be elated to see the funky, brilliantly-produced "Redbone" score the upset here.
Album Of The Year
"Awaken, My Love!" – Childish Gambino
4:44 – Jay-Z
DAMN. – Kendrick Lamar
Melodrama – Lorde
24K Magic – Bruno Mars
Will Win: Melodrama
Could Win: 24K Magic
Should Win: DAMN.
Anything BUT: 24K Magic
As I discussed in my preview of this award (yeah, this one too!), this honestly is a four-horse race, with no real weak link. There are 5 solid nominees, and you could foresee a victory scenario for any of them, really. The Grammys have notably been terrible at recognizing black artists, and Rap especially, but is this the year they finally get 'woke'? Or, does 'woke' in this context mean awarding the only female candidate? Politics aside, DAMN. was both the best-reviewed AND biggest-selling nominee of the pack here, which historically would make it a clear frontrunner. However, given the aforementioned proclivity for shutting out music from, ahem, certain types of artists, I'm not getting my hopes up.
Here's what I think will actually go down. 4:44 will steal enough rap-oriented votes from DAMN. to nullify both of them. Fans of likable, multitalented celebrities could like both Bruno Mars and Donald Glover, and fans of funky tunes could like both Mars' and Childish Gambino's albums. Thus, I could see "Awaken" snagging enough votes to weaken the somewhat similar 24K Magic's push. Splitting the difference is the only album different enough from the others to not be vote-cancelled: Lorde's Melodrama, which was one of the best-reviewed of the year. A Lorde victory, too, would be in line with the recent trend of female pop stars-- well sorry, white female pop stars reigning supreme.
If it doesn't play out that way, expect the intergenerationally-crowd-pleasing Bruno Mars to take home the top prize. It'd be a crying shame, though; not because Mars isn't terrific, and not even because his is the weakest nominee of the group. But because in a year where the Grammys have so many opportunities to finally be brave and award new styles, 24K Magic would be the safest choice imaginable.
Lorde of the Grammys? It's not out of the question.