2017 Couch Power 10 + Bowl Projections, Week 9
To celebrate this season's inaugural Playoff Rankings release, it's an early edition of the Couch Power 10! Early, yes, but I hope to pre-empt the Playoff Rankings from now until the end of the season, to make this a sort of "how the rankings would look in an ideal world" feature. And yes, it is because I hold a tiny bit of irrational hope that somehow this hidden blog makes its way to the eyeballs of the committee just before their meeting in Gaylord, TX to determine the places of the respective teams.
Anyways, it was another momentous Saturday, with 4 different games between ranked teams. From a wild shootout in West Virginia, to a stunner in Iowa, from a Heisman-level rushing clinic in Indiana, to an absolute thriller in Ohio, the day did not disappoint. To the rankings! Take note, unnamed committee member!
1. Georgia
I know it still seems jarring to see anyone ranked ahead of an unbeaten Alabama, but there's no way anyone but Georgia deserves the top spot. Their 35-point blowout in the rivalry game with Florida solidified that they pass each of the playoff committee's criteria: undefeated? Check. Eye test? The Bulldogs have an average margin of victory of 35 points in SEC play. Quality wins? Try the best win of the season, taking down Notre Dame in South Bend.
2. Alabama
Alabama had a bye week to take a break from, you know, playing nobodies. I get that I'm being harsh on Bama; pound for pound they're the most talented team in football. But it's frustrating to not see the Tide play a single ranked team to this point. They get their first mild test this weekend, a visit from #23 LSU.
3. Notre Dame
The Irish probably will find themselves lower in the committee rankings tomorrow, but there can be little doubt that they are the best one-loss team in the country. Their sole defeat came by 1 point to Georgia, and they have more than atoned for that by demolishing Top 15 teams in back-to-back weeks (USC and now NC State). Their schedule is set up such that should they win it, they will almost surely end up in the playoff. Of course, that also means winning out will be very difficult.
4. Clemson
It's not that a 14-point home win over Georgia Tech does a ton to re-establish confidence in Clemson, but it does mean that in a week where two unbeatens fell, the Tigers' stock rose greatly. The loss to Syracuse doesn't seem al that bad now, and shame on anyone who forgets the defensive domination of Auburn, and the dominant road wins over Louisville and Virginia Tech.
5. Oklahoma
The Sooners still look more like the problematic Oklahoma of recent years than the force they were early on, but a comfortable win outgunning Texas Tech helped get them back on track. You know what else got them back on track? Ohio State beating Penn State. That means Oklahoma now owns a head-to-head road win over the likely Big Ten champion.
6. Ohio State
It's no secret I've been less high on Ohio State than most, and for the first 3 quarters on Saturday, it appeared as if my skepticism was going to be validated. But credit where credit is due: the Buckeyes hung around and, thanks J.T. Barrett engineered a flawless 4th quarter, came back to beat Penn State in incredible fashion. The Bucks are in the driver's seat in the Big Ten East now and control their own playoff destiny. Now, all this being said: can the media stop with the "Best win of the season" talk? The circumstances were impressive, yes, but a. Georgia has the best win of the season, and b. If you're going to laud Ohio State as better than Penn State, doesn't mean that Oklahoma thus also has a better win than Ohio State? THERE IS NO ORDER TO THIS WORLD.
7. Penn State
It hurts to rank the Nittany Lions this low, as they've seemed like the real deal for all but one quarter of one game this season. Offense, defense, special teams- all outplayed Ohio State for the majority of Saturday. And yet- one quarter of having their O-line and D-line dominated might cost them a chance at the playoff. It's a harsh twist of fate, but you just can't let opportunities like a road win against a Top 5 team slip away. Their only hope now is likely for Ohio State to slip up somewhere else in the season, and sneak into the playoff as an impressive 1-loss non-champion (a trend started last year by... Ohio State).
8. Central Florida
The other 3 unbeatens in the country are probably trying to shout over the crowd of 1-loss teams, "Hey!! What's the deal?!?! We haven't lost!" But the truth is, while it is an impressive fact that earns them these 3 have either failed the eye test, the schedule strength test, or both. UCF gets the nod of the 3 for me- they may have the weakest schedule strength, but they own good wins against Maryland, Memphis and Navy, and an average margin of victory of 31 POINTS! Sadly, their rival USF lost for the first time this past weekend, which may cost the Knights their one opportunity to defeat a ranked opponent in the regular season.
9. Miami
Miami may fail the eye test more than any Top 10 team- they have an average margin of victory of 12 points, and are now on a run of one-score wins. This past weekend, they played my beloved Tar Heels, who were 1-7, in command of the worst Power 5 offense in the country, and without 21 players due to injury (including the one offensive bright spot in the season), and the Hurricanes needed a late red-zone fumble to win by 5. That being said, they have the best schedule of the 3, with wins over Toledo, Georgia Tech, Duke and Syracuse.
10. Wisconsin
Wisconsin, the last-ranked unbeaten, falls in that not-so-sweet spot of failing the eye test and having a weak schedule. The fact that the Badgers are unbeaten is hardly surprising, given that their best win to date is probably a 17-point win over 5-3 Florida Atlantic. The fact that the Badgers have needed a late score to beat Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois is very surprising. Wisconsin may very well head into the Big Ten Championship unbeaten, but they need to get better fast to have any shot of winning the thing.
Just missed: Virginia Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, LSU, Freshman sensation Beau Corrales
Bonus: New Year's Six Bowl Predictions
Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl
TCU vs. Wisconsin
Orange Bowl
Miami vs. Ohio State
Peach Bowl
Central Florida vs. Virginia Tech
ROSE BOWL (Semifinal)
Alabama vs. Notre Dame
SUGAR BOWL (Semifinal)
Georgia vs. Clemson