Best Bets: Week Of 11/17

Another frustrating weekend is in the books for Best Bets; despite the college teaser coming through with big wins from Ohio State and Auburn, injuries to Tyron Smith and Sean Lee derailed the Cowboys, pushing my record to 2-1. This week’s slate of games isn’t particularly exciting from a betting perspective, but there are still games that provide some betting value. To compensate for skipping the bonus section last week, I’m expanding this week’s bonus picks – in part due to the lack of quality football (All odds courtesy of Bovada as of 11/17/2017).

Rams vs. Vikings (-2)

In what appears to be a matchup between inevitable division champions in the NFC, the betting percentage and line moves signal the Vikings as the side the sharp money is on this week. Minnesota has managed a 7-2 record despite having Case Keenum at quarterback, but their passing offense has been a pleasant surprise, thanks largely to one of the NFL’s best receiving duos in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings rank second in opponent adjusted sack percentage, which has been key this year for the Vikings’ offensive line to give Keenum the time to find his talented receivers. Minnesota’s defense tackles well and rarely allows big plays; they rank highly in the open field tackling statistic from Football Outsiders. One matchup to watch is the speedy Jerick McKinnon against the Rams defense, especially catching balls out of the backfield. The Rams’ passing defense has been susceptible to their opponents’ running backs this year and they are amongst the worst in the NFL at open field tackling. Look for the Vikings to prove they’re a real Super Bowl contender this week against a much improved Rams team.

Pick: Vikings -2

Chiefs vs. Giants (+11)

The Giants have lost their most important player for the entire season in Odell Beckham, Jr., and since his injury, the Giants’ season has looked grim. Their offense, led by Eli Manning, has been mediocre, and their defense has fallen to be one of the worst in the NFL after a great season last year. The public is backing the Chiefs to cover the 11 points on Sunday, with Kansas City receiving 73% of the bets. However, the spread has moved down since favoring the public, which is a classic case of reverse-line movement. The line move signals that the sharp bettors are taking the points and backing the Giants. Although the Chiefs stand at 6-3 and are one of the NFL’s best teams, they haven’t played well on defense this season and have lost three of their last four games. Kansas City has had to rely on their offense at times to win games, which is atypical of their style of play in seasons past. This is mostly due to the MVP-like play of Alex Smith earlier in the season, which seemed unsustainable given his statistics throughout his career so far. He has fallen back to earth in recent weeks, though, and the Chiefs’ offense has regressed because of it. This is a battle between two quarterbacks that have been mostly average for most of their careers, but the outcome could rest in their hands against each team’s below average defense. The Chiefs are a good team, but they aren’t amongst the NFL’s elite that bettors should expect to blow out teams like the Giants.

Pick: Lean Giants +11

California vs. Stanford (-15)

Since most of the college elite have tune-up games this week, I must look elsewhere for betting value. Stanford has burned me once this year already when they lost to Washington State, but they remain one of the most overlooked teams in college football. They rank 22nd in the CFP Ranking, but 14th in ESPN’s FPI, a metric more representative of Stanford’s true level of play accounting for the variability of their win-loss record. Moreover, Stanford has just come off their best win of the season, with Bryce Love leading the way. Love had 166 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the Washington Huskies, who boast the second-best defense in the country by S&P+. This week, California travels to Palo Alto with the 77th ranked defense by S&P+ and 93rd rushing defense. Stanford is only receiving 26% of the bets despite the win over Washington and the Bryce Love mismatch. However, the spread has gone up in favor of California bettors this week, signaling sharp money on the Cardinal. The 15 points is a lot of points to lay, but Stanford has played much better at home this season (491 yards per game at home as opposed to 280 on the road) and they should handle California easily behind their explosive rushing attack. As long as the Stanford band stays off the field while the game is in play, bettors should be confident in an easy win for the Cardinal.

Pick: Stanford -15

BONUS

Thunder vs. Spurs (+1.5)

The Spurs and Thunder have had similar strengths this season so far; both have excelled on the defensive end of the floor. However, both teams have struggled on offense; last season’s leading scorer for the Spurs, Kawhi Leonard, hasn’t played yet this season and the Thunder are yet to find a rhythm with new stars Carmelo Anthony and Paul George. The Thunder are slight road favorites on Friday night, even though they have a worse record so far. FiveThirtyEight gives the Spurs a 57% chance of winning, so it appears that there is some betting value on San Antonio. Although, Oklahoma City is healthy, while the Spurs are missing Leonard, and has loaded up on stars over the offseason, the Spurs have stayed afloat with LaMarcus Aldridge having his best season since signing with San Antonio. The Spurs have played well at home (6-2 this season and 31-10 last season), too. In terms of matchups, Russell Westbrook’s scoring is similar in both wins and losses (about 20 points per game in each), so the Spurs’ key will be to contain the supporting players around him. The Thunder rely more on turnovers for defensive success, while the Spurs lean on their interior defense and rebounding to stop their opponents. This would typically favor the fundamentally disciplined Spurs; expect them to rally behind a rejuvenated Aldridge to get the win at home.

Pick: Spurs +1.5

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal

In an intriguing matchup between top six Premier League teams, Arsenal hosts North London rivals Tottenham on Saturday morning. Arsenal is the favorite, despite Tottenham having played at a higher level throughout the season according to FiveThirtyEight’s SPI. However, Tottenham has struggled with injuries so far, this season; Toby Alderweireld will be unavailable and Harry Kane, Dele Alli, and Hugo Lloris are returning after having missed time due to injuries. It’s unlikely that Tottenham will be at full strength on Saturday which helps to explain why Arsenal is favored. The value in this game lies in picking a draw, which can be boring for a casual bettor to cheer for. But that’s precisely why there’s value in the draw; the public avoids betting on it for its lack in excitement, so the odds are typically under-representing the probability of a draw occurring. On top of that, these teams played to a draw each of the last three teams Arsenal has hosted. This game sets up to be a close, hard fought affair, so put money on the draw, which would pay out better than the typical spread bet in American football.

Pick: Draw +255