Best Bets: Divisional Playoffs
One of the best NFL weekends is upon us; the Divisional Round brings us four captivating games that will determine who the true contenders are for the Super Bowl. Last week, I went 4-1, including the National Championship, with the only loss coming from the Jaguars inability to move the ball against the Bills’ mediocre defense. This weekend’s slate of games welcomes the NFL’s best back from their bye week and features much shorter lines, for the most part. As the stakes get higher, I get better (apparently), so I’ll try to keep the streak alive with this week’s picks (all odds courtesy of Bovada as of 1/11/2018).
Falcons vs. Eagles (+3)
This line seems too good to be true. The Falcons, who play their home games indoors, travel to the top-seeded Eagles’ outdoor stadium as the 6th seed and are somehow three-point favorites. The Eagles have the best defense in the league according to DVOA, and even though Carson Wentz is done for the year, they look to be built for tight playoff games. If Nick Foles can limit turnovers and manage the clock, the Eagles ability to slow down the Falcons offense might be the key to winning on Saturday. The public perception is that the Eagles have been terrible on offense without Wentz, getting shutout in the final game of the season against Dallas, while the Falcons are hot coming off last week’s game against Los Angeles. Those reasons don’t seem to be enough to make Atlanta the favorite though, especially when the Eagles’ defense has arguably the best all season. This game has all the symptoms of the trendy underdog that bettors should fade; expect the Eagles to grind out a win despite missing their star QB.
Pick: Eagles + 3
Titans vs. Patriots (-14)
In what will likely be the least interesting game this weekend, the Titans travel to Foxborough after a strange win against the Chiefs. The spread is large for a playoff game; on average, spreads tend to be smaller in the playoffs because teams tend to be closer in true talent and skill levels. This is a rare case in which a great team plays a not-so-great team. However, Tennessee has been fortunate to face two of the worst rushing defenses by DVOA in the league to start the playoffs. Derrick Henry was one of the main reasons the Titans won last week, and he will likely have a big game against the Patriots this week. The Titans have the front seven (led by unsung Pro Bowler Jurrell Casey) to make it difficult for the Patriots to run the ball, too. These matchups will keep this game from being a blowout, even though the coaching and quarterback matchups suggest otherwise. New England will still win this game behind Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but 14 points is a lot to lay in a game where some weaknesses could be exposed for the Patriots.
Pick: Lean Titans +14
Jaguars vs. Steelers (-7.5)
Sunday begins with a rematch of the Jaguars’ statement-making victory in Pittsburgh in week 5. Jacksonville boasts the best passing defense in the NFL and made it difficult for Buffalo to move the ball last week, allowing just 133 passing yards in their win. They return to Pittsburgh to play one of the league’s elite offenses. Antonio Brown is coming off an injury and may not be at full health and Ben Roethlisberger may be starting in his last game in Pittsburgh, but the key to the game for the Steelers will be Le’Veon Bell. Although Jacksonville won their division and their first round playoff game behind an elite passing defense, they’ve had difficulty stopping the run. Bell is the most versatile running back in the league and will create matchup problems for the Jaguars’ defense as they attempt to slow down Pittsburgh’s prolific receiving corps. The best option for bettors would be to wait until the line moves down to 7, as the money will likely come in from the professional handicappers on the Jaguars at 7.5. I’ll reluctantly take the Steelers for the purpose of the column, though.
Pick: Lean Steelers -7.5
Saints vs. Vikings (-4)
The final game of the weekend features another trendy underdog, as New Orleans is receiving over 60% of the bets, according to Sports Insights. The Saints have extended the Drew Brees Era by complementing his passing with arguably the best running back tandem in the NFL. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara led the way for the Saints’ top-rated rushing attack by DVOA this year, but they travel to Minnesota, where one of the NFL’s elite defenses awaits. The Vikings don’t always get the attention for their success on defense that they deserve, but they have one of the deepest units and don’t allow many explosive plays. Minnesota will make the Saints offense uncomfortable, but the key to victory may be whether they can move the ball effectively. Fortunately, the Vikings have shown to have a proficient passing attack behind Case Keenum and one of the most underrated receiving corps in the league. Although the Saints are receiving the majority of the bets, the spread is trending upward – an example of reverse line movement which signals sharp money on the Vikings. Bettors would benefit by taking Minnesota while the spread remains at 4.
Pick: Vikings -4
Last week: 4-1
Overall: 12-14-1
Bonus: 3-3