Best Bets: Week of 10/25

This weekend’s football slate features some major college games with playoff implications and some intriguing cross-conference NFL matchups. Below are the biggest games with the best betting value as well as a bonus pick from a sport other than football. (All odds courtesy of Bovada as of October 28th).

Penn State vs. Ohio State (-6)

This is arguably the biggest game of the year so far, as it will likely determine not only the winner of the Big Ten East division, but the frontrunner for the Big Ten title and a spot in the Playoff. At first look, based on Penn State’s recent dominant victory over Michigan, this line would appear to be too high. It appears that bettors have taken advantage because, according to Sports Insights, Penn State is receiving about two-thirds of the bets against the spread. However, the line has moved in favor of Penn State (opening at 5 and moving to 6). This is a case of what’s known in the betting world as "reverse line movement," in which the spread moves in the opposite direction as what the number of bets would imply. Theoretically, if sportsbooks were receiving a majority of bets on one side, they’d likely move the line to give incentive for bettors to bet the other side to mitigate a potential loss. When the line moves in the opposite direction from what the number of bets would lead someone to expect, it’s usually a signal that that side is receiving the majority of money, rather than the majority of bets. This is significant because the professional bettors (known as the sharp bettors) typically wager more money than a casual bettor. So, a team that is receiving a majority of the money but not the majority of bets typically signifies that the sharp bettors and casual bettors disagree on the spread.

The argument for the casual bettors in this game is simple: Penn State is the hot team with led by Heisman favorite Saquon Barkley and the last time Ohio State was in the spotlight, they got beat up by an Oklahoma team that hasn’t looked as prolific since. But, while Penn State has been winning big games on Saturday Night Football, the Buckeyes have quietly been on a hot streak of their own, demolishing their last three opponents (Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers) by an average of 48.7 points per game. Ohio State’s offense has been just as good as the Nittany Lions of late, behind quarterback J.T. Barrett, and their defense has NFL talent in CB Denzel Ward and DE Sam Hubbard. Look for the Buckeyes to put themselves back into the playoff discussion this week.

Pick: Lean Ohio State -6

N.C. State vs. Notre Dame (-7)

After last week’s blowout of USC, the Irish’s stock is rising fast. Notre Dame is now 6-1 against the spread; their only loss was at home against Georgia, where they were favored by 5.5. They’re now up to 9th in the AP Poll and have received much of the media’s attention since their signature win on Saturday. Now, bettors should be careful when betting on Notre Dame games in the future because the lines are likely to be driven up by casual bettors (known as the "public"). However, this week’s game features an N.C. State defense likely unequipped to handle Notre Dame star RB Josh Adams, who has become a dark horse Heisman candidate. Josh Adams is an explosive runner who averages 9.2 yards per carry behind arguably the country’s best offensive line. Notre Dame is fourth in the nation in offensive IsoPPP+, a measure for the explosiveness component in Football Outsiders’ S&P+ ratings created by Bill Connelly. Essentially, the statistic measures the points per play on successful plays, adjusted for opponent. On the other side of the ball, N.C. State ranks 73rd in defensive IsoPPP+; for reference, the two opponents that Josh Adams had the most yards against this season (USC and Boston College) rank in the top fifty. Notre Dame will be able to run the ball all over N.C. State and control the clock, forcing N.C. State to play from behind. The Wolfpack have some nice wins over Florida State and Louisville, but they haven’t been tested in the way they will be in South Bend on Saturday.

Pick: Notre Dame -7

Steelers vs. Lions (+3)

The Steelers offense had lofty expectations going into this season thanks to their lethal trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown, but they’ve disappointed so far. However, they’re 3-1 in the last four weeks-- including a 19-13 victory over the Chiefs in what could be considered a matchup between the NFL’s top two teams at the moment --with Bell breaking the 130-yard mark in all three wins. Pittsburgh is fifth in offensive DVOA, so it’s safe to say they’re still amongst the best offenses in the league despite ranking 13th in points scored. This week they travel to Detroit to play the Lions, whose defense has been their strength so far. Detroit’s linebacking corps, though, has been relatively weak this year apart from rookie Jarrad Davis, and it has shown against some of the league’s best running backs. The Falcons, led by Devonta Freeman, and the Saints, led by Mark Ingram, shredded them for 151 and 193 rushing yards, respectively. Pittsburgh will likely be able to move the ball against the Lions with Bell and Roethlisberger should have plenty of time to throw behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. The Lions rank only 17th in adjusted sack rate and haven’t been able to put much pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. Expect Pittsburgh to take an early lead and force the Lions to throw the ball, which will lead to a shootout. The point total of 45 seems low for a game featuring an elite offense in Pittsburgh taking on a team that often finds themselves having to throw to get back into the game in Detroit.

Pick: Lean Over 45

There isn’t much value on betting spreads in the NFL this week, and there aren’t many marquee matchups to be excited about either. There has been an unusual amount of parity in the NFL this season, to the extent that no clear Super Bowl frontrunners have emerged. However, there has been a clear bottom tier in the league so far with seven truly awful teams: the Colts, Browns, Niners, Cardinals, Jets, Bears, and Dolphins. This week, three of those teams travel to play teams amongst the NFL’s best: the Browns go to London to play the Vikings, the Niners travel to Philadelphia, and the Bears play in New Orleans. For the most part, parlay bets don’t provide much value, because large favorites are bet on heavily by the public, leading to inflated money lines. These matchups are so lopsided, though, that they provide value anyway. The Bears just won a game despite completing only four passes and will face Drew Brees and the third best offense by DVOA. The Eagles have been rolling, and San Francisco is coming off a demoralizing loss to the Cowboys at home. Minnesota has emerged as one of the NFC’s top contenders despite starting Case Keenum (who’s surprisingly held his own so far) at quarterback and losing their best offense weapon in Dalvin Cook. Their stingy defense will be a major mismatch for the Browns putrid offense. Put these three games into a parlay to manufacture some betting value in what is an otherwise slow betting week for the NFL.

Pick: Vikings, Saints, Eagles -140

BONUS

World Golf Championship – HSBC Champions

With football in full force and the NBA and NHL season just kicking off, it’s not an exciting time of the year for golf. But the WGC – HSBC Champions tournament is the first high-profile tournament of the PGA tour season. The world’s best golfers will be in China at Sheshan Golf Club, whose course plays on the longer side at 7,266 yards. Also worth noting is that 5 of the last 6 winners of this tournament had scored 20 under par or better. The best bet to win a tournament like this is a bomber that’s likely to score under par often. The two favorites in this tournament, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama, fit this profile well. Both ranked in the top 5 in strokes-gained tee to green during the 2017 season, which is perhaps the best indicator of which golfer’s game is the best prior to making it to the green. Johnson and Matsuyama have won at Sheshan before, and together, they’ve won the past five WGC events. For a dark horse pick, look to Kyle Stanley who ranked second in both total driving and greens in regulation percentage last season; Sheshan should play to his strengths. Pair Stanley with a pair of chalk bets in Johnson and Matsuyama to maximize the betting value for this tournament.

Pick: Dustin Johnson +800, Hideki Matsuyama +900, and Kyle Stanley +8000